Sean Crowe's chances in the GE?

DuineEile

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Has anyone any idea of Sean Crowe's chances in the GE? He always struck me as a decent bloke, but I have no idea about the likely breakdown of votes in his constituency. I see from his website that he is still a councillor.

I am wondering if he is running this time, and if the SF surge (if it materialises as votes in the GE) would be enough to bring him in?

D
 
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R

RepublicanSocialist1798

Has anyone any idea of Sean Crowe's chances in the GE? He always struck me as a decent bloke, but I have no idea about the likely breakdown of votes in his constituency. I see from his website that he is still a councillor.

I am wondering if he is running this time, and if the SF surge (if it materialises as votes in the GE) would be enough to bring him in?

D
Their vote held up during the last locals in Tallaght and given the collapse of FF in the polls I'd say he should make it.
 

NFD100

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I'm pretty sure he will make it, if I'm not wrong he topped the poll there in 2002. Unlucky to lose out last time round. Any increase in the SF vote and he's through......
 

Northtipp

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A good man and a good community worker who was unlucky last time out. He deserves his seat
 

DuineEile

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A good man and a good community worker who was unlucky last time out. He deserves his seat
Thanks Northtipp. BTW, I was a bit harsh on you on another thread re: Willie O'Dea. I was reading from front to back, so posted a reply to one of yours before I saw that you expained yourself a little bit more in a later thread.

Apologies for that.


D
 

Northtipp

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Thanks Northtipp. BTW, I was a bit harsh on you on another thread re: Willie O'Dea. I was reading from front to back, so posted a reply to one of yours before I saw that you expained yourself a little bit more in a later thread.

Apologies for that.


D
no probs.lol
 

drjimryan2

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not that simple......

its dublin south west...not just tallaght.... he lost his seat last time by sticking to tallaght alone..........and not realising that with jobs came aspirations.......

labour will take two, fg one and its between crowe and oconnor (if indeed he runs).......
or will murphy rise from the ashes?
 

Keith-M

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One of the FF seats goes, whether it goes to Labour or SF is open to debate. Based on the national polls and the locals, it will be Labour. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that both FFers could go.
 
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rockofcashel

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Why do people keep making a case for Labour to be almost assured of two seats here. Pat Rabbitte, as leader of the Labour Party last time out, had a tiny bit less than 1 quota, and people now expect Labours vote to double and split relatively evenly ?

I just don't see it.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Why do people keep making a case for Labour to be almost assured of two seats here. Pat Rabbitte, as leader of the Labour Party last time out, had a tiny bit less than 1 quota, and people now expect Labours vote to double and split relatively evenly ?

I just don't see it.
To be fair, Rock, they were up in the mid-30s in the locals, so they're not far away. Maloney's not much of a candidate, though. As for Crowe, SF were up at around 15-16% in the locals, so they'd be in the game, but by no means certain.
 

sport02

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If I recall correctly when he won his seat, he actually topped the poll, but lost it the following time around, surely if he runs now with FF in freefall, his chances are pretty good.
 

Murph

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I heard a report before the byelection and surge that he was doing very well with great soundings on the ground!
 

gijoe

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Why do people keep making a case for Labour to be almost assured of two seats here. Pat Rabbitte, as leader of the Labour Party last time out, had a tiny bit less than 1 quota, and people now expect Labours vote to double and split relatively evenly ?

I just don't see it.
The recent polls indicate that Labour are polling in the region of 40% in Dublin - that will give them 2 seats in nearly all Dublin constituencies. Even if 40% proves to be an overestimate and they poll say 30% in Dublin they would still be well odds on for 2 seats in DSW.
 

gijoe

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If I recall correctly when he won his seat, he actually topped the poll, but lost it the following time around, surely if he runs now with FF in freefall, his chances are pretty good.
Actually DSW has a curious record of the poll topper losing the seat next time out.....Conor Lenihan topped the poll in 07........

I know this because it is one of the images on TV that I remember from 07 when both Pat Rabbitte and Conor Lenihan were being interviewed. Pat mentioned this fact and you could see Conor's face just drop - it was classic TV.
 

rockofcashel

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The recent polls indicate that Labour are polling in the region of 40% in Dublin - that will give them 2 seats in nearly all Dublin constituencies. Even if 40% proves to be an overestimate and they poll say 30% in Dublin they would still be well odds on for 2 seats in DSW.

It really doesn't work like that, as anyone who knows how proportional representation knows.

40% is two quotas, but if it splits 30/10, then one candidate has a surplus of 10% and surpluses break up an awful lot in many cases.

30% with a 20/10 split, would mean no surplus at all for a 2nd candidate, as the 1st candidates bundles simply close down as soon as they reach the quota.

Labour would need to get an even split at 30% i.e. 15 each to really put both in the game.

Their problem is likely to be that Rabbitte will fire too far ahead of the second candidate to be a huge help to them
 

gijoe

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It really doesn't work like that, as anyone who knows how proportional representation knows.

40% is two quotas, but if it splits 30/10, then one candidate has a surplus of 10% and surpluses break up an awful lot in many cases.

30% with a 20/10 split, would mean no surplus at all for a 2nd candidate, as the 1st candidates bundles simply close down as soon as they reach the quota.

Labour would need to get an even split at 30% i.e. 15 each to really put both in the game.

Their problem is likely to be that Rabbitte will fire too far ahead of the second candidate to be a huge help to them
Your are forgetting the transfers. As a general rule if the No.1's are going with you then the transfers will as well. Labour will hoover up transfers from the minor parties and independents as well.
 

rockofcashel

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Your are forgetting the transfers. As a general rule if the No.1's are going with you then the transfers will as well. Labour will hoover up transfers from the minor parties and independents as well.
But how many will there be to be honest. Apart from the Socialist guy, it's likely that FG will have a safe quota, Lab will have a safe quota, and FF will have at probably worst 50%/75% of a quota between them. That's probably around 60/65% of the votes eaten up already. If Crowe can get around 75% of a quota.. which would be halfway between his 2002/2007 figure, then there'll only be around 15% of the vote left between all the candidates and the small surpluses to fight over. The 2nd Labour candidate would need to pick up close to 100% of this vote, including all transfers and surpluses, to get near winning the seat.

I won't say it's impossible.. but unless Rabbitte can be persuaded to share his vote evenly, it's unlikely
 

Cai

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But how many will there be to be honest. Apart from the Socialist guy, it's likely that FG will have a safe quota, Lab will have a safe quota, and FF will have at probably worst 50%/75% of a quota between them. That's probably around 60/65% of the votes eaten up already. If Crowe can get around 75% of a quota.. which would be halfway between his 2002/2007 figure, then there'll only be around 15% of the vote left between all the candidates and the small surpluses to fight over. The 2nd Labour candidate would need to pick up close to 100% of this vote, including all transfers and surpluses, to get near winning the seat.

I won't say it's impossible.. but unless Rabbitte can be persuaded to share his vote evenly, it's unlikely
If the latest RedC poll is correct, & if DSW isn't a special case, then he won't need transfers will he?
 

inchicore_republican

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Sean lost out last time because a good few members in Tallaght left before the election for different reasons and they were good community people who could get people out to vote for Sean.
 


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