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S+P: Bailout may go from €50bn to €90bn. Last of our cash goes into the furnace.


He3

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As this news seeps out, the government is reduced to throwing the last of our cash into the furnace. Next to go will be our Pension Fund. Robert Maxwell was in the ha'penny places.

Unfortunately, things aren't as bad as Mr Lenihan told us last week. They are almost certainly much worse.

First things first. Even the €34bn cost of bailing out Anglo, which the government insists is a "worst-case scenario", will almost certainly be exceeded. That is the view of ratings agency Standard & Poor's, whose bearish stance on the likely cost of the Irish bank bailout has consistently been vindicated by events.

For what it is worth, some analysts now reckon that bailing out Anglo will cost up to €40bn.

[...]

Between them the six Irish-owned banks had €99bn of residential mortgages on their books at the end of June. With house prices now down by at least 50pc from the peak and still falling, a significant writedown in the bank's mortgage loans books is inevitable.

Even a 20pc writedown would cost the banks a further €20bn in fresh loan losses.

The combined €50bn that AIB, Bank of Ireland and the Permo have lent to SMEs and other companies must also be vulnerable to further, substantial writedowns as is their €11.5bn of personal lending. And as for the banks' non-Nama property and construction lending, I'd be very surprised if it wasn't cause for a few sleepless nights among the surviving bank bosses.

Add it all up and it is clear that even the €55bn estimate for the cost of bailing out the banking system will be comfortably exceeded, with Standard & Poor's now putting the likely figure at €90bn.

The way things are going, I suspect that the S&P estimate could well turn out to be a floor, below which the cost won't fall, rather than a ceiling, above which it won't rise.
Markets are right to be worried -- 'final' €50bn to fix banks looks like tip of iceberg - Irish, Business - Independent.ie
 
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HarshBuzz

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neiphin

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absconded

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Will somebody stop these idiots in government please!

They are determined to destroy it even for productive sectors of society. Why on earth are innocent people being forced to pay back for lack of government oversight of the economy and bad investments by wealthy business people.

Sorry, that was a silly statement/question petunia
 

olamp

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Will somebody stop these idiots in government please!

They are determined to destroy it even for productive sectors of society. Why on earth are innocent people being forced to pay back for lack of government oversight of the economy and bad investments by wealthy business people.

Sorry, that was a silly statement/question petunia
Weep for our beautiful country .It has been destroyed by incompetence ,greed and most of all, corruption
 

neiphin

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September 1913

What need you being come to sense,
But fumble in a greasy till,
And add the halfpence to the pence
And prayer to shivering prayer, until
You have dried the marrow from the bone?
For men were born to pray and save:
Romantic Ireland's dead and gone,
It's with O'Leary in the grave.

Yet they were of a different kind,
The names that stilled your childish play,
They have gone about the world like wind,
But little time had they to pray
For whom the hangman's rope was spun,
And what, God help us, could they save?
Romantic Ireland's dead and gone,
It's with O'Leary in the grave.

Was it for this the wild geese spread
They grey wing upon every tide;
For this that all the blood was shed,
For this Edward Fitzgerald died,
And Robert Emmet and Wolfe Tone,
All that delirium of the brave?
Romantic Ireland's dead and gone,
It's with O'Leary in the grave.

Yet could we turn the years again,
And call those exiles as they were
In all their loneliness and pain,
You'd cry, "Some woman's yellow hair
Has maddened every mother's son":
They weighed so lightly what they gave
But let them be they're dead and gone,
They're with O'Leary in the grave.
 

roc_

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Tip of the iceberg is right. When the figures and realities first started being broadly explicated back in 2007, many people not in thrall to state propaganda (myself included) were talking about the inevitability of debt having to be liquidised in one way or another in the midst of inevitable economic downturn and the need to attain economic equilibrium - in not just the sub prime and property development loans, but also consumer mortgages, credit cards, corporate bonds, credit defaults swaps, FX derivatives, emerging market loans, commodity derivatives... A lot deflated, more to deflate as we might say now. Didn't think it would take such a long stretch of time though. But it's unbelievable the time lag in knowledge of these kinds of things hitting home with the general public. It says a lot about the kind of media we have.
 
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absconded

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Weep for our beautiful country .It has been destroyed by incompetence ,greed and most of all, corruption
FF/PD/GP knew where this was leading to even during bubble times.
They placated everyone by handing out "social partner" bribes left right and centre. Quangos, Unions, NGOs, Workers etc etc etc. Everyone was showered with money from revenues which were not sustainable.

Who benefited while we were all being duped into believing we had a productive model economy?

Friends of FF, Bankers, Legal profession, Property Developers, Opposition Politicians etc. A tangled web.

The showering of funds continues despite vague warnings of them ending sometime in the future. (Still no Austerity despite a huge deficit)

Who gains now?

Friends of FF, Bankers, Legal profession, Property Developers, Opposition Politicians etc. Practically the same tangled web.

You & I little people are paying the debt for the previous and continuing party and FF still have not applied the brakes.

They gain & we pay.

They won´t stop till they´ve got this country into a babylonian captivity and/or collapsed the Euro.

FF is a mafia, and we are sheep.
 

Ulster-Lad

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Oct 26, 2006
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10,092
As this news seeps out, the government is reduced to throwing the last of our cash into the furnace. Next to go will be our Pension Fund. Robert Maxwell was in the ha'penny places.

Looks like the pension fund just went!!!!!!!!!!

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan will use a €20bn cash pile to stave off a Greek-style rescue, as the Government taps the funds to avoid paying record rates to borrow.
Government to use cash pile to avoid record borrowing rates - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

The article does NOT say where the money came from. :mad:
 

absconded

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Messages
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Looks like the pension fund just went!!!!!!!!!!



Government to use cash pile to avoid record borrowing rates - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

The article does NOT say where the money came from. :mad:
Is there no end to what they´ll do to save their own skins and their developer buddies.

I can see them running out of the Dail under armed guard and cover of darkness in a years time when that €20 Billion has run out, their ministerial cars stuffed with silverware from the Dail restaurant.
 

WTTR

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Website
www.johnfhiggins.eu
Between them the six Irish-owned banks had €99bn of residential mortgages on their books at the end of June.
This is an area which has being baffling me for ages. If you consider some of the claims that various Financial Companies had at the top of the bubble for their share of the market; then the above figure seems way of the mark. 20% of the whole mortgage market was a frequent claim.

Now, every mortgage possible was hived off in securitisation deals. Special Purpose Vehicles etc were all the rage; solicitors earned a package putting these schemes together. The attractiveness of securitising mortgages is that these would then be suddenly off balance sheet; initially even the CB did not catch these deals: at one stage in my estimation there was a difference of c €25Bn. The Asset Covered Securities were issued, but the associated mortgages stayed on the bank books.

There is over €80Bn in securitised and ABS securities outstanding on the ISE. If all these are covered in the above €99Bn figure, I somehow doubt!

It was this mortgage madness that caused the whole mess. Our bankers, politicians, developers would have had a dream that all their NAMA loans, etc would end up as another €300Bn around the necks of our young men and women; despite the pleas from a few citizens around 2000-03 to desist from this growing mortgage madness.

Bottom line: I do not believe that the above figure for outstanding mortgages is the total figure owing by our young people. But if the auditors stand by these figures and have not made a bad debt provision for off balance sheet items; then I guess we will have to accept the figure. :confused:
 

Broke

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Joined
Oct 1, 2010
Messages
480
FF/PD/GP knew where this was leading to even during bubble times.
They placated everyone by handing out "social partner" bribes left right and centre. Quangos, Unions, NGOs, Workers etc etc etc. Everyone was showered with money from revenues which were not sustainable.

Who benefited while we were all being duped into believing we had a productive model economy?

Friends of FF, Bankers, Legal profession, Property Developers, Opposition Politicians etc. A tangled web.

The showering of funds continues despite vague warnings of them ending sometime in the future. (Still no Austerity despite a huge deficit)

Who gains now?

Friends of FF, Bankers, Legal profession, Property Developers, Opposition Politicians etc. Practically the same tangled web.

You & I little people are paying the debt for the previous and continuing party and FF still have not applied the brakes.

They gain & we pay.

They won´t stop till they´ve got this country into a babylonian captivity and/or collapsed the Euro.

FF is a mafia, and we are sheep.
If only we had some body to lead the people out on to the streets to take on the establishment before it is to late for our country.There is so much anger out there,but people don't know what to do to stop them.
 

olamp

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Joined
Mar 24, 2010
Messages
1,452
FF/PD/GP knew where this was leading to even during bubble times.
They placated everyone by handing out "social partner" bribes left right and centre. Quangos, Unions, NGOs, Workers etc etc etc. Everyone was showered with money from revenues which were not sustainable.

Who benefited while we were all being duped into believing we had a productive model economy?

Friends of FF, Bankers, Legal profession, Property Developers, Opposition Politicians etc. A tangled web.

The showering of funds continues despite vague warnings of them ending sometime in the future. (Still no Austerity despite a huge deficit)

Who gains now?

Friends of FF, Bankers, Legal profession, Property Developers, Opposition Politicians etc. Practically the same tangled web.

You & I little people are paying the debt for the previous and continuing party and FF still have not applied the brakes.

They gain & we pay.

They won´t stop till they´ve got this country into a babylonian captivity and/or collapsed the Euro.

FF is a mafia, and we are sheep.


+1
 

GDPR

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"The reaction to Mr Lenihan's announcement was immediate and severe. The government was forced to cancel the last three monthly bond auctions of 2010 as international investors insisted that the government devise a credible fiscal strategy;"

Is that a fact?

No, actually, it isn't.

The reaction from the markets was reasonably positive and the decision not to sell bonds again until the New Year was taken by the NTMA before the total bank recap was released to the markets and announced by the Government at the same time.
 

Squire Allworthy

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"The reaction to Mr Lenihan's announcement was immediate and severe. The government was forced to cancel the last three monthly bond auctions of 2010 as international investors insisted that the government devise a credible fiscal strategy;"

Is that a fact?

No, actually, it isn't.

The reaction from the markets was reasonably positive and the decision not to sell bonds again until the New Year was taken by the NTMA before the total bank recap was released to the markets and announced by the Government at the same time.
Positive, more like becalmed?

I would wait until January before I made comments one way or the other. The yield on 10yr bonds is still over 6.4% still very high. Need a lot of good news in the interim. Budget may assist. We know the ECB is intervening. The delay is a gamble, that may work but if the markets turn negative Ireland faces some major decisions and will have very little room for manoeuvre. Need a very well received budget and some good news on the Banking end of the dismal equation!!!!!!!
 

GDPR

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Positive, more like becalmed?

I would wait until January before I made comments one way or the other. The yield on 10yr bonds is still over 6.4% still very high. Need a lot of good news in the interim. Budget may assist. We know the ECB is intervening. The delay is a gamble, that may work but if the markets turn negative Ireland faces some major decisions and will have very little room for manoeuvre. Need a very well received budget and some good news on the Banking end of the dismal equation!!!!!!!
Did the rate come down after the announcement? If so, I'd stand over "reasonably positive", but that is not really the point. The point is the article was wrong, the reaction was not "severe" by any stretch, someone is trying to twist the reality to suit their own agenda. Any comment to make on that?

Do we still have a long way to go? Yes we do.
 

Gemlarkin

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Joined
Oct 2, 2010
Messages
239
Tens of thousands of Buy to regret proberties will be abondoned by their owners

Tens of thousands of Buy to regret proberties will be abondoned by their owners, which will precipitate tens of billions more losses for the banks which we are told are ours.

No one told me the banks were ours when they were handing out dividends.
 

CarnivalOfAction

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Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
16,545
"The reaction to Mr Lenihan's announcement was immediate and severe. The government was forced to cancel the last three monthly bond auctions of 2010 as international investors insisted that the government devise a credible fiscal strategy;"

Is that a fact?

No, actually, it isn't.

The reaction from the markets was reasonably positive and the decision not to sell bonds again until the New Year was taken by the NTMA before the total bank recap was released to the markets and announced by the Government at the same time.
Because of this scam:
How The ECB Directly And Indirectly Monetized All Irish September Treasury Auctions | zero hedge
 

He3

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Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
17,094
Lenihan talks turnarounds on Bloomberg

Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan said today he is "absolutely" sure the country will not need to seek a bailout from the IMF and European Union.

In an interview recorded for Bloomberg Television, Mr Lenihan said Ireland "was not in a balance of payments deficit position" but admitted the country did have "real fiscal and banking problems to address".

"We had a big contraction last year. We contracted by 10 per cent in GNP terms in one year. We got it back to zero again this year. That's quite a turnaround," he said.

Lenihan 'sure' Ireland will not require IMF/EU bailout - The Irish Times - Mon, Oct 11, 2010
 

He3

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