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Screw the Greeks,Default First


mryoungdan

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Former BOE Official Buiter Says Greece May Be First EU Default - Bloomberg.com


It is an absolute certainty that Ireland will default.

I have been pilleried before for saying such a thing by the usual crew of deniers. If a country is going to default it should make the most of it.
It looks as if the Greeks are going to pull a fast one and default ahead of the Paddies. They can never be first in anything. It is like FG, they have no self confidence. There must be something in the water. Come to think of it there is, flouride. Don't drink the water, it will make you stupid.

The Greek finance minister says there is "ABSOLUTELY" no chance of a default. That is Greek for "he has called his broker to sell and short every Greek bond known to exist"

An Irish default of course will be the best thing that ever happened to the Irish people but Magic Arse and Enda the Eejit and there record spinners here will say the opposite.

Happy Christmas and never let it be said I never have good news
 

gombeennation

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Oct 6, 2009
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hi youngdan - how long before you think ireland will default.
isnt short selling irish stocks not allowed these days?
if so how do i make money out of ireland defaulting.
dont listen to the deniers - you were right all along.
 

mryoungdan

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hi youngdan - how long before you think ireland will default.
isnt short selling irish stocks not allowed these days?
if so how do i make money out of ireland defaulting.
dont listen to the deniers - you were right all along.
I thought it would have defaulted by now but I had not known they had a 20 billion cash cushion. It is interesting what they have done. They have over the past year set up a market in short term bills which there are now about 12 billion outstanding. They are paying about 1% on this money. It has allowed them to keep the cash cushion though and they are happy to pay the 1% juice. I presume this cash is in case there is a run on the banks and it is needed immediately.

This bill market could be milked up to a fairly big figure outstanding while they roll them over and borrow more.

Don't worry about making money. Do worry about holding on to any few bob you have
 

ballot stuffer

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I look forward to bumping this thread when you are inevitably wrong again. :)

Although you have made so many off the wall predictions you are bound to get one right sometime.
 

Middleaged

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I thought it would have defaulted by now but I had not known they had a 20 billion cash cushion. It is interesting what they have done. They have over the past year set up a market in short term bills which there are now about 12 billion outstanding. They are paying about 1% on this money. It has allowed them to keep the cash cushion though and they are happy to pay the 1% juice. I presume this cash is in case there is a run on the banks and it is needed immediately.

This bill market could be milked up to a fairly big figure outstanding while they roll them over and borrow more.

Don't worry about making money. Do worry about holding on to any few bob you have
Now now Dan you said categorically when pushed by me and others that we would default by the end of this year..... you are again clearly wrong.... you also said categorically that you researched this extensively, now you say you knew nothing of the €20bn cash cushion,(tut tut) eventhough all this information is freely available on numerous sites including the NTMA... looks like your analysis if flawed.

Now you have decided to resurrect the call okay, no messin "**** on the Block" time again... as you didn't answer the other posters question, I'll askit

When are we going to default?.... you know that I'll not accept soon, withing months.... You are the sage of Boston you tell us all give us the month.....
 

mryoungdan

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Sure sure ballot. Gold is at 400 bucks, the iseq is at 8000, BS and Lehmans are not bankrupt. The 2 stocks I recommended on Dec 31st are not up 350%.

Bottom line is I have made a fortune and it is all in the iseq thread.
 

mryoungdan

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Yes Ireland wll make it to the end of the year because I had not taken the 20 billion into account.

But I dont mind as I had an excellent year
 

Middleaged

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I thought it would have defaulted by now but I had not known they had a 20 billion cash cushion. It is interesting what they have done. They have over the past year set up a market in short term bills which there are now about 12 billion outstanding. They are paying about 1% on this money. It has allowed them to keep the cash cushion though and they are happy to pay the 1% juice. I presume this cash is in case there is a run on the banks and it is needed immediately.

This bill market could be milked up to a fairly big figure outstanding while they roll them over and borrow more.

Don't worry about making money. Do worry about holding on to any few bob you have
Another thing we discussed the €12bn last May, so you knew about it then, and now you say you didn't.... c'omn Dan were not all gullible...
 

mryoungdan

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Another thing we discussed the €12bn last May, so you knew about it then, and now you say you didn't.... c'omn Dan were not all gullible...
You pull up the post and then we will not need to be gullable now will we.
 

ballot stuffer

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Sure sure ballot. Gold is at 400 bucks, the iseq is at 8000, BS and Lehmans are not bankrupt. The 2 stocks I recommended on Dec 31st are not up 350%.

Bottom line is I have made a fortune and it is all in the iseq thread.
And more power to you, don't let the smelly socialists get their hands on it.

The government seems determined to cut and tax their way out of this, the only way I can see default is if there is a major double dip shock to the bond markets or if Labour gets an overall majority :eek:.
 

gombeennation

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I thought it would have defaulted by now but I had not known they had a 20 billion cash cushion. It is interesting what they have done. They have over the past year set up a market in short term bills which there are now about 12 billion outstanding. They are paying about 1% on this money. It has allowed them to keep the cash cushion though and they are happy to pay the 1% juice. I presume this cash is in case there is a run on the banks and it is needed immediately.

This bill market could be milked up to a fairly big figure outstanding while they roll them over and borrow more.

Don't worry about making money. Do worry about holding on to any few bob you have
anyone who doubts dan , just have a look at the iseq thread - read it from the start ( its long but well worth it - "thats what she said" ).

can you in laymans terms tell me where this 20billion came from.
i am convinced that FF are doing the minimum take from everyone in order to keep them as popular as possible - the country can rot.
whoever has to do the real clean up will be blamed by paddy public.
so if i am correct - how bad shape will ireland be in 2 years or so.
as for holding on to the few bob - after reading your posts i moved my money out of the country a long long time ago.
i am still not convinced there wont be a run on the banks.
 

Middleaged

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Yes Ireland wll make it to the end of the year because I had not taken the 20 billion into account.

But I dont mind as I had an excellent year
Stay on topic this isn't about your personal financial prowess, we discussed the issuance of T-bills last Jan and Feb, I called them working capital requirement, I remember citing the opening cash balance of €22bn I think it was, you advocated that we use that money, rather than issue T-Bills, therefore you knew about that money....

Again now you are saying you never knew..... C'omn Dan...
 

mryoungdan

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Stay on topic this isn't about your personal financial prowess, we discussed the issuance of T-bills last Jan and Feb, I called them working capital requirement, I remember citing the opening cash balance of €22bn I think it was, you advocated that we use that money, rather than issue T-Bills, therefore you knew about that money....

Again now you are saying you never knew..... C'omn Dan...

Now who is trying to distort. My reply to Gombeenman states clearly that initially I did not know about the cash cushion. I do not recall a discussion in Jan, it was not that long ago.

So pull up this Jan discussion so that we can see it
 

Middleaged

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[quote:]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Middleaged
In post 201 you say "a matter of week's", above the first sentence mention's year's then retreat's to month's.

What, is it "week's, month's or years", **** on the block.

Remember €12bn "raised" and the last auction were T-bill's.

Come on Dan.... give us a fact

I missed this but see it now. I was **** on the block when I was younger but am a settled man now but thanks for the compliment all the same.

This is how markets work.

I would be betting against on the Irish bond. I would be betting on the direction, size and timing of the move. This type of bet is called an option contract. There would be different contracts on the duration and the size of the decline with different costs. I would be betting on a big decline and if I was right the payoff would be huge. The larger the decline I predicted the bigger the payoff if I was right.

So in this case I would pick a figure say 50% lower than it is now.

Then I would pick the time. The shorter the time the greater the odds. I might think it would happen in 4 months but to have a better chance I might spend a bit extra and buy a 6 month contract.

So in this instance I would buy a contract for 9 months and a price fall of 50% and hope for the best(for me). If I wasright I might make 50 times my money if not much more.

You would be on the other side of the trade. You would sell the contract in the expectation that it would not happen and you would pocket the money for free.


There may not be an options market on Irish debt so in that case one would just sell it short.


So when I say not years it means less than a year. In fact before year end or 28 weeks.


If you think otherwise then buy Irish bonds and make some money for yourself [/quote]

There you go, its post 240 on the David Mac Williams said something, the above was posted on the 11th of May....

I'm unable to link...(if anyone can I'd appeciate it)
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Aug 23, 2009
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They fact it is the 21st century and we are having a discussion on the possibility of Ireland defaulting is in itself frightening. Ireland has 700 Million Euro in Official External Reserves and probably about 10 Billion in the Pension Fund.

The Banks will require at least another 15 Billion outside of NAMA. Our budget deficit next year will probably be near 30 Billion Euro again. Our 10 year bond yield went back over 5% yesterday. Its between us and Spain as the next most likely to default after Greece.
 

mryoungdan

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anyone who doubts dan , just have a look at the iseq thread - read it from the start ( its long but well worth it - "thats what she said" ).

can you in laymans terms tell me where this 20billion came from.
i am convinced that FF are doing the minimum take from everyone in order to keep them as popular as possible - the country can rot.
whoever has to do the real clean up will be blamed by paddy public.
so if i am correct - how bad shape will ireland be in 2 years or so.
as for holding on to the few bob - after reading your posts i moved my money out of the country a long long time ago.
i am still not convinced there wont be a run on the banks.
The 20 billion came from the same place in a sence that the money that flowed into the Treasury during Bill Clintons time. The boom generated a huge supply of tax revenue. The regular taxes but also from capital gains and stamp. It did not take a genius to realise that this flood of cash was skim off the bubble.

The government however thought it was normal.

In real terms that cash is part of the 60 billion hole now on the banks balance sheets
 

cactusflower

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Oct 1, 2008
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If that was the only trouble we had I would be laughing.

You will probably all remember this article by Lucey and Gudiev last February.

Problems in real economy dwarf those of bank sector - The Irish Times - Tue, Feb 03, 2009

On any reasonable metric, Irish households and indigenous companies are the most indebted in the entire EU. Put more starkly, when it comes to overall solvency prospects for Irish consumers and small and medium enterprises, we are ranking dead last across Europe.

Using IMF data and factoring in our liabilities arising from foreign direct investment, Ireland’s total personal and corporate indebtedness, net of borrowings by international and domestic financial institutions based here and public sector debt, stood at €790.8 billion (more than five times our GNP) at the end of 2008.

A further worry is the structure of this borrowing. Again from IMF data , as of June 2008, Irish borrowers had outstanding €69 billion in domestic and €194 billion of international debt securities with a remaining maturity of 12 months or less, implying that the Irish corporate and personal economy faced a total debt payment bill of some €263 billion in July 2008-July 2009 alone. Of this €65 billion is maturing corporate debt. Adding in interest payments, this implies that the Irish corporate and personal sector faces finding close to €300 billion in total redemptions over that period. That is a real credit crunch. Such a burden can only lead to increased bankruptcies, and we already see this feeding through.
I would like to see a breakdown of what this debt is and how it has been handled over the last six months.

The indebtedness per capita in Ireland they said is 900 times higher than in the US. Ireland as a whole owes more than Japan, one of the worlds biggest economies, and one sixth of the US.

About half of this was generated between 2005 and 2007. How can this be possible ?
 

mryoungdan

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I say these words.

"Are you sure of yourself in your belief that Ireland will not default in say 3 years.

Yes I am comfortable in my opinion on this and I am not talking years I am talking months."

I am replying to another poster where he asks whether default will occur within 3 years.


You jump in with these words.

"In post 201 you say "a matter of week's", above the first sentence mention's year's then retreat's to month's.

What, is it "week's, month's or years", **** on the block.

Remember €12bn "raised" and the last auction were T-bill's.

Come on Dan.... give us a fact"








Now you say the 12 billion was the cushion.

In May you said the 12 billion was the last T bill auction

Neither statement is correct.

So read the thread and instead of relying on your memory give us the facts

http://www.politics.ie/1641136-post212.html
 
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