Second Election 2020

dinnyMEP

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apathy
So if all the talk of coalitions come to nothing and we face a second election. What lessons have each of the parties learnt and what changes would they make for second election.

A lot will be decided on the mood of the nation as who caused the second election.

FF

Fianna Fail will have to cull tickets but I suspect changes will be made and I could see them attacking some of the rural SF TD's by placing a close by Councillor on the ticket to try to stifle the SF first preference votes on a geographical basis . Also I suspect a few high profile parachute candidates from the world of sport and entertainment to be added or high profile independent Councillors being approached to beef up ticket. Also I feel a few of Sinn Fein's clothes will be stolen and would expect a more robust pragmatic approach to housing and health in a new manifesto. FF problem will be it will still be lead by Micheal Martin in any quick rerun.

FG

Similar to FF they will look at the tickets and see where they can stem the tide. They may go for a more explicit right wing tax cutting manifesto and aggressively target middle class Dublin voters. Look for them to target a second seat in DBS, DL and Fingal at the expense of FF and Labour. They will run on a red scare,stop SF election. They will seek to move the economy and Brexit centre stage again. It failed this time but may be more effective now people can see SF and left could possibly form a government after 2nd election.

SF

They are riding high. This time last year people expected them to lose seats instead of pick them up. In 3 months how do the electoral feel ? They will run additional candidates to hoover up the SPBP seats and other soft left seats. Now that SF have won people will see its not a wasted vote so might pick up a few extra seats but they will be cautious of not over extending itself. Expect their manifesto to be much more thoroughly looked through and any nutty ideas pointed out as they could be leading the next government. Election will suit them as Mary Lou will be treated as potential next Taoiseach and they will get more coverage due to their increased size. A lot more questions will be asked about their coalition partners and red lines. SF have played the long game well and always talked of building incrementally. I would expect a lot more focus on its policies than the IRA the next time but the Sindo will happily throw shite all day long but it doesn't stick anymore although expect lots of use of the Dessie Ellis/ David Cullinane victory celebrations in coverage.

Labour

Labour is doomed and it might lose even more seats in the next election. Ged Nash will have a FF target on his back, Aodhan will have a second SFer for company, None of their seats seem safe bar Howlin and FF will surely run a wexford town candidate to join Browne and Byrne. Duncan Smith will have Dean Mulligan breathing down his neck in Fingal. A party that does not want a second election desperately.

Green Party

A good result to get 12 seats. I expect a FG attack in Dublin on its middle class supporters. They should hold around the same maybe replace Healy in DBN and get a seat. Their vote is a fickle one.

Soc Dems

A good election and picking up strong transfers along the line helped by strong SF surplus votes. Seemed a better option for left wing transfers than Labour. They won a lot of last seats can their luck hold again ?

SPBP

They will claim they don't need to be in the Dáil to carry on the struggle but if they are not in the Dáil then you wont see much of them on TV in the coming years. A lot of them owe their seats to strong SF transfers which might not be available with a second SF candidate looking at Dublin South Central or Cork North Central in particular. Some of them have a visceral hatred of SF as not left enough but how do they temper that to keep getting SF transfers?

Independents

Its a mixed bag established ones should hold on again but newer ones such as Shanahan in Waterford, O'Donoghue in Limerick County, Berry in Kildare South will have large targets on their backs.


A second election would be fascinating and no two elections ever run the same. Who would of said in January that the pension issue would be huge and no one cared anything about Brexit !
 


Itsalaugh

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3,709
It looking like SF will be kept outta power.
FG is coming under major pressure to facilitate another confidence/supply arrangement as in previous Dáil.
The Greens will probably go into coalition with FF.
Another election is 3 years away.
McDowell was calling for a merger of FFG on Sunday. That will happen in 3 years when SF have 60seats.
 

bactrian

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Joined
May 11, 2004
Messages
1,293
Sinn Fein won the popular vote. If they had run enough candidates they could have won 50-60 seats*.

There was a policy among many voters of "Transfer Left" which brought in many of the PBP, Social Democrats, Greens, etc. If there was an election tomorrow or in 3 months time and SF ran sufficient candidates ,SF would get those seats , FF and FG would (combined ) retain their number of seats(margin of error +/- 2 Seats). The real losers would be the "Other" Left parties.

SF will at some point have to go into coalition with one of the centrist parties (Probably FF) !





* Anyone who has read my previous posts on SF knows that I despise them and consider them cowards and "Hurlers on the Ditch" by preference.
 

locke

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May 2, 2007
Messages
3,372
Labour

Labour is doomed and it might lose even more seats in the next election. Ged Nash will have a FF target on his back, Aodhan will have a second SFer for company, None of their seats seem safe bar Howlin and FF will surely run a wexford town candidate to join Browne and Byrne. Duncan Smith will have Dean Mulligan breathing down his neck in Fingal. A party that does not want a second election desperately.
Agree that they don't want an election in the near future, but there are reasons for optimism for them if the next Government lasts 4-5 years.

While they lost seats, their line up is younger and with the exception of Howlin, the dinosaurs are gone.

It is likely that one of their rivals for centre-left vote (Greens, Soc Dems) will end up in Government with the loss of support that usually entails.

They should be able to cut deals that will gather them 3-4 senators and with Nash and ó Ríordáin elected, there will be possible slots for a few candidates who could target Dáil seats.

Their difficulties are an all-male line-up and a lack of clear targets. Only really Mark Wall and Kevin Humphreys came anywhere close to a seat and there must be a question as to whether Humphreys would run again.
 

Cilldara_2000

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Messages
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I voted Sinn Féin on the basis that they would likely wind up as a junior coalition partner to FF or FG, and neither FF or FG made a decent stab at sorting out the two major domestic issues in the outgoing coalition. In prior general elections I have voted no 1 for FF or Labour usually, but also FG and Catherine Murphy - I'm an out and out floating voter. My vote in a second election is not at all guaranteed to go SF again despite the fact that I traditionally lean left and republican. Two major factors will influence my vote in another election. 1) I will lean towards whichever parties make the best genuine effort to form a government, and 2) if SF don't water down their voodoo economics manifesto, I'm unlikely to consider them for a top three preference. I mean their manifesto was alright for a party which expected to hit no more than 15% of the vote but it's irresponsible for a mainstream party representing a quarter of the electorate.

I expect others of the not-a-scrounger but want people to be able afford their own homes category who "lent" SF their vote for this election may also carefully consider whether they vote SF again. So I don't think anyone can take it as a given that SF will automatically keep their current share of the vote and thus gain seats.
 

lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
Prediction for Election held later this year: S.F 44 F.F 44 F.G 33 Greens 10 Soc Dem 5 Lab 4 PBP 4 Ind 16
 

locke

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Prediction for Election held later this year: S.F 44 F.F 44 F.G 33 Greens 10 Soc Dem 5 Lab 4 PBP 4 Ind 16
I think it's a bit early to say. If a party takes the blame for there being a second election, then they could well suffer a bit.

Obviously Sinn Féin being able to nominate more candidates would benefit from getting the numbers right.

Fine Gael wouldn't actually be especially vulnerable to this. In most constituencies, they comfortably had one seat. And the only constituencies where they got two were ones that SF didn't get enough votes to run two candidates.

By my reckoning, the seats that Sinn Féin would have picked up with the right candidate balance were

Grn 3
FF 2
FG 1
Sol-PBP 1
SD 1
Ind 2

There was also one seat each for the Greens, FF, Labour and and Independent that are too close to call.
 

dinnyMEP

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I was thinking of some Fianna Fáil ticket changes and I would impose them from HQ and **** the grassroots ! ( My younger self is spinning at the idea and frothing at the mouth !!)

Roscommon East Galway - in Pascal Fitzmaurice and John Keogh out Murphy /Leyden
Sligo Leitrim - in Paul Taylor and beg Sinead Guckian to run out Scanlon/Ellis
Galway East - in Colm Keaveney Out Donogh Killilea
Wateford - in Adam Wyse ( Beg Ken McGrath ) out Eddie Mulligan
Wexford - in Gary Laffan - Out Michael Sheehan/Lisa McDonald
Westmeath - Add Aeongus O'Rourke to see if he can get Athlone seat
Rathdown - in Olivia Buckley - Out Shay Brennan
Louth in Emma Coffey - Out James Byrne
Dublin Central - Ask Nial Ring back or move Rachel Batten in - Mary Fitzpatrick out
Dublin South Central - No seat likely anyway in Daithi De Roiste/Michael Waters out Catherine Ardagh
Dublin Fingal - in Darragh Butler out Lorraine Clifford Lee
Kerry in Darragh O'Se ( any O'Se) out Norma Moriarty

and so on any former candidates get the hump. Let them run Independent .... they can always come home after a while !
 

Round tower

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Joined
Feb 9, 2011
Messages
7,801
So if all the talk of coalitions come to nothing and we face a second election. What lessons have each of the parties learnt and what changes would they make for second election.

A lot will be decided on the mood of the nation as who caused the second election.

FF

Fianna Fail will have to cull tickets but I suspect changes will be made and I could see them attacking some of the rural SF TD's by placing a close by Councillor on the ticket to try to stifle the SF first preference votes on a geographical basis . Also I suspect a few high profile parachute candidates from the world of sport and entertainment to be added or high profile independent Councillors being approached to beef up ticket. Also I feel a few of Sinn Fein's clothes will be stolen and would expect a more robust pragmatic approach to housing and health in a new manifesto. FF problem will be it will still be lead by Micheal Martin in any quick rerun.

FG

Similar to FF they will look at the tickets and see where they can stem the tide. They may go for a more explicit right wing tax cutting manifesto and aggressively target middle class Dublin voters. Look for them to target a second seat in DBS, DL and Fingal at the expense of FF and Labour. They will run on a red scare,stop SF election. They will seek to move the economy and Brexit centre stage again. It failed this time but may be more effective now people can see SF and left could possibly form a government after 2nd election.

SF

They are riding high. This time last year people expected them to lose seats instead of pick them up. In 3 months how do the electoral feel ? They will run additional candidates to hoover up the SPBP seats and other soft left seats. Now that SF have won people will see its not a wasted vote so might pick up a few extra seats but they will be cautious of not over extending itself. Expect their manifesto to be much more thoroughly looked through and any nutty ideas pointed out as they could be leading the next government. Election will suit them as Mary Lou will be treated as potential next Taoiseach and they will get more coverage due to their increased size. A lot more questions will be asked about their coalition partners and red lines. SF have played the long game well and always talked of building incrementally. I would expect a lot more focus on its policies than the IRA the next time but the Sindo will happily throw shite all day long but it doesn't stick anymore although expect lots of use of the Dessie Ellis/ David Cullinane victory celebrations in coverage.

Labour

Labour is doomed and it might lose even more seats in the next election. Ged Nash will have a FF target on his back, Aodhan will have a second SFer for company, None of their seats seem safe bar Howlin and FF will surely run a wexford town candidate to join Browne and Byrne. Duncan Smith will have Dean Mulligan breathing down his neck in Fingal. A party that does not want a second election desperately.

Green Party

A good result to get 12 seats. I expect a FG attack in Dublin on its middle class supporters. They should hold around the same maybe replace Healy in DBN and get a seat. Their vote is a fickle one.

Soc Dems

A good election and picking up strong transfers along the line helped by strong SF surplus votes. Seemed a better option for left wing transfers than Labour. They won a lot of last seats can their luck hold again ?

SPBP

They will claim they don't need to be in the Dáil to carry on the struggle but if they are not in the Dáil then you wont see much of them on TV in the coming years. A lot of them owe their seats to strong SF transfers which might not be available with a second SF candidate looking at Dublin South Central or Cork North Central in particular. Some of them have a visceral hatred of SF as not left enough but how do they temper that to keep getting SF transfers?

Independents

Its a mixed bag established ones should hold on again but newer ones such as Shanahan in Waterford, O'Donoghue in Limerick County, Berry in Kildare South will have large targets on their backs.


A second election would be fascinating and no two elections ever run the same. Who would of said in January that the pension issue would be huge and no one cared anything about Brexit !
It's interesting seen somewhere that the Solid./PBP got the largest no of transfers from SF and as far as i know they caane back with 5 TD's the exact same amount of TD's that they had in the old Dail. If the SF surge and with So./PBP getting the most transfers would u not think they would have got more TD's, so would aa 2nd SF candidate got elected. In BA days in a GE his runing mate had only 11 or 1200 first preference and got elected
 

midlander12

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Jul 29, 2008
Messages
6,354
I voted Sinn Féin on the basis that they would likely wind up as a junior coalition partner to FF or FG, and neither FF or FG made a decent stab at sorting out the two major domestic issues in the outgoing coalition. In prior general elections I have voted no 1 for FF or Labour usually, but also FG and Catherine Murphy - I'm an out and out floating voter. My vote in a second election is not at all guaranteed to go SF again despite the fact that I traditionally lean left and republican. Two major factors will influence my vote in another election. 1) I will lean towards whichever parties make the best genuine effort to form a government, and 2) if SF don't water down their voodoo economics manifesto, I'm unlikely to consider them for a top three preference. I mean their manifesto was alright for a party which expected to hit no more than 15% of the vote but it's irresponsible for a mainstream party representing a quarter of the electorate.

I expect others of the not-a-scrounger but want people to be able afford their own homes category who "lent" SF their vote for this election may also carefully consider whether they vote SF again. So I don't think anyone can take it as a given that SF will automatically keep their current share of the vote and thus gain seats.
It's usually not a good idea to vote for a party advocating 'voodoo economics' - it's a question of being careful what you wish for!
 

owedtojoy

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Feb 27, 2010
Messages
50,194
There are strong voices in FF and FG against any alignment with Sinn Fein.

Labour have already said they will not join any Government, but might support one. I have a feeling the Soc Dems might feel the same way.

The chances of a stable Government emerging seem to grow worse by the day.

Something might be cobbled together for Brexit - there is a European Heads of Government meeting at the end of March to agree negotiating strategy, and we need to have a strong representation. The EU want Fishing to be done and dusted by July - it is not a major issue in terms of GDP, but of enormous symbolic significance.

(Yet 1% of Voters in the Exit Poll said Brexit influenced their vote)

I think we may stagger along into the Autumn, but something's gotta give soon.
 

Baron von Biffo

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Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
16,262
I was thinking of some Fianna Fáil ticket changes and I would impose them from HQ and **** the grassroots ! ( My younger self is spinning at the idea and frothing at the mouth !!)

Roscommon East Galway - in Pascal Fitzmaurice and John Keogh out Murphy /Leyden
Sligo Leitrim - in Paul Taylor and beg Sinead Guckian to run out Scanlon/Ellis
Galway East - in Colm Keaveney Out Donogh Killilea
Wateford - in Adam Wyse ( Beg Ken McGrath ) out Eddie Mulligan
Wexford - in Gary Laffan - Out Michael Sheehan/Lisa McDonald
Westmeath - Add Aeongus O'Rourke to see if he can get Athlone seat
Rathdown - in Olivia Buckley - Out Shay Brennan
Louth in Emma Coffey - Out James Byrne
Dublin Central - Ask Nial Ring back or move Rachel Batten in - Mary Fitzpatrick out
Dublin South Central - No seat likely anyway in Daithi De Roiste/Michael Waters out Catherine Ardagh
Dublin Fingal - in Darragh Butler out Lorraine Clifford Lee
Kerry in Darragh O'Se ( any O'Se) out Norma Moriarty

and so on any former candidates get the hump. Let them run Independent .... they can always come home after a while !
The problem with that is you're dropping a load of GQ candidates and at the next election the quota is going up to 40%.

BTW, While I wouldn't agree with all your assessments, that was a fine OP.
 

Round tower

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Messages
7,801
There are strong voices in FF and FG against any alignment with Sinn Fein.

Labour have already said they will not join any Government, but might support one. I have a feeling the Soc Dems might feel the same way.

The chances of a stable Government emerging seem to grow worse by the day.

Something might be cobbled together for Brexit - there is a European Heads of Government meeting at the end of March to agree negotiating strategy, and we need to have a strong representation. The EU want Fishing to be done and dusted by July - it is not a major issue in terms of GDP, but of enormous symbolic significance.

(Yet 1% of Voters in the Exit Poll said Brexit influenced their vote)

I think we may stagger along into the Autumn, but something's gotta give soon.
Agree but if their is no Gov. in place by that meeting wont we be reperseented by LV who is Taoiseach till a new gov. is elected
 

locke

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Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,372
If we get a Government that stumbles on for a few years, at what point do the new census figures kick in?

We've reached the limit of the 1:30K ratio and with the population forecast to be in the range of 5m-5.1m in 2021, we will need in the region of 167-170 TDs.

Where these TDs go will also make a big difference.

3-4 will be in Dublin
Another 1 will be in the Kildare/Meath area.
1 will be in Cork (likely skewed towards the current Cork East constituency, but may force a more significant redraw of Cork boundaries)
Any others will be spread around the country with some boundary redraws.

Obviously it will depend on where the seats are added. Creating larger constituencies in Dublin could actually benefit FF. However, in general, you would reckon that an expansion in urban and peri-urban constituencies would not favour FG and FF.
 

Clanrickard

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Joined
Apr 25, 2008
Messages
34,159
If we get a Government that stumbles on for a few years, at what point do the new census figures kick in?

We've reached the limit of the 1:30K ratio and with the population forecast to be in the range of 5m-5.1m in 2021, we will need in the region of 167-170 TDs.

Where these TDs go will also make a big difference.

3-4 will be in Dublin
Another 1 will be in the Kildare/Meath area.
1 will be in Cork (likely skewed towards the current Cork East constituency, but may force a more significant redraw of Cork boundaries)
Any others will be spread around the country with some boundary redraws.

Obviously it will depend on where the seats are added. Creating larger constituencies in Dublin could actually benefit FF. However, in general, you would reckon that an expansion in urban and peri-urban constituencies would not favour FG and FF.
Very good point. Not talked about as well.
 

Round tower

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Joined
Feb 9, 2011
Messages
7,801
If we get a Government that stumbles on for a few years, at what point do the new census figures kick in?

We've reached the limit of the 1:30K ratio and with the population forecast to be in the range of 5m-5.1m in 2021, we will need in the region of 167-170 TDs.

Where these TDs go will also make a big difference.

3-4 will be in Dublin
Another 1 will be in the Kildare/Meath area.
1 will be in Cork (likely skewed towards the current Cork East constituency, but may force a more significant redraw of Cork boundaries)
Any others will be spread around the country with some boundary redraws.

Obviously it will depend on where the seats are added. Creating larger constituencies in Dublin could actually benefit FF. However, in general, you would reckon that an expansion in urban and peri-urban constituencies would not favour FG and FF.
Yes, they should try to get rid of the 3 seater constituencies and having only 4 an 5
 

Marcos the black

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Joined
Feb 3, 2009
Messages
18,598
It looking like SF will be kept outta power.
FG is coming under major pressure to facilitate another confidence/supply arrangement as in previous Dáil.
The Greens will probably go into coalition with FF.
Another election is 3 years away.
McDowell was calling for a merger of FFG on Sunday. That will happen in 3 years when SF have 60seats.
Really? Are they?
 

ainm_eile

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Joined
Jun 9, 2016
Messages
773
So if all the talk of coalitions come to nothing and we face a second election. What lessons have each of the parties learnt and what changes would they make for second election.

A lot will be decided on the mood of the nation as who caused the second election.

FF

Fianna Fail will have to cull tickets but I suspect changes will be made and I could see them attacking some of the rural SF TD's by placing a close by Councillor on the ticket to try to stifle the SF first preference votes on a geographical basis . Also I suspect a few high profile parachute candidates from the world of sport and entertainment to be added or high profile independent Councillors being approached to beef up ticket. Also I feel a few of Sinn Fein's clothes will be stolen and would expect a more robust pragmatic approach to housing and health in a new manifesto. FF problem will be it will still be lead by Micheal Martin in any quick rerun.

FG

Similar to FF they will look at the tickets and see where they can stem the tide. They may go for a more explicit right wing tax cutting manifesto and aggressively target middle class Dublin voters. Look for them to target a second seat in DBS, DL and Fingal at the expense of FF and Labour. They will run on a red scare,stop SF election. They will seek to move the economy and Brexit centre stage again. It failed this time but may be more effective now people can see SF and left could possibly form a government after 2nd election.

SF

They are riding high. This time last year people expected them to lose seats instead of pick them up. In 3 months how do the electoral feel ? They will run additional candidates to hoover up the SPBP seats and other soft left seats. Now that SF have won people will see its not a wasted vote so might pick up a few extra seats but they will be cautious of not over extending itself. Expect their manifesto to be much more thoroughly looked through and any nutty ideas pointed out as they could be leading the next government. Election will suit them as Mary Lou will be treated as potential next Taoiseach and they will get more coverage due to their increased size. A lot more questions will be asked about their coalition partners and red lines. SF have played the long game well and always talked of building incrementally. I would expect a lot more focus on its policies than the IRA the next time but the Sindo will happily throw shite all day long but it doesn't stick anymore although expect lots of use of the Dessie Ellis/ David Cullinane victory celebrations in coverage.

Labour

Labour is doomed and it might lose even more seats in the next election. Ged Nash will have a FF target on his back, Aodhan will have a second SFer for company, None of their seats seem safe bar Howlin and FF will surely run a wexford town candidate to join Browne and Byrne. Duncan Smith will have Dean Mulligan breathing down his neck in Fingal. A party that does not want a second election desperately.

Green Party

A good result to get 12 seats. I expect a FG attack in Dublin on its middle class supporters. They should hold around the same maybe replace Healy in DBN and get a seat. Their vote is a fickle one.

Soc Dems

A good election and picking up strong transfers along the line helped by strong SF surplus votes. Seemed a better option for left wing transfers than Labour. They won a lot of last seats can their luck hold again ?

SPBP

They will claim they don't need to be in the Dáil to carry on the struggle but if they are not in the Dáil then you wont see much of them on TV in the coming years. A lot of them owe their seats to strong SF transfers which might not be available with a second SF candidate looking at Dublin South Central or Cork North Central in particular. Some of them have a visceral hatred of SF as not left enough but how do they temper that to keep getting SF transfers?

Independents

Its a mixed bag established ones should hold on again but newer ones such as Shanahan in Waterford, O'Donoghue in Limerick County, Berry in Kildare South will have large targets on their backs.


A second election would be fascinating and no two elections ever run the same. Who would of said in January that the pension issue would be huge and no one cared anything about Brexit !
SF are a difficult party to win votes back from. The more FF pivots towards SF, the harder it'll be to argue that they won't go into coalition together.

Tax cuts won't solve the country's problems. FG would just bleed votes to the Greens and SocDems.


SF won't mind being denounced as rightwing by Solidarity.
 
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