Senate Elections (2020 edition)

Dame_Enda

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The outcome of the midterms, while less interesting than the presidential elections, is nonetheless crucial in particular for the passage of the potential US-UK trade agreement, and in the case of the Senate elections, the future of the Supreme Court. This thread provides an opportunity to discuss this matter.


North Carolina:
Tillis (R) 41%
Cunningham (D) 40%

South Carolina:
Graham (R-inc): 42%
Harrison (D) 42%

Michigan:
Peters (D) 46%
James (R) 36%

Arizona:
Kelly 50%
McSally 44%
 


hiding behind a poster

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Could you maybe put in bold type which is the incumbent party in each case?
 

Dame_Enda

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The edit button isn't working for me on the US section for some reason.

Michigan is a currently held by a Democratic senator in the seat up for election this year. The other 3 are Republican, but Marty McSally was appointed by Republican governor Doug Ducey and was never elected to the Senate. In fact she was defeated when running for former Senator Jon Kyl's Senate seat (the other Arizona seat), against Kirsten Synema.
 

Paddyc

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The edit button isn't working for me on the US section for some reason.

Michigan is a currently held by a Democratic senator in the seat up for election this year. The other 3 are Republican, but Marty McSally was appointed by Republican governor Doug Ducey and was never elected to the Senate. In fact she was defeated when running for former Senator Jon Kyl's Senate seat (the other Arizona seat), against Kirsten Synema.
Thanks for setting this up for us nerdy types, just one tiny nerdy detail. The Arizona senator who is was appointed to sit out John McCain's seat is Martha McSally, not Marty. I'd blame predictive text myself...
 

NYCKY

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Thanks for setting this up for us nerdy types, just one tiny nerdy detail. The Arizona senator who is was appointed to sit out John McCain's seat is Martha McSally, not Marty. I'd blame predictive text myself...

I would also add that the Arizona senate seat is only for two years, to fill out the last portion of the seat John McCain won in 2016, and will be up again for the full six year term in 2022.
 

firefly123

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Lindsay Graham losing his gig would be most salubrious
 

Jack Walsh

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Rarely polled Maine
Susan Collins trailing by 9%

The polling company Victory Geek have an asterisk, but I cannot see anything online that they are either GOP or Dem affiliated

Dems are definitely now looking at two very likely flips in Colorado and Arizona, a fairly likely flip in Maine, a better than 50% shot in North Carolina, very much alive in both Georgia contests and Montana, with the very divisive Kris Kobach even giving them a shot in Kansas
Outside shots in Texas and Kentucky with maybe even a sniff in Sth Carolina developing
But realistically we should not even be discussing these last three (or Kansas for that matter)

I actually think lose Senate but Trump somehow scrapping home in presidential would be a monumental catastrophe for GOP
He and his family would then completely own the party and dissent would be non existent and a Don junior run in 2024 almost inevitable
Holding senate and Trump comfortably beaten would give GOP enough leverage to run him and his family out of town and rebuild
Midterms are likely to be a tough one if a Biden presidency
The huge enthusiasm reflected in stock market that 2021 will boom, looks to me to be lunacy
 

Dame_Enda

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Rumours from.the twitterati about another closeted gay Republican senator who hypocritically supports homophobia in public. Could it swing a senate race?
 

Jack Walsh

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Rumours from.the twitterati about another closeted gay Republican senator who hypocritically supports homophobia in public. Could it swing a senate race?
Hmm
A Republican senator who is homophobic?
That narrows it down to about 35
 

Jack Walsh

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This is where I found the twitter gossip about him.

As much as I dislike the senator he is trying to out (he has twice used his initials), I doubt that senator given his huge national profile is dumb enough or reckless enough to repeatedly hire gay porn stars for sex and imagine he could get away with it long term.
That's doomed to end in certain public exposure

I'll believe this has legs when a major outlet runs with it, but not before.
 

Paddyc

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As much as I dislike the senator he is trying to out (he has twice used his initials), I doubt that senator given his huge national profile is dumb enough or reckless enough to repeatedly hire gay porn stars for sex and imagine he could get away with it long term.
That's doomed to end in certain public exposure

I'll believe this has legs when a major outlet runs with it, but not before.
I'd take it with a large pinch of salt as well, but one of the claims is that the senator in question had the sex workers in question sign NDAs in advance - something he learned from Trump? - and this possibly lured him into a sense of security.
 

Sync

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You can't understate how much fun the MA Dem situation is.

Ed Markey's the MA Senator since 2013, very popular and actually: Good at the job. But Joe Kennedy has decided it's his time now. He's Bobby's grandson, and like when you photocopy a photocopy: He's a bit shit. His entire campaign, career and existence is based on the very worst familial nepotism going.

The debates are fun. Essentially they come down to Markey pointing to his decades long record of success and achievement and Kennedy saying "Sure, but I don't like this thing you did 30 years ago and would vote differently. I'm a Kennedy btw".

Because politics is awful, he'll probably win.

Ed however has a lovely ad which is solely the idiot offspring Kennedy pointing out why people should vote for Markey.

 

Dame_Enda

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Alabama Democratic senator Doug Jones looks set to lose his seat regardless of whether the GOP candidate is Tuberville (currently ahead in primary polls) or Sessions (the former AG). Trump supporting Tuberville. Will he support Sessions if hes the candidate? If not it could help Jones' chances.

 

Jack Walsh

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Alabama Democratic senator Doug Jones looks set to lose his seat regardless of whether the GOP candidate is Tuberville (currently ahead in primary polls) or Sessions (the former AG). Trump supporting Tuberville. Will he support Sessions if hes the candidate? If not it could help Jones' chances.

No polling in nearly 4 months and he was only trailing by 7-8% then
I'd imagine given Trump/GOP slippage since, Jones may not be far behind right now

A huge ask for him to retain but not the almost certainty to lose I would have thought six months ago
 

Jack Walsh

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You can't understate how much fun the MA Dem situation is.

Ed Markey's the MA Senator since 2013, very popular and actually: Good at the job. But Joe Kennedy has decided it's his time now. He's Bobby's grandson, and like when you photocopy a photocopy: He's a bit shit. His entire campaign, career and existence is based on the very worst familial nepotism going.

The debates are fun. Essentially they come down to Markey pointing to his decades long record of success and achievement and Kennedy saying "Sure, but I don't like this thing you did 30 years ago and would vote differently. I'm a Kennedy btw".

Because politics is awful, he'll probably win.

Ed however has a lovely ad which is solely the idiot offspring Kennedy pointing out why people should vote for Markey.


That is exceptionally harsh on Joe Kennedy.
I think he is far better than you suggest, even if I agree Ed Markey is a way above par Senator

Having the Kennedy name can of course have advantages, especially up in that neck of woods.
But it can be a millstone as well

Apropros of same, I played hurling with and against sons of some of the greatest names ever to play
All were good, well above average standard, but they were on a hiding to nothing
"Not a patch etc..."
Hearing that all your life must be tough

I think that factor is why no Kennedy since Jack, Bobby, Teddy has stayed the course
It's too big an ask and you become disillusioned.

It gets you the leg up and I agree maybe sometimes even unfairly so, but eventually it becomes a burden

As for precedence in being cheeky enough to slap down a primary challenge
Both his grandfather and his grand uncle challenged their own party's incumbent Presidents in 1968 and 1980.

I think this guy has a lot to him, but wouldn't be sorry to see Markey prevail.
But Kenendys don't run campaigns to lose or even campaigns designed to ensure they win next time, so it's probably all or nothing for him too, even at just 39.
 
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Jack Walsh

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A+ rated pollster Selzer saying Dems in with a real shot of flipping Ohio senate seat

This line in report struck with me from a man who is voting Trump

Darwin Vice, a 59-year old Libertyville resident and poll respondent, said he plans to vote for both Ernst and the president in the fall. He’s particularly concerned about rising health care costs associated with the Affordable Care Act and the influence of money and corporations on politicians.

“I just want them to do what they say they're going to do,” Vice said of elected leaders. “I'm tired of all these years of being lied to.”


As long as there are millions of voters like Darwin Vice who cannot be shaken from his belief that Trump doesn't lie, then Trump still has a good shot at reelection.
 
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Dame_Enda

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Dems need gain of 3 to take control of Senate if Biden becomes President, as his VP will have casting vote. If Trump wins then they need a net gain of 4 seats.

However given the fillibuster rule requires 60 votes to overcome, the Dems might have to make a decision on whether to abolish the legislative fillibuster to have effective control of legislation. An exception to this is the Administrative Procedure Act which allows a simple majority to overturn the actions of federal agencies.

 

NYCKY

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No polling in nearly 4 months and he was only trailing by 7-8% then
I'd imagine given Trump/GOP slippage since, Jones may not be far behind right now

A huge ask for him to retain but not the almost certainty to lose I would have thought six months ago
Jack, best to ignore the lack of polling, this Senate seat is going back to the GOP. You're indulging in flights of fantasy in thinking that there is any chance that Jones retains this seat for the Democrats. Any slim hope that Jones might hold the seat died with Roy Moores defeat in the primary. There isn't a single pollster or commentator that thinks the Democrats will hold this seat. Really, the Democrats biggest hope is that that the networks will wait til the polls actually close before calling the seat for the GOP. This race is over.
 

Jack Walsh

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Jack, best to ignore the lack of polling, this Senate seat is going back to the GOP. You're indulging in flights of fantasy in thinking that there is any chance that Jones retains this seat for the Democrats. Any slim hope that Jones might hold the seat died with Roy Moores defeat in the primary. There isn't a single pollster or commentator that thinks the Democrats will hold this seat. Really, the Democrats biggest hope is that that the networks will wait til the polls actually close before calling the seat for the GOP. This race is over.
NYCKY

That simply is not true.

How can you say pollsters don't give him any chance?
He is closer to Tuberville in polling than Trump is to Biden.
Does that mean pollsters are saying Trump has no chance?
No of course not

He is much closer to Tuberville than Mc Sally is to Kelly in Arizona
Is Arizona a certainty for Dems?
Should we call it before the polls even open?

of course not

Also Cook have it as a bare lean Rep (and even had it as a toss up recently, which I wouldn't agree with)
Cook rate this seat going back red no better probability to Perdue's, Loeffler, Ernst and Daines all four of whom I assume you accept are shaping up as genuine live contests

I respect your views and the way you articulate them but I think you are too wedded to convention
"Dems cannot win seats in deep Red States unless their GOP opponent is a paedo"
They can (Joe Manchin Heidi Heitkamp, Jon Tester), as can Republicans in Blue States

If you or anyone connected really do feel Jones has absolutely no chance, PM me
I'll have a bet up to 2k on Jones at 25/1 if anyone willing.
I'd happily lay a bet at 25/1 if I genuinely felt the outcome had virtually no chance of occurring
That's a genuine offer, not provocation, if you pass on it no sweat (and you'd be right to pass!)
 


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