Selection of Candidates for Kildare South?

LgCastell

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There hasn't been much analysis of Kildare South

Has Labour's second candidate to run with Wall been chosen?
The two FFer should run but will there be room for two?
FG are running with Cllr Martin Heydon whats he like and will they be running two?

RedC breakdown goes like:

FF - 20.2%
FG - 20.3%
Lab - 54.1%
GP - 3.9%
SF - 0.0%
Indo - 1.5%

Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll 21 November 2010: Fianna Fail down to 29 seats? « politicalreform.ie

FF and FG should be close to get one between them but surely Lab are looking at two with these figures but surely need a candidate selected soon
 
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croppyboy

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There hasn't been much analysis of Kildare South

Has Labour's second candidate to run with Wall been chosen?
The two FFer should run but will there be room for two?
FG are running with Cllr Martin Heydon whats he like and will they be running two?

RedC breakdown goes like:

FF - 20.2%
FG - 20.3%
Lab - 54.1%
GP - 3.9%
SF - 0.0%
Indo - 1.5%

Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll 21 November 2010: Fianna Fail down to 29 seats? « politicalreform.ie

FF and FG should be close to get one between them but surely Lab are looking at two with these figures but surely need a candidate selected soon
I understand the Fianna Fáil convention took place last Friday and the two Seans were re-selected and will be going forward again.

I take issue with the Labour figures suggested in that blog. I've discussed it back at source (AP Kavanagh's tracker site) with the author before. He is adding the national bounce onto the existing Labour vote. In this case I would say Jack Wall gets a very large personal vote and is very well regarded across all parties and none. There's also the GAA connection. So I don't think it can be regarded as a generic Labour seat and expanded accordingly. The point is, there is bound to be some rise in line with national figures but most Labour leaning votes are accounted for here already. I certainly couldn't see them at 54%.

I think 1 FF / 1 FG / 1 LAB is a more realistic forecast.
 

eoghanacht

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I understand the Fianna Fáil convention took place last Friday and the two Seans were re-selected and will be going forward again.
Hasn't power announched he's retiring i thought he had. FG have a constituency office in the town (the Bridge) the last couple of years
 

clonmullin

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I'd have to agree with croppyboy .... Labour's vote in Kildare South will not get the dramatic bounce that the link suggests. There is a 'bounce' already in Labour's historic numbers due to Jack Wall's personal vote.

Heydon is heavily involved in St. Laurences GAA and got 17% in the local elections; without a running mate he should pick up quite a vote from the Athy hinterland (Daly picked up 9% first preferences in 2009) and as long as FG don't get too cute and parachute in someone they'll get their seat back.

That leaves the two Séan's for the 3rd seat - just given the geography of the county Power (despite his anti Biffo stance) may struggle as he'll be fighting against Heydon and Wall in Athy whilst the other Séan has Newbridge.

The Greens & SF have intimated that they wont put forward anyone and if FG stick to Heydon and Labour run a marginal 2nd candidate then the only interest will be which of the two Sean's get in
 
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Casualbets

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I understand the Fianna Fáil convention took place last Friday and the two Seans were re-selected and will be going forward again.

I take issue with the Labour figures suggested in that blog. I've discussed it back at source (AP Kavanagh's tracker site) with the author before. He is adding the national bounce onto the existing Labour vote. In this case I would say Jack Wall gets a very large personal vote and is very well regarded across all parties and none. There's also the GAA connection. So I don't think it can be regarded as a generic Labour seat and expanded accordingly. The point is, there is bound to be some rise in line with national figures but most Labour leaning votes are accounted for here already. I certainly couldn't see them at 54%.

I think 1 FF / 1 FG / 1 LAB is a more realistic forecast.
Yep amen to that. Labour obviously aren't going to jump from 20% to 54%. That finding is obviously using a multiplicative formula (ie nationally labour going from 10% to 27%, therefore Labour in Kildare South going from 20% to 54% or something like that). It's hard to say what Labour will get in Kildare South in the absence of a 2nd candidate, but at this moment in time I'd forecast roughly 30-35%.
 

Casualbets

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I'd have to agree with croppyboy .... Labour's vote in Kildare South will not get the dramatic bounce that the link suggests. There is a 'bounce' already in Labour's historic numbers due to Jack Wall's personal vote.

Heydon is heavily involved in St. Laurences GAA and got 17% in the local elections; without a running mate he should pick up quite a vote from the Athy hinterland (Daly picked up 9% first preferences in 2009) and as long as FG don't get too cute and parachute in someone they'll get their seat back.

That leaves the two Séan's for the 3rd seat - just given the geography of the county Power (despite his anti Biffo stance) may struggle as he'll be fighting against Heydon and Wall in Athy whilst the other Séan has Newbridge.

The Greens & SF have intimated that they wont anyone and if FG stick to Heydon and Labour run a marginal 2nd candidate then the only interest will be which of the two Sean's get in
It's O'Fearghail who's the FF top dog in Athy town not Power. But Power polled better along the M9 which will be Heydon's heartland in 2010. Also, Power's vote in Newbridge is more vulnerable than O'Fearghail's in Kildare - doubly so since Paddy Kennedy entered the race....
 

JMcGynty

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I'd have to agree with croppyboy .... Labour's vote in Kildare South will not get the dramatic bounce that the link suggests. There is a 'bounce' already in Labour's historic numbers due to Jack Wall's personal vote.

Heydon is heavily involved in St. Laurences GAA and got 17% in the local elections; without a running mate he should pick up quite a vote from the Athy hinterland (Daly picked up 9% first preferences in 2009) and as long as FG don't get too cute and parachute in someone they'll get their seat back.

That leaves the two Séan's for the 3rd seat - just given the geography of the county Power (despite his anti Biffo stance) may struggle as he'll be fighting against Heydon and Wall in Athy whilst the other Séan has Newbridge.

The Greens & SF have intimated that they wont put forward anyone and if FG stick to Heydon and Labour run a marginal 2nd candidate then the only interest will be which of the two Sean's get in
You have it backways, Newbridge is Sean power's area and athy is Sean O'Fearghail's area along with Kildare, Rathangan and Monasterevan, Sean Power is also strong in one part of the Athy area in the heart of Heydons home area, Heydon will struggle to take a seat and Fianna Fail might just hold on to what they have
 

clonmullin

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I stand corrected ... cheers.

I remember O'Fearghail having an office in the town but assumed he tried to move his base when it shut down

The only interest at this point will be the battle between the two Séan's
 

JMcGynty

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It's O'Fearghail who's the FF top dog in Athy town not Power. But Power polled better along the M9 which will be Heydon's heartland in 2010. Also, Power's vote in Newbridge is more vulnerable than O'Fearghail's in Kildare - doubly so since Paddy Kennedy entered the race....
Any of Powers vote Kennedy picks up will go back to power in tranfers when Kennedy is eliminated
 

JMcGynty

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I stand corrected ... cheers.

I remember O'Fearghail having an office in the town but assumed he tried to move his base when it shut down

The only interest at this point will be the battle between the two Séan's
Sean O'fearghails office in Athy never closed down
 

the agent

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You have it backways, Newbridge is Sean power's area and athy is Sean O'Fearghail's area along with Kildare, Rathangan and Monasterevan, Sean Power is also strong in one part of the Athy area in the heart of Heydons home area, Heydon will struggle to take a seat and Fianna Fail might just hold on to what they have
you are living in the same bubble as Cowen and the rest of FF if you think they will hold 2 seats here, no chance, Heydon will take a seat, the people cant wait for vengance and all the pot hole filling and local council crap wont be enough to save both seans. I suspect SoF will be in trouble.
 

MichaelMac

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The SF performance in Kildare, North and South, really is quite abysmal. I imagined that it would have been like Meath with the overspill from Dublin getting them a respectable %.
 

JMcGynty

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you are living in the same bubble as Cowen and the rest of FF if you think they will hold 2 seats here, no chance, Heydon will take a seat, the people cant wait for vengance and all the pot hole filling and local council crap wont be enough to save both seans. I suspect SoF will be in trouble.
Did you ever hear Martin Hayden Talking on any subject, he cant put two words together and his performance on the Co. Council has been dismal, he will be found out very quickly when he has to debate with Sean O'Fearaighl on KFM, Labour and Fine Gael have had control of the Kildare Co.Council for years and have stifled developement that would create jobs in Kildare and that can be proven, what they did with planning is another story and that will will also be debated during an election campaign
 
L

longshortgrass

Heydon will struggle to take a seat and Fianna Fail might just hold on to what they have
Is that you Mara?

FF will be lucky to hold onto their underwear...:lol:

It's partytime and FF will not get 2 seats in ANY 3 seater constituency.
 

the agent

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Did you ever hear Martin Hayden Talking on any subject, he cant put two words together and his performance on the Co. Council has been dismal, he will be found out very quickly when he has to debate with Sean O'Fearaighl on KFM, Labour and Fine Gael have had control of the Kildare Co.Council for years and have stifled developement that would create jobs in Kildare and that can be proven, what they did with planning is another story and that will will also be debated during an election campaign
and what the F**k has the two seans ever did. Sean P a great man for cracking a joke just like his brother JJ, inherited his seat from the Da, now he is calling for Cowens head because he sees the writing on the wall and is running from the ship like the rat he is. Sof a glorified County Councillor who has done nothing on the national scene in ten years in the dail, sits up there writing press releases about how he filled in a pothole here and a pothole there. and you obviously know nothing about Heydon or even met him. and you have some cheek talking about putting words together in Kildare North Fitzpatrick or Brady are a complete joke when it comes to debates. Brady was a disgrace recently on the frontline, could not make one coherent point and kept looking down at her feet because she knew she was a disgrace.
 

lilywhite

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Did you ever hear Martin Hayden Talking on any subject, he cant put two words together and his performance on the Co. Council has been dismal, he will be found out very quickly when he has to debate with Sean O'Fearaighl on KFM, Labour and Fine Gael have had control of the Kildare Co.Council for years and have stifled developement that would create jobs in Kildare and that can be proven, what they did with planning is another story and that will will also be debated during an election campaign
That's a bit harsh - Heydon is inexperienced, but he is a hardworker and 20 years younger than the next candidate.

The real clincher in KS will be the order of eliminations. If Wall tops the poll, his surplace should help Heydon. Wall could get 30% plus if he is the only Labour candidate and he should clean-up in Athy. Heydon will need these votes to keep him ahead of the two Seans and Kennedy. The real key will be Newbridge. If Kennedy gets a couple of thousand there, he could do Power real damage. If he manages to outlast Power he could get elected as an Ind on the back of Newbridge transfers and votes from the northwest as he is originally from Rathangan.

SOF is an unknown. He has lots of personal votes because of the number of individual cases he handles. His vote could be more committed than Powers. Of the two FF, he is the more backlash proof.
 

JMcGynty

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and what the F**k has the two seans ever did. Sean P a great man for cracking a joke just like his brother JJ, inherited his seat from the Da, now he is calling for Cowens head because he sees the writing on the wall and is running from the ship like the rat he is. Sof a glorified County Councillor who has done nothing on the national scene in ten years in the dail, sits up there writing press releases about how he filled in a pothole here and a pothole there. and you obviously know nothing about Heydon or even met him. and you have some cheek talking about putting words together in Kildare North Fitzpatrick or Brady are a complete joke when it comes to debates. Brady was a disgrace recently on the frontline, could not make one coherent point and kept looking down at her feet because she knew she was a disgrace.
Sean Power was never afraid to speak his mind going back many years to when he opposed haughey, he was one of the first to say get rid of some junior ministery's and he was first to lose out when it happened, i wonder how many junior positions will fine gael/labour get rid of, Sean O'fearghaill may have, like all the other candidates got some pot holes filled but he did a lot more than that, he has been involved in voluntary housing developements for many years (a founder member) and to date they have built approx 250 houses, Councillor Martin Miley FF has done much more work for the area where Brendan Hayden lives and surrounding areas than Brendan Hayden could even dream about doing, btw way Brendan Hayden not that long ago realised Martin Mileys potential and helped with his campaign and also put up posters for him. its not that long ago really.
 

the agent

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Sean Power was never afraid to speak his mind going back many years to when he opposed haughey, he was one of the first to say get rid of some junior ministery's and he was first to lose out when it happened, i wonder how many junior positions will fine gael/labour get rid of, Sean O'fearghaill may have, like all the other candidates got some pot holes filled but he did a lot more than that, he has been involved in voluntary housing developements for many years (a founder member) and to date they have built approx 250 houses, Councillor Martin Miley FF has done much more work for the area where Brendan Hayden lives and surrounding areas than Brendan Hayden could even dream about doing, btw way Brendan Hayden not that long ago realised Martin Mileys potential and helped with his campaign and also put up posters for him. its not that long ago really.
you really are a clown, Its Martin Heydon not Brendan Hayden. now go back into your FF bubble/cave. FF have destroyed this Country, and SP and SoF are just as responsible as the rest of the FF idiots who have ruined this state.
 


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