Sen Paschal DOnohoe still hot favourite for Dublin Central!

Supermanpolitician

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midlander12

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I think the failure of any of the left candidates of emerge ahead of the pack has helped Donoghue. None of them is particularly cross-party-friendly and Bacik is simply the wrong candidate for this constituency. However if it is decided by FF transfers I would be slow to predict the outcome. On the other hand, it is extraordinary to be even talking about a possible FG victory in this constituency. You have to go back to 1981-82 to see FG on more than 25% here, and even then they would not have won a by-election here (they lost badly in 83 though of course they were in govt and unpopular by then). It will be incredible if the left cannot win a by-election in this most working-class of constituencies at the height of the worst recession at least since the war.
 

MacCoise

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Haven't been able to get a price from Celtic, but bookies are usually bang on.
Not sure about that, Lisbon?

I recall them being fairly wide of the mark in ter,s of specific constituencies as well. i think it's his to lose having said that
 

Kev408

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My God!! I work there and live about 200 yards from central but I never heard of him. Who is he?
 

JCSkinner

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Ahern is toast. If FF voters don't come out, it's Donohue's seat. If they do come out, it'll come down to transfers.
Bacik should do well from Sullivan and Burke. The question is whether she's too radical for the Drummer mafia to transfer to.
 

Kev408

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I genuinely never heard of the bloke. Not one person at any door has mentioned his name. I mustn't be doing my job right (seriously). Oh maybe it's because I canvass in both areas - I really am not sure.
 

AlanOB

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I don't think it's lazy journalism at all. I think the bookies have got it wrong for once.

As someone else said, DC is a working class constituency. There are a number of lefty candidates who will attract votes and their transfers will favour the leading lefty (Bacik or O'Sullivan).

I agree with the article that it will therefore come down to FF transfers, and they are not going to transfer to Donohue (who will be the poll topper). I reckon O'Sullivan will receive more FF transfers than Bacik.
 

KBK

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The bookies got it totally wrong on lisbon and thet have it totally wrong here.This seat is going left.Burke or OSullivan.Just because INM want to see him win and are plugging him the whole time doesnt mean that hes going to win.Hes a complete nerd.All you have to do is listen to him for a few minutes and you will see what i mean.He may resonate with pockets in phibsboro and the navan road but thats it.
 

Paddylekker

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The bookies got it totally wrong on lisbon and thet have it totally wrong here
Do you understand how prices work in bookies?

The odds being offered by bookies are not a reflection of what chance the bookie thinks a certain event has of coming to pass. The prices are a reflection of what people are putting their money on. All the bookie does is balance his book and build in his, rather generous, edge.

Paschal Donohoe is favourite because he has had the most money staked on him winning. Irish political betting markets aren't liquid at local and constituency level so it wouldn't take much money to have him odds-on.

The bookies don't want Paschal to win. They prefer long shots to come home.
 

stripey cat

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As the left wing candidates are eliminated, their votes transfer to each other. A lot depends on who gets the most first preference votes to match Paschal Donohue. I would have said the Labour Party candidate, but the local party doesn't seem to be helping Bacik and she has no history in the constituency, so the next front runner is Maureen O'Sullivan. Talking to people around the area though, I'm not sure she is going to get huge amounts fo Gregory voters coming over to her up in Cabra, so it might just be Burke, who has a large organisation working for him.

Whoever it is is going to gather more and votes as the likes of the Christian Solidarity and The Workers Party are knocked out until Bacik is eliminated and it is a O'Sullivan or Burke (probably Burke) vs Aherne vs Donohue.

Whoever is second at that stage will decide it, as their transfers from the third placed candidate will push them ahead of Donohue.

Whether this is Maurice depends on the Fianna Fail turnout, and I haven't seen them do anything to rally their troops.

It just might be Sinn Féin this time.
 
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I'm Neutral

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Sen Paschal Donohoe still hot favourite for Dublin Central

This is a "tantalising" by-election in sofar as all the main candidates have plusses and minuses i.e.

Donohoe (FG) has a low party base but won a council seat on his debut in 2004 by knocking out an FG councillor in Cabra/Glasnevin.Followed this up by finishing a not very
close runner up for the last seat in the 2007 General Election (against very hot competition).Since then elected senator and has been working the constituency.
Lives and went to school in the constituency.
Has name recognition.

Maurice Ahern (FF) - scraped in to the last seat in the Cabra/Glasnevin Ward in 2004.
Brother of You Know Who !
Has sur-name recognition but is that a plus ? Looks like June 5th will produce shocking results overall for FF.

Ivana Bacik (Lab). Did stand in the 2004 Euro Elections for the Dublin Constituency and
apparently polled ok (though behind her Lab running mate) in the Dublin Central portion.
Presumably has not been working the constituency since.Elected to the Senate via the TCD
constituency in 2007.Reid Law professors (Robinson & McAleese) have a mediocre record
in Dail Elections.Only selected for Dub Central at the beginning of May.
All recent published opinion polls for General Election/Euro/Local Elections show Labour
behind FG in the Greater Dublin Area.Also, could struggle to get transfers from socially conservative FF voters.
Bacik's name recognition - not great.

Christy Burke (SF) -vastly experienced councillor.has stood in previous General and By-elections.Almost certainly a better SF candidate for this constuency than Mary Lou.
Name recognition - very good. No surprise if he comes second on the first count to Donohoe.

Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind) - has never stood in an election.Was co-opted to Mick Rafferty's
council seat a year ago.Interestingly Rafferty polled poorly on the Gregory "ticket" in the
Local Elections of 2004 ( North Inner City Ward). Also , in the General Election of 1997
FG scored over 20% in Ballybough/North Strand/East Wall (then part of Dublin North Central) when Tony Gregory was standing in Dub Central.Gregory failed totally to pass on "his" vote to his supporter Finian McGrath , on that occasion.
Name recognition - poor.
Undoubtedly has potential but has to be at least 3rd on the first count to have a chance.

Its a tricky one, but IF Donohoe is getting 25%-30% first prefs then that shows he is a very attractive candidate and he will get substantial transfers.Thats the way the system
works, but I'm still not making a forecast !
 

codology

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This could get very interesting in the later counts and the biggest challenge to FG could well be the last one standing between Osullivan and Burke as they will probably transfer well to each other.Bacic is a good candidate in the Wrong constituency(shades of M LOU).
 

Horace Horse

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I genuinely never heard of the bloke. Not one person at any door has mentioned his name. I mustn't be doing my job right (seriously). Oh maybe it's because I canvass in both areas - I really am not sure.

Who do you canvass for? That guy Talbot?
 

Horace Horse

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As the left wing candidates are eliminated, their votes transfer to each other. A lot depends on who gets the most first preference votes to match Paschal Donohue. I would have said the Labour Party candidate, but the local party doesn't seem to be helping Bacik and she has no history in the constituency, so the next front runner is Maureen O'Sullivan. Talking to people around the area though, I'm not sure she is going to get huge amounts fo Gregory voters coming over to her up in Cabra, so it might just be Burke, who has a large organisation owrking for him.

Whoever it is is going to gather more and votes as the likes of the Christian Solidarity and The Workers Party are knocked out until Bacik is eliminated and it is a OSulliavn or Burke (probably Burke) vs Aherne vs Donohue.

Whoever is second at that stage will decide it, as their transfers from the third placed candidate will push them ahead of Donohue.

Whether this is Maurice depends on the Fianna Fail turnout, and I haven't seen them do anything to rally their troops.

It just might be Sinn Féin this time.
Cogent. I too think Burke could do the trick. You didn't mention another factor--that he has few enemies in the constituency. Lot of people will toss him a 2nd or 3rd preference.
Must see what odds they are offering against him.
 

KBK

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I said on a previous thread several weeks ago that i thought burke would win.Based on the campaign that hes running to date i have no reason to change my mind.
 

oscail

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I read a couple of crazy articles during the week from the usual lazy journalists inclduing Sam Smyth and others.
Dublin Central By-Election - FF the rank outsider as others jockey for position
But was just on the Paddy Power website.
Dublin Central - Irish By-elections Betting Odds from Paddy Power
Paschal is 8/13 and well ahead of others, who are 11/4.

Haven't been able to get a price from Celtic, but bookies are usually bang on.



Wouldn't put too much faith in the bookies. They base their book on what money goes on etc. In some cases they open up a book, put in a front runner with short odds to attract money onto it where we don't even know who will be in the field e.g. "who will be the next Irish President". We don't know who wants to run so in fact every person on whom odds may be offered may be a loser.

Also, Mary Lou was 1/25 last time out. How wrong they were !

However, I do think Donohoe is favourite. I surprised some say they never heard of him. He got 4 times more first preferences than Cyprian Brady.

I think the working class aspect of the constituency is overplayed. There's lots of Drumcondra and Glasnevin that isn't very working class.
 

turdsl

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Donohue has to win this one for Fine Gael,it would be a terrible setback not to do so,he is canvassing for months,He must have done the constituency several times by now.
 


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