Seats in the next Dail : Where the money is going

Keith-M

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CORRECTED AND UPDATED WITH SP and PBP seats.

Irish Government Betting Odds - Paddy Power

Just looking at the odds being offered for seat ranges for each party at he next election; the money would suggest that this is how the next Dail would look;

FF : 52 (-24 on 2007)
FG : 54 (+3)
LP : 48 (+28)
GP : 1 (-5) - corrected
SF : 8 (+4)
SP : 2 (+2)
PBP:1 (+1)

Now you can see thois totals to 166, because the odds include the bookie's margin (they'll never offer even money to two horses in a two horse race). We can assume that there will be independents and others in the next Dail, so each party needs to be pegged back a little.
 
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Keith-M

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Where exactly are you taking those seats off the PP site?
Each party has a range of seats and corresponding odds, I then have a spreadsheet that turns the odds into a probability factor and you weight off the extremes at both ends proportionally to to the probability and you get a mean point for the seats by party.
 

tiny tim

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Irish Government Betting Odds - Paddy Power

Just looking at the odds being offered for seat ranges for each party at he next election; the money would suggest that this is how the next Dail would look;

FF : 52 (-24 on 2007)
FG : 54 (+3)
LP : 48 (+28)
GP : 4 (-2)
SF : 8 (+4)

Now you can see thois totals to 166, because the odds include the bookie's margin (they'll never offer even money to two horses in a two horse race). We can assume that there will be <>5 independents and others in the next Dail, so each party needs to be pegged back by a seat.

Personally I cannot see the Greens holding four, but the others seem pretty accurate to me.
Doesn't read right to me. Can you give it to us Constituency by Constituency? The Greens can only get 1 seat if any
 

Cael

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I predict that the winner will be - the landed oligarchy and their bankers.
 

Iarmhi Gael

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Each party has a range of seats and corresponding odds, I then have a spreadsheet that turns the odds into a probability factor and you weight off the extremes at both ends proportionally to to the probability and you get a mean point for the seats by party.



And how do you equate your findings to where the money is going?
 

Keith-M

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And how do you equate your findings to where the money is going?

The bookmakers set their odds based on where the money is going. For example, if there was a sudden rush of money to Labour getting more than 60 seats, the odds would drop, the probability would increase and my spreadsheet would start to project more seats for Labour.
 

Keith-M

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Doesn't read right to me. Can you give it to us Constituency by Constituency? The Greens can only get 1 seat if any

There is no constituency betting as of yet, this is just overall seat ranges by party. They don't offer odds for Independent/Others, so they also have to be factorred in, the the seats for each part cut.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Indeed, it was my spreadsheet that suggested a FF/PD/GP coalition as a likely option in the build up to the last election and I got vilified for even suggesting it!
You also suggested FG would only gain two seats - they gained TWENTY.
 

Iarmhi Gael

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The bookmakers set their odds based on where the money is going. For example, if there was a sudden rush of money to Labour getting more than 60 seats, the odds would drop, the probability would increase and my spreadsheet would start to project more seats for Labour.

Firstly the Bookmakers do not set their odds on where the money is going. They are compiling a market and as such with such a small liquidity base - rely on poll's, history and analysis of the market and news.

Secondly explain why you would remove the 3-1 for FF for under 40 seats as you said you did? I'm astounded you cast aside the clear favorite in this market

Thirdly - Which of these odds for most seats at end of next election reflects value-

FG 8/11
Lab 6/4
FF 6/1
 
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Rocket Man

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According to this FG are 10/3 to get less than 40 seats.
I must say I find that a bit bizarre.
I really can't see them losing 10 seats.
4/1 for 56 to 60 looks like a good bet to me.
 

jacko

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The bookmakers set their odds based on where the money is going. For example, if there was a sudden rush of money to Labour getting more than 60 seats, the odds would drop, the probability would increase and my spreadsheet would start to project more seats for Labour.
The odds on Labour at 60+ is only 6/4 !
 

Keith-M

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Firstly the Bookmakers do not set their odds on where the money is going. They are compiling a market and as such with such a small liquidity base - rely on poll's, history and analysis of the market and news.
That only applies when they are setting the initial odds. PP have been offering seats and the next election and one has to assume that there have been several bets made. The fact is that the odds are changing and not always proportinally to the polls.

Secondly explain why you would remove the 3-1 for FF for under 40 seats as you said you did? I'm astounded you case aside the clear favorite in this market.
I don't remove it, I factor it in a one end of the scale with a weighting corresponding to the odds. In fact it has such a heavy weighting (because the odds are so low) that it offsets almost the entire top four seat ranges for FF.

Thirdly - Which of these odds for most seats at end of next election reflects value-

FG 8/11
Lab 6/4
FF 6/1
FF, without question. I don't know of anyone who thinks Labour will get most seats. 6/1 for FF to get most seats, is a VERY good bet, even with where they are in the polls. I still think FG will take more seats, but 6/1 in what is essentially a two horse race, is great value for money.
 

Craiced

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Irish Government Betting Odds - Paddy Power

Just looking at the odds being offered for seat ranges for each party at he next election; the money would suggest that this is how the next Dail would look;

FF : 52 (-24 on 2007)
FG : 54 (+3)
LP : 48 (+28)
GP : 4 (-2)
SF : 8 (+4)

Now you can see thois totals to 166, because the odds include the bookie's margin (they'll never offer even money to two horses in a two horse race). We can assume that there will be <>5 independents and others in the next Dail, so each party needs to be pegged back by a seat.
I don't understand the point you are trying to make here. The percentage book(bookmakers margin) is a correlation of the odds offered and the number of possible outcomes.

You are hardly trying to suggest the bookies margin is only 1 /167 ??

For instance, in the Labour Seats Market, there are 10 possible outcomes and odds offered by Paddy Power of 25/1 to 6/4. That gives a percentage book of 150% and why punters should avoid betting with PP at all costs!
 

Keith-M

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The odds on Labour at 60+ is only 6/4 !
Indeed, that's the option has clearly seen most betting as it's the one with the greatest cut in the ods since I last checked.

That 6/4 is enough to offset the bottom 5 ranges for Labour.

I'm wondering if this (plus the ridiculously low odds on Labour getting most seats), is something of havy tactical bet by someone or perhaps a group.
 
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