SBP/Red C poll: 29/3/09

TheJudge

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FF bounce can be partly explained by the better national mood due to recent sporting successes. SF drop largely down to recent tragedies in NI I feel.
 


Murra

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Marvellous result for the Greens, wha'? :-D
 

marmurr1916

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Agreed, it seems as if FG are sitting on a rock hard 30%. Question is can they get higher?
Not sure about that. In November's RED C poll, FG had 35%, FF 30%, Labour 14%, SF 8%, Greens 5%, Others 8%.

Unfortunately, it's actually FF's support that's more stable in the 25-30% range.
 

Chrisco

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FF bounce due to a number of factors:

There is a perception out there that they might be just be getting their act together a bit
Dail on a break, allowing for soft focus Paddys Day coverage with Cowan and Obama, bringing peace and prosperity and blarney to all nations, etc, etc..
FF Ard Feis
When the govt goes to sleep, the Opposition seems to go into a permanent slumber. Where have they been for the first 2 weeks of March? The bottom line is that the Dail is one big club at the end of the day for all parties...how many TD's want to be out knocking on doors flogging the same oul ********************e when they have cushy leather seats for 5 years, plus a few little expenses of course.
The perception that there is no alternative. This is a massive failure of the main opposition parties. After all the press launches and initatives, FG are only 3 points ahead of FF, and this is when FF are in power for the longest consecutive streak since the 1960's. Just unbelievable.
I think it is much more simple - as I predicted here http://www.politics.ie/current-affa...ry-provide-boost-fianna-fail.html#post1511619, FF would be up largely on the back of the feel-good effect from the rugby result. The bounce was a couple of points more than I expected, but I should imagine they will be down a few points again in the next poll as it wears off and the effects of the Budget kick in.
 

Chrisco

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(except for FG vote which is unbelievable stable over the last few polls, to an almost statistically improbable degree)
It would have to be stable within that MOE for more than 95 consecutive polls before it would be statistically improbable.
 

wombat

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Hard to explain the drop in Labour support, they're still telling people what they want to hear. Maybe its a backlash against the threat of public service strikes. There is a real split between private & public service workers which is being ignored by the union leadership.
 

SPN

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This is actually a very important poll result when you look at the big picture.

Fianna Fail AND Fine Gael (and the Greens) have consistently said that we need to take hard measures in the short term to enable us to get back up and running quickly. Labour has waffled on about the injustice of this, the unfairness of that, and trotted out a great line in name calling (fatcats, bailouts, etc), but has never set out the hard numbers of what they propose.

This poll shows that the people might now have realised that the consensus approach to go straight to 1987, and leave out the waste and structural damage caused by Labour in the mid80s - is resonating with a majority of people.

Hopefully this will hold up after the budget.
 

thebig C

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Well, the government usually gets a bounce once the Dail is not sitting. However, 5% seems like alot. I think its down to the following factors:

Firstly, all talk of the Economy was cast aside after the shootings in the North. Allowing FF to revert into Peace Process mode. This facilitated dredging up soft focus stories about all their hard fought negotiations to win peace! So its an ill wind that blows no good!!

Secondly, when you look at the corresponding Labour drop, you would have to wonder is this connected with the Unions returning to the table. In other words the cushy public sector feel a deal might still be done so they can crawl back to FF who provided their jobs in the first place. Weight is added to this when you realise that Labours surge can around the time Partnership talks collapsed.

Also, due to St Patricks Day and the sporting achievements the National mood has lifted. A slight return of the "we're great aren't we" Celtic Tiger smugness. Even this would be periperal.

C
 

sethcohen

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Can I say this is just wonderful. Watch the FG Vote crumble in the coming weeks. Labour will gain from Enda's inability to lead.

By the way the bile pouring from the anti-FF muppets that post here is just great really great. It is so FUNNY!!!

Na Na Na, NA NA NA HEY HEY WE ARE BACK !!!!!!!!


PS Seth is taking a break from p.ie for a few weeks after some careless posting -- call it a self imposed suspension.
 

Chrisco

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Can I say this is just wonderful. Watch the FG Vote crumble in the coming weeks. Labour will gain from Enda's inability to lead.

By the way the bile pouring from the anti-FF muppets that post here is just great really great. It is so FUNNY!!!

Na Na Na, NA NA NA HEY HEY WE ARE BACK !!!!!!!!


PS Seth is taking a break from p.ie for a few weeks after some careless posting -- call it a self imposed suspension.
Fianna Fáil on 28% = 'We are back'.

Speaks volumes!
 

Right is right

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Can I say this is just wonderful. Watch the FG Vote crumble in the coming weeks. Labour will gain from Enda's inability to lead.

By the way the bile pouring from the anti-FF muppets that post here is just great really great. It is so FUNNY!!!

Na Na Na, NA NA NA HEY HEY WE ARE BACK !!!!!!!!


PS Seth is taking a break from p.ie for a few weeks after some careless posting -- call it a self imposed suspension.
I know it is difficult for you to comprehend but its Labours support that dropped and not FG's even with all the praise that Labour has been getting etc so why will FG's start falling and Labours start rising??
 

Cyberspaced

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Can I say this is just wonderful. Watch the FG Vote crumble in the coming weeks. Labour will gain from Enda's inability to lead.

By the way the bile pouring from the anti-FF muppets that post here is just great really great. It is so FUNNY!!!

Na Na Na, NA NA NA HEY HEY WE ARE BACK !!!!!!!!


PS Seth is taking a break from p.ie for a few weeks after some careless posting -- call it a self imposed suspension.
You do wonders for your party.
 

Kf

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Not entirely unexpected

- they just don't connect with enough of the Irish Working/Lower middle class base to be able to gain traction.

Ominous for MLD if this is the way it pans out on 5 June BTW....
Perhaps. That said just back from a canvass where twice it was raised about the killings in the north in a critical way. Both people were of the view that SF were supportive or the cause of the killings.

Not sure though how widespread that would be.

I am awaiting the comments of my political morale officer, Mr F Actual, to lift me and give me a line to believe :)
 

pfkf

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Oct 3, 2006
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Can I say this is just wonderful. Watch the FG Vote crumble in the coming weeks. Labour will gain from Enda's inability to lead.

By the way the bile pouring from the anti-FF muppets that post here is just great really great. It is so FUNNY!!!

Na Na Na, NA NA NA HEY HEY WE ARE BACK !!!!!!!!


PS Seth is taking a break from p.ie for a few weeks after some careless posting -- call it a self imposed suspension.

Your down 14 points since 2007, your not back yet, you've had a bounce, unfortunatley for your going to be in for a long sharp fall over thenext 8 weeks.
 
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As I predicted on another thread. We have had a unprecedented downturn in the global econonmy, a correction in the construction industry here and some unfounded allegation of wrong doing by some of our supporters. It is inevitable therefore that some of our softer support frays at the edges. However, the electorate increasing realizes that corrective action has to be taken. The poll suggests that reality is dawning.

FF now established in a 25-30% range will go higher at the economy bottoms. Back to 35% by the time of the next election.
FG stuck between 30-35%. Some respect because they are trying to do the right thing in their own cack-handed way. Now established as the leading opposition party.
Labour going back to 10% in jig time. no policies, no message, and a collection of has beens
Greens: suspect about 2-3% of their support is soft FF Doing well as our allies in govt.
SF-same as Labour, going nowhere
Indos 10%-some of this is FF in disguise, will come home in due curse.

If there was an election today, seats would fall as follows.
FF 65, FG 60, Lab 22, Green 6, SF 6 other 7. however the election will not be today & as our support squeezes back up a bit, we will be back in power with a reduced majority. The show goes on!!!!
 


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