As I predicted on another thread. We have had a unprecedented downturn in the global econonmy, a correction in the construction industry here and some unfounded allegation of wrong doing by some of our supporters. It is inevitable therefore that some of our softer support frays at the edges. However, the electorate increasing realizes that corrective action has to be taken. The poll suggests that reality is dawning.
FF now established in a 25-30% range will go higher at the economy bottoms. Back to 35% by the time of the next election.
FG stuck between 30-35%. Some respect because they are trying to do the right thing in their own cack-handed way. Now established as the leading opposition party.
Labour going back to 10% in jig time. no policies, no message, and a collection of has beens
Greens: suspect about 2-3% of their support is soft FF Doing well as our allies in govt.
SF-same as Labour, going nowhere
Indos 10%-some of this is FF in disguise, will come home in due curse.
If there was an election today, seats would fall as follows.
FF 65, FG 60, Lab 22, Green 6, SF 6 other 7. however the election will not be today & as our support squeezes back up a bit, we will be back in power with a reduced majority. The show goes on!!!!
If there were an election today, FF would get about 50 to 55 seats, in line with what a party on 27-28% might expect. At least 10 less than you count and could be 15 less. Could be 25 seats less than they have at present.