Scottish Independence: Ireland's Nightmare?

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What effect would a successful campaign for Scottish independence have for Ireland? Would Northern Unionists owe allegiance to London or Edinburgh? Would those of Scots Presbyterian ancestry look to Scotland and those of Anglo-Irish stock to London? What difference would it make to them if Scotland retained the monarchy under a Hapsburg dual monarchy-type system? It was suggested to me by a fairly intelligent observer 15 years ago that Scottish Independence would lead to civil war in Ireland, is that hyperbole or does it have any substance? I wonder if any unionists have any opinions, particularly on the question of allegiance..
 


Riadach

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no. 11754?
 

FutureTaoiseach

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I think if Scotland became independent nothing would change regarding NI.
 

drbob1972

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toxic avenger said:
It was suggested to me by a fairly intelligent observer 15 years ago that Scottish Independence would lead to civil war in Ireland, is that hyperbole or does it have any substance?
i'd be interested in getting the logic behind that theory if you can remember same
 

The Earl of Desmond

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But it would be interesting as there would be a small English speaking, educated, modern EU member state right next door to us and Scottish people ahve huge links to North America so why would a US firm choose Ireland when it can go to Scotland and have all the advantages it would get in Ireland but at a far cheaper cost base as the first thing an independent Scotland would do is cut corporate tax to a level lower than Ireland.

But independence wouldn't happen for about 10 minimum so with a bit of luck we'll have got rid of FF by then and have some chance of getting our competitive edge back. But will FG/L have enough time to sort out 15 years of FF/PD/G incompetence and corruption?
 

angelcountry

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To be honest scotish independent is paramount and it will be welcome in actual fact But i must say at this junction that whether the independent will affect some part in the republic it's a matter for them to address before the calamity hit them because they are pushing harder to look after their own affair said by the scottish first minister ''ALEX SALMON''.

I believed the scotish independent is now coming near after 33% of them want their future in their hand which will become a reality very soon. :D
 

drbob1972

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paramount to whom? a 1/3 of Scots perhaps, but hardly of any great importance for the ROI
 
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drbob1972 said:
toxic avenger said:
It was suggested to me by a fairly intelligent observer 15 years ago that Scottish Independence would lead to civil war in Ireland, is that hyperbole or does it have any substance?
i'd be interested in getting the logic behind that theory if you can remember same
As far as I remember this observer (fairly intelligent and not given to overstatement) believed that it would provoke a unionist or loyalist crisis, that the connection with Scotland was the real link with the Union, and London meant little in comparison. He believed that it would provoke UDI by the Unionists along the same lines as Ian Smith in Rhodesia, and after that a campaign of "ethnic cleansing" to shore up the new state. It struck me as based on too much supposition but still plausible at that time, though that was back in 1992 and much has obviously changed.
 

Insider2007

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toxic avenger said:
drbob1972 said:
[quote="toxic avenger":17c0o45u] It was suggested to me by a fairly intelligent observer 15 years ago that Scottish Independence would lead to civil war in Ireland, is that hyperbole or does it have any substance?
i'd be interested in getting the logic behind that theory if you can remember same
As far as I remember this observer (fairly intelligent and not given to overstatement) believed that it would provoke a unionist or loyalist crisis, that the connection with Scotland was the real link with the Union, and London meant little in comparison. He believed that it would provoke UDI by the Unionists along the same lines as Ian Smith in Rhodesia, and after that a campaign of "ethnic cleansing" to shore up the new state. It struck me as based on too much supposition but still plausible at that time, though that was back in 1992 and much has obviously changed.[/quote:17c0o45u]

Absolute nonsense. NI Unionists owe their allegiance to the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom would continue to exist even if Scotland left it. It continued to exist after Ireland left it.
 

drbob1972

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toxic avenger said:
drbob1972 said:
[quote="toxic avenger":3fo1o1zl] It was suggested to me by a fairly intelligent observer 15 years ago that Scottish Independence would lead to civil war in Ireland, is that hyperbole or does it have any substance?
i'd be interested in getting the logic behind that theory if you can remember same
As far as I remember this observer (fairly intelligent and not given to overstatement) believed that it would provoke a unionist or loyalist crisis, that the connection with Scotland was the real link with the Union, and London meant little in comparison. He believed that it would provoke UDI by the Unionists along the same lines as Ian Smith in Rhodesia, and after that a campaign of "ethnic cleansing" to shore up the new state. It struck me as based on too much supposition but still plausible at that time, though that was back in 1992 and much has obviously changed.[/quote:3fo1o1zl]

hmm perhaps that may have been the feelings of a few extremists back then but i really cannot see that happening now (or realistically even back then) kinda reminds me of Eugène Terre'Blanche and his rambling of the streets being covered in blood in a race war if apartheid were to end in SA
 

joel

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drbob1972 said:
toxic avenger said:
drbob1972 said:
[quote="toxic avenger":1jrs7e77] It was suggested to me by a fairly intelligent observer 15 years ago that Scottish Independence would lead to civil war in Ireland, is that hyperbole or does it have any substance?
i'd be interested in getting the logic behind that theory if you can remember same
As far as I remember this observer (fairly intelligent and not given to overstatement) believed that it would provoke a unionist or loyalist crisis, that the connection with Scotland was the real link with the Union, and London meant little in comparison. He believed that it would provoke UDI by the Unionists along the same lines as Ian Smith in Rhodesia, and after that a campaign of "ethnic cleansing" to shore up the new state. It struck me as based on too much supposition but still plausible at that time, though that was back in 1992 and much has obviously changed.
hmm perhaps that may have been the feelings of a few extremists back then but i really cannot see that happening now (or realistically even back then) kinda reminds me of Eugène Terre'Blanche and his rambling of the streets being covered in blood in a race war if apartheid were to end in SA[/quote:1jrs7e77]


Yes, I think the guy is a fascist/racist troll.
 

Thac0man

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On the face of it I don't think Scottish independance would cause much trouble in Ireland. However it does have an 'Irish' dimension in Scotland with the divisions of tradition that have been prominant in Ireland mirrored closely in Scotland. If that becomes an issue post independance it could have ramafications here.

It would cause a crises in identity for many 'Ulster Scots' who link that (developing) identity with the Union. I have never understood fully the complex and often contradictory claims of identity that groups of Loyalists/Unionists have promoted (Ulster Scots being the latest). But I have no doubt that that contradiction and confusion would be deepened should Scotland gain independance.
 
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The man was not at all right-wing or supportive of such an outcome, seemed more fearful of it, but I agree that it was a bit too 'apocalyptic' in tone, though at the time I was intrigued as to whether there was a possibility that it was a serious proposition. It led to my wondering would unionist allegiance stay with London or move to Edinburgh. I certainly do not agree that it would be the same as when we left the Union in 1922 though, we were not essential to the survival of the Union in Great Britain. Should Scotland declare independence there is only a rump Union of questionable viability. The Unionists of Northern Ireland would be faced with a Union between Northen Ireland and England/Wales though their kinship ties are with Scotland and there is no affinity in England and Wales with the Northern Irish Unionists. So would they stay with London or readjust?
 

Insider2007

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Thac0man said:
On the face of it I don't think Scottish independance would cause much trouble in Ireland. However it does have an 'Irish' dimension in Scotland with the divisions of tradition that have been prominant in Ireland mirrored closely in Scotland. If that becomes an issue post independance it could have ramafications here.

It would cause a crises in identity for many 'Ulster Scots' who link that (developing) identity with the Union. I have never understood fully the complex and often contradictory claims of identity that groups of Loyalists/Unionists have promoted (Ulster Scots being the latest). But I have no doubt that that contradiction and confusion would be deepened should Scotland gain independance.
Not really. Just as people can be Irish in a Northern Ireland that is not part of the Irish state, so people in Northern Ireland can have cultural affinities with a Scotland that is a separate state. The whole point of the Belfast Agreement is to allow people to share identities separate from statehood.
 
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Insider sums it up greatly,

There are many people from Northern Ireland both Protestants & Catholics coming to Scotland to study and a huge amount are staying.

The SNP had an opinon poll relased at the weekend and their opinon poll rating has gone up 15% after being in power - They are planning on producing a white paper on independence in the next few days but it'll not get through due to the numbers of unionist politicians in Holyrood.

I think Northern Ireland would stay within the England/Wales Kingdom (whatever that would be called) Scotland is seeking Independence and myself and many many others in the SNP as a Republican-SNP voter they intend to stick a vote on whenever we should be a republic or a monarchy.

Interesting times,
 

TradCat

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Union with Scotland would not be an option for the unionists (who would want them?) so their choice would be England or Ireland.
 

drbob1972

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TradCat said:
Union with Scotland would not be an option for the unionists (who would want them?) so their choice would be England or Ireland.
or possibly to go it alone that would sit a lot easier with many of them over a UI i'd suspect
 

cain1798

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toxic avenger said:
It was suggested to me by a fairly intelligent observer 15 years ago that Scottish Independence would lead to civil war in Ireland, is that hyperbole or does it have any substance?
I would argue that by holding such a position the individual inquestion undermines your description of 'fairly intelligent'.
 

nawbut

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all

Give each wee tribal faction its own county council, if thats what makes them happy.

We are all Europeans, now.
 
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Would be very keen to hear the opinion of anyone from a Unionist background about where they would look to in Britain, would they be comfortable with Scotland being a foreign country? Would they advocate continuing union with London or would they decide that the Union meant nothing without their political connection to their ancestral kin in Scotland? Or would UDI be an option?
 


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