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Patslatt1

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Widespread testing gives confidence in South Korea's COVID-19 statistics. They show very low death rates for the under 60 age bracket compared to older age groups South Korea: coronavirus mortality rate by age 2020 | Statista . Logically, this suggests that the lockdowns for the under 60s is a mistake or at least should be ended very soon. What's the point of locking down people facing a small risk of death when the lockdowns are causing great economic hardship and distress to many, a cure worse than the disease?
 

Myler

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Widespread testing gives confidence in South Korea's COVID-19 statistics. They show very low death rates for the under 60 age bracket compared to older age groups South Korea: coronavirus mortality rate by age 2020 | Statista . Logically, this suggests that the lockdowns for the under 60s is a mistake or at least should be ended very soon. What's the point of locking down people facing a small risk of death when the lockdowns are causing great economic hardship and distress to many, a cure worse than the disease?
I'd guess that no-one has really thought enough of the huge damage being done to our societies by the response.

I actually don't understand the degree of subjugation to medical authority at present. Always bad to be subject to unaccountable authority.

Huge decisions about who gets to pay costs, and who benefits. Like our private hospitals getting a financial dugout, just like that. Like consultants in those same hospitals apparently thinking they can hold out for more.

And others told to stay at home, and losing their jobs. With no real assessment or thought about the risks and costs involved.

If they get away with this bullshit, homo sapiens truly deserves to lose the right to vote. Its like an Irish Met Office emergency gone viral.
 

Ardillaun

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I'd guess that no-one has really thought enough of the huge damage being done to our societies by the response.

I actually don't understand the degree of subjugation to medical authority at present. Always bad to be subject to unaccountable authority.

Huge decisions about who gets to pay costs, and who benefits. Like our private hospitals getting a financial dugout, just like that. Like consultants in those same hospitals apparently thinking they can hold out for more.

And others told to stay at home, and losing their jobs. With no real assessment or thought about the risks and costs involved.

If they get away with this bullshit, homo sapiens truly deserves to lose the right to vote. Its like an Irish Met Office emergency gone viral.

I don’t think this crisis or the response has much to do with private rooms, given that it’s much the same in many different countries and health systems. Spell out what you want to see happen and what the costs, like deaths for example, and benefits might be.
 

owedtojoy

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Statistically,the risk runs the other way.

In what way?

As a comment on the OP, "suggests" is not strong enough to risk the lives of our citizens. We need something stronger than "suggests"

I do think the way forward is managing "clusters" like (at the moment) care homes. There may be others around anyplace people congregate, even families.

What we are doing now is preventing clusters, exccept in care homes. As we relax controls, new clusters will emerge.

If we can learn to detect clusters quickly then that is progress. The way is to do what South Korea did - massive testing, tracing and quarantining.
 

rainmaker

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Widespread testing gives confidence in South Korea's COVID-19 statistics. They show very low death rates for the under 60 age bracket compared to older age groups South Korea: coronavirus mortality rate by age 2020 | Statista . Logically, this suggests that the lockdowns for the under 60s is a mistake or at least should be ended very soon. What's the point of locking down people facing a small risk of death when the lockdowns are causing great economic hardship and distress to many, a cure worse than the disease?
Not locking down may not be the reason for a low death rate . In fact, common sense alone says it wont be.

Imagine how much worse the death rate in Spain and Italy would be without such measures.
 

Myler

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I don’t think this crisis or the response has much to do with private rooms, given that it’s much the same in many different countries and health systems. Spell out what you want too see happen and what the costs, like deaths for example, and benefits might be.
Spell out the costs, in terms of deaths, of up to a 25% drop in GDP in pretty much every major economy? I'm honoured that you've so much faith in my skill.

I can't remember. What figures are our Government estimating those social costs to be?
 

Ardillaun

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Spell out the costs, in terms of deaths, of up to a 25% drop in GDP in pretty much every major economy? I'm honoured that you've so much faith in my skill.

I can't remember. What figures are our Government estimating those social costs to be?

We can all see the damage being done to the world economy. There will be excess deaths no matter what we do and we are working with preliminary information about the virus. The testing we have for the virus and the antibodies it evokes remains unreliable with lots of false positives and false negatives, and our knowledge of any immunity conferred is necessarily poor.

Much of Fauci's time outside of the White House briefing room is focused on analysing progress on blood tests that aim to tell who was exposed to the coronavirus - whether they knew they were sick or not - by spotting antibodies their immune system formed to fight back. Those tests will be crucial in determining when and how people can go back to work.

The problem: Most of the tests have not yet been proven to work well, Fauci cautioned. He noted that some countries bought millions of antibody tests only to learn they didn't work.

Fauci, the infectious disease chief at the National Institutes of Health, said his staff is working with the Food and Drug Administration to validate those tests. That means proving what level of antibodies it takes to really be immune; if particular types of antibodies are key rather than an overall level; and how long that protection lasts.

"We're going to have to find out the answer to all of those questions," Fauci stressed. "I know people are anxious to say, 'Well, we'll give you a passport that says you're antibody-positive, you can go to work and you're protected.' The worst possibility that would happen is if we're actually wrong about that [and those people get infected]."


Do you propose just opening up the economy again completely? I think most people would suggest a gradual opening up in a way that protects the most vulnerable. At a minimum, nursing home residents and workers would need to be tested on a regular basis. With a decent antibody test, the safest people to let back first would be otherwise healthy people under, say, 40 who are IgG positive for the virus, probably have some immunity and are probably no longer infectious.
 

Ardillaun

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I'd like to see evidence for that too. The deceased former residents of all those affected nursing homes were not likely to have been to Cheltenham or on pub crawls around Temple Bar the same weekend as all those Italian rugby fans descended on the place.

I was going to use the very same metaphor of decrepit geezers on the lash. Great minds...
 

Pabilito

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Widespread testing gives confidence in South Korea's COVID-19 statistics. They show very low death rates for the under 60 age bracket compared to older age groups South Korea: coronavirus mortality rate by age 2020 | Statista . Logically, this suggests that the lockdowns for the under 60s is a mistake or at least should be ended very soon. What's the point of locking down people facing a small risk of death when the lockdowns are causing great economic hardship and distress to many, a cure worse than the disease?

I was under 60 on Sunday.. but just over that hill yesterday.. and got a bit locked for my 60th birthday yesterday while I can still seemingly get away with it.. happy lockdown lads.. cheers!
 

making waves

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Widespread testing gives confidence in South Korea's COVID-19 statistics. They show very low death rates for the under 60 age bracket compared to older age groups South Korea: coronavirus mortality rate by age 2020 | Statista . Logically, this suggests that the lockdowns for the under 60s is a mistake or at least should be ended very soon. What's the point of locking down people facing a small risk of death when the lockdowns are causing great economic hardship and distress to many, a cure worse than the disease?
Patslatt's warped logic is back at play again :rolleyes:
 

Dame_Enda

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I would support a partial lifting of the lockdown but only partial.

Dublin is the engine of the economy. But its also the source of a majority of infections. This poses a dilemma.

I think young people without underlying health conditions who live with other young people without underlying health conditions should be allowed back to work and school. They should not be allowed visit the elderly or people with serious underlying health conditions yet.

People with respiratory problems like asthma, or compromised immune systems e.g. HIV, leukemia, cancer, should remain in self-isolation.

What about the middle aged? The average age of hospitalisation is 48 and for admission to ICU is around 61 or 68 depending on the day.
 

Patslatt1

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I'd like to see evidence for that too. The deceased former residents of all those affected nursing homes were not likely to have been to Cheltenham or on pub crawls around Temple Bar the same weekend as all those Italian rugby fans descended on the place.
Newspaper and TV sensationalism playing to emotions can hobble rational thinking about Covid.
 

JCR

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Widespread testing gives confidence in South Korea's COVID-19 statistics. They show very low death rates for the under 60 age bracket compared to older age groups South Korea: coronavirus mortality rate by age 2020 | Statista . Logically, this suggests that the lockdowns for the under 60s is a mistake or at least should be ended very soon. What's the point of locking down people facing a small risk of death when the lockdowns are causing great economic hardship and distress to many, a cure worse than the disease?

What is your precise area of expertise and scientific research that qualifies you to make such a statement?
 

Patslatt1

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In what way?

As a comment on the OP, "suggests" is not strong enough to risk the lives of our citizens. We need something stronger than "suggests"

I do think the way forward is managing "clusters" like (at the moment) care homes. There may be others around anyplace people congregate, even families.

What we are doing now is preventing clusters, exccept in care homes. As we relax controls, new clusters will emerge.

If we can learn to detect clusters quickly then that is progress. The way is to do what South Korea did - massive testing, tracing and quarantining.
The stats showing very low risks of deaths for the under 60s undermine the argument for locking them down.
 

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