SBP/Red C poll: 29/3/09

Supermanpolitician

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As I predicted on another thread. We have had a unprecedented downturn in the global econonmy, a correction in the construction industry here and some unfounded allegation of wrong doing by some of our supporters. It is inevitable therefore that some of our softer support frays at the edges. However, the electorate increasing realizes that corrective action has to be taken. The poll suggests that reality is dawning.

FF now established in a 25-30% range will go higher at the economy bottoms. Back to 35% by the time of the next election.
FG stuck between 30-35%. Some respect because they are trying to do the right thing in their own cack-handed way. Now established as the leading opposition party.
Labour going back to 10% in jig time. no policies, no message, and a collection of has beens
Greens: suspect about 2-3% of their support is soft FF Doing well as our allies in govt.
SF-same as Labour, going nowhere
Indos 10%-some of this is FF in disguise, will come home in due curse.

If there was an election today, seats would fall as follows.
FF 65, FG 60, Lab 22, Green 6, SF 6 other 7. however the election will not be today & as our support squeezes back up a bit, we will be back in power with a reduced majority. The show goes on!!!!

If there were an election today, FF would get about 50 to 55 seats, in line with what a party on 27-28% might expect. At least 10 less than you count and could be 15 less. Could be 25 seats less than they have at present.
 


Likely Lad

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By the way the bile pouring from the anti-FF muppets that post here is just great really great. It is so FUNNY!!!

Na Na Na, NA NA NA HEY HEY WE ARE BACK !!!!!!!!
Funny? The decent, non-corrupt citizens of this country are anti-Fianna Fáil because we are victims of your organisation's scumbag thuggery that is resulting in us losing our jobs and seeing are our standard of living being progressively eroded for the sole benefit of your back pockets and your property developer and banker buddies.

But that's beyond comprehension for filth like you, the more yourself and the likes eurocitizan keep on posting your retarded spoof you will only reinvigroate the anti-Fianna Fáil/anti-corruption sentiment that is out there amongst 72% of this country's rational intelligent population and that will be only to the detriment of your power hungry ilk this June.
 

dotski_w_

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Funny? The decent, non-corrupt citizens of this country are anti-Fianna Fáil because we are victims of your organisation's scumbag thuggery that is resulting in us losing our jobs and seeing are our standard of living being progressively eroded for the sole benefit of your back pockets and your property developer and banker buddies.

But that's beyond comprehension for filth like you, the more yourself and the likes eurocitizan keep on posting your retarded spoof you will only reinvigroate the anti-Fianna Fáil/anti-corruption sentiment that is out there amongst 72% of this country's rational intelligent population and that will be only to the detriment of your power hungry ilk this June.
The two of you should get a room......
 

wombat

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Must say I'm relieved that Labour didn't continue to rise as it may stop FG & Labour from fighting with each other rather than focussing on FF. They are going to be hard to dislodge, there is too much complacency on the part of FF's opponents - they will have to be dragged screaming from power - any idea that they're finished is dangerous wishful thinking.
 
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kerrynorth

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FWIW, uniform swing would probably result in the following breakdown (IMO);

FG 63
FF 51
LP 28
GP 8
SF 6
The Labour and Green figures are a bit high I think.
 
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If there were an election today, FF would get about 50 to 55 seats, in line with what a party on 27-28% might expect. At least 10 less than you count and could be 15 less. Could be 25 seats less than they have at present.
You are forgetting seat bonus for bigger parties. FF would not be below 55 & could get to 65. In reality, I think we would get low 30% off this poll in an election. As I said about 20% of the green vote is in constituencies where they would not have a chance. ditto with the indos & to a lesser extent with the Shinners. We could be expected to get a lot of this through the counts. It is not going to FG.

We have taken everthing that circumstance & the opposition has thrown at us. As Ali said to Foreman- "is that all you have got?"
 

Supermanpolitician

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The Labour and Green figures are a bit high I think.
Agree, can't see Gormley holding his seat if FG run a second candidate. Could down as low as 4.
FF and FG depend on the bounce of the ball. Given Cowen's abject failure, I can't see him pulling it out of the fire the way Liar Pants did the last time. He has no appeal.

FG on 63 is probably reasonable but if the bounce is good, could be close to 70. Labour on 28 is not too far off as they will get loads of FG transfers, even if they don't enter a pact.
 

Supermanpolitician

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You are forgetting seat bonus for bigger parties. FF would not be below 55 & could get to 65. In reality, I think we would get low 30% off this poll in an election. As I said about 20% of the green vote is in constituencies where they would not have a chance. ditto with the indos & to a lesser extent with the Shinners. We could be expected to get a lot of this through the counts. It is not going to FG.

We have taken everthing that circumstance & the opposition has thrown at us. As Ali said to Foreman- "is that all you have got?"
No I'm not. 55 seats is about the max that a big party can get if below 28%. FF are somehow counting on FG not to maintain but for a year now FG have been the only show in town when it comes to leading the next government.
 

wombat

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We have taken everthing that circumstance & the opposition has thrown at us. As Ali said to Foreman- "is that all you have got?"
Wishful thinking - the Budget still has to come as has an election campaign - the opposition's job has only started. FG are starting to realise that it is up to the team to prove they are more competant than the govt. Remember, FF led by Jack Lynch were defeated by FG led by Liam Cosgrave & Labour led by Brendan Corish because they got their act together. Brian Cowen is no Jack Lynch.
 

kerrynorth

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You are forgetting seat bonus for bigger parties. FF would not be below 55 & could get to 65. In reality, I think we would get low 30% off this poll in an election. As I said about 20% of the green vote is in constituencies where they would not have a chance. ditto with the indos & to a lesser extent with the Shinners. We could be expected to get a lot of this through the counts. It is not going to FG.

We have taken everthing that circumstance & the opposition has thrown at us. As Ali said to Foreman- "is that all you have got?"
The seat bonus will be with FG rather than FF this time. It will be FG winning 2 out 3 in the 3 seaters and 2 out of 4 in the 4 seaters etc. Plus everyone is forgeting that Red C do not adjust their figures to reflect the fact that the don't knows in Ireland do not breakdown proportionally. MRBI do make this adjustment so when looking at these figures take 2-3 from FF and add maybe 2 to FG to get an accurate reflection. So in fact the actual figures should read something like FG 33% and FF 25%.
 

dotski_w_

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The Labour and Green figures are a bit high I think.
LP, depends on the spread, if it's uniform I think this would be it, but they could do slightly better or slightly worse depending on a few close constituencies (not many mind). That's not surprising, as they got 10.1% of the vote last time and 20 seats, 28 on 17% would mean just 8 more seats for a 6.9% increase in the vote, which is actually not great (but that's how it comes out when I run the figures - if I was an LP version of One Acre capitalist I'd be claiming 40 seats on this!)

GP, again, depends on the split of the increase, and certainly there'd be a few close ones, but I'm assuming that they'll do well on transfers of a few 2nd FF candidates who will be eliminated before them. But it's an impressive poll either way for a govt party - up from 4.7% in the last GE so this is where I'd call it.

Of course, long way to go before any of this is tested - there could be another poll next week contradicting this one!
 

dotski_w_

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Agree, can't see Gormley holding his seat if FG run a second candidate.
I can't see that on these figures. Uniform swing in DSE would see them around 18%. FG would be over a quota, but not nearly enough to be challenging for a 2nd seat.

Of course, FG could get 40% in the next election (who knows?), which would make a 2nd seat likely here, but it's these figures we're discussing.
 

SPN

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FG are starting to realise that it is up to the team to prove they are more competant than the govt.
Pity they couldn't have done that in 2007!
 

Supermanpolitician

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LP, depends on the spread, if it's uniform I think this would be it, but they could do slightly better or slightly worse depending on a few close constituencies (not many mind). That's not surprising, as they got 10.1% of the vote last time and 20 seats, 28 on 17% would mean just 8 more seats for a 6.9% increase in the vote, which is actually not great (but that's how it comes out when I run the figures - if I was an LP version of One Acre capitalist I'd be claiming 40 seats on this!)

GP, again, depends on the split of the increase, and certainly there'd be a few close ones, but I'm assuming that they'll do well on transfers of a few 2nd FF candidates who will be eliminated before them. But it's an impressive poll either way for a govt party - up from 4.7% in the last GE so this is where I'd call it.

Of course, long way to go before any of this is tested - there could be another poll next week contradicting this one!

Interesting assessment. I think the GP will are in huge danger as two seats will be under extreme pressure, Gormley and Cuffe. I don't think there will be huge transfers between FF and the GP - I could be wrong but I think most GP still see FF as the anti-Christ.

One Acre is on another planet so hard to take his figures seriously. SF will probably hold their 5 seats but no real hope of a gain - maybe MLMD in Dublin Central when Liar reatires but Donohoe has that by election and Fitzpatrick will probably get middle class trasnfers from Donohoe in the GE (assuming he gets elected first though).
 
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No I'm not. 55 seats is about the max that a big party can get if below 28%. FF are somehow counting on FG not to maintain but for a year now FG have been the only show in town when it comes to leading the next government.
FG are stuck in the low 60s seat range-20 short of a majority. Where are you going to get those 20 seats. Labour? The electorate has had a look at Labour and said "don't think so?" In the heat of an election campaign, the neccessity of Labour support is going to be a millstone. The electorate has had 80 years to respect Labour and never gone for them, other than when FG went into meltdown. If FG were to emphatically rule out Labour support they might benefit. They would still be short though.

In contrast, we can govern without Labour but with a combination of Greens and ading as neccessary the Gene pool and SF. If we absolutely had to, we could always throw Gilmore a few baubles to keep him happy. I don't tnink we need to though. Why do you need the support of LAbour when you have the support of their bosses in organised Labour!!!!
 

dotski_w_

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Interesting assessment. I think the GP will are in huge danger as two seats will be under extreme pressure, Gormley and Cuffe. I don't think there will be huge transfers between FF and the GP - I could be wrong but I think most GP still see FF as the anti-Christ.
I think you're half right. GP will transfer in higher numbers this time than before (don't forget many of them didn't vote GP before) but I'd still see them getting less than 35-40% transfers. In the other direction, though, GP are the most likely destination for FF transfers after their ticket is filled. I'd still not see it mad high, but they could get up to 50% of it in some cases, and more where FF particularly hate the opposition candidates.
 

Supermanpolitician

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I can't see that on these figures. Uniform swing in DSE would see them around 18%. FG would be over a quota, but not nearly enough to be challenging for a 2nd seat.

Of course, FG could get 40% in the next election (who knows?), which would make a 2nd seat likely here, but it's these figures we're discussing.
FG already got 18% in last GE. McDowell got 13%. PD voters will go to FG, esp in a middle class area like DSE. A strong candidate on the Ranelagh side of the constituency would push them into the high 20s or on a good day the low 30s. Creighton probably wouldn't object as long as it didn't eat into her base. Only a fraction between McDowell and Gormley last time and that was without any FG transfers to McD.

A very strong possibility of Gormley losing out.
 

GJG

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You are forgetting seat bonus for bigger parties. FF would not be below 55 & could get to 65. In reality, I think we would get low 30% off this poll in an election. As I said about 20% of the green vote is in constituencies where they would not have a chance. ditto with the indos & to a lesser extent with the Shinners. We could be expected to get a lot of this through the counts. It is not going to FG.

We have taken everthing that circumstance & the opposition has thrown at us. As Ali said to Foreman- "is that all you have got?"
Seat bonuses come with stable votes for the larger parties. A far more certain feature is that new (higher or lower) levels of votes tend to result in lower conversion rates for parties. This was observed in 2002 for FG when their vote went down but their seat count collapsed even more. Equally Labour's vote surge in 1992 resulted in more seats, but not as many as their vote increase suggested.

The reason for this is simply that parties hone their machines to make the most of their usual level of vote, with a bit of optimism thrown in. In recent years, FF has excelled at just squeaking the second/third seat out of constituencies. They do this with smart candidate selection, stern discipline from HQ and the buzz that a feeling on the ground that the election is going well gives.

It is simply mad to imagine that these factors would benefit FF in an election where they were starting 10 to15 points lower than in recent years. Candidates would get desperate, try to canvass outside their areas, expend their energies fighting each other for FF core voters rather than trying to persuade the unresponsive swing voters. Discipline would collapse and a huge number of fair-weather activists would just walk away.

Unless FF go into the next election well above the 30 per cent mark, there will be wholesale slaughter. I would predict that the more senior TDs would be more at risk, because the backslapping backbench morons who know nothing but handshakes and medical cards are perceived more as independents than party hacks.

If any FFer disagrees, then list for me the constituencies where FF could suffer losing a quarter of their vote and still not lose a seat. I doubt if you could find 10. That would mean FF losing 30+ seats.
 


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