SF Candidates in 26 County General Election

picador

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Sinn Féin have been getting plaudits of late for its leading role in challenging the current government and the apparent consensus in dealing with the economic / banking crisis. Anecdotal evidence - e.g. contributions to this site - suggests many who would never have voted SF in the past are now considering switiching to the party (or giving SF a second preference). But how will apparent rise in support this translate into seats at the coming election?

SF will need good candidates at consitutency level if they are to make a significant breakthrough. We know about Gerry Adams moving to Louth and we know about Pearse Doherty in Donegal SW - but who else will be running for Sinn Féin and what chance to they stand of being elected?
 


cogol

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Latest red C polls suggests 11 seats... Can't find it now, but I'm sure someone will dig it out.
 

realistic1

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Sinn Féin have been getting plaudits of late for its leading role in challenging the current government and the apparent consensus in dealing with the economic / banking crisis. Anecdotal evidence - e.g. contributions to this site - suggests many who would never have voted SF in the past are now considering switiching to the party (or giving SF a second preference). But how will apparent rise in support this translate into seats at the coming election?

SF will need good candidates at consitutency level if they are to make a significant breakthrough. We know about Gerry Adams moving to Louth and we know about Pearse Doherty in Donegal SW - but who else will be running for Sinn Féin and what chance to they stand of being elected?
Maurice Quinlivan in Limerick East, he polled 2000+ votes in 2007 election. Hopefully his media profile might get him a extra 1000+ votes. Not enough but will get him established.
 

Fr. Hank Tree

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I would suggest that SF's focus in the next GE be on winning a few high profile seats and getting its organisation in order. The big opportunity for SF in terms of seats will be in the following election where they will quite possibly have opposition to share only with a hated FF. That election will also co-incide with 1916. Also, SF were set to make big gains after 2002 but lost the momentum. It now seems plausible that those gains were merely delayed in the midst of the boom and that SF are due a major bump in their vote. Thus, they should concentarte on laying the foundations so as to maximise their seat number in the following GE.
 

Oldira1

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It depends. Labour and Fine Gael will form the next Government with a massive majority. It is important that there is a strong and vocal opposition to hold the Government to account in the Dail. Fianna Fail have lost all credibility so I would hope Sinn Fein can fill that vacumn. Would it not be better if Sinn Fein have 12-15 meaning FG/Lab have 110 seats rather than 115? 6 extra SF TDs will make more of a difference than 6 extra lobbey fodder for FG/Lab.
 

Nordie Northsider

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SF were set to make big gains after 2002 but lost the momentum. It now seems plausible that those gains were merely delayed in the midst of the boom and that SF are due a major bump in their vote.
No offence, Hank, but I'm not sure that's how elections work. There's no point denying that the calibre of SF candidates is not great, although it could improve if the party has a few competent figures such as Doherty.

There's no denying either that hostility to SF is almost a cultural thing among the middle classes. Sometimes I think that SF have positioned themselves far enough on the left to frighten conservative-minded people without fully convincing genuine lefties. Yes, Eoin Ó Broin is a socialist, but Arthur Morgan? Martin Ferris? We talk about the North/South split hampering SF. I think the urban/rural divide, which translates as a socialist/nationalist split, is just as significant.
 

RahenyFG

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Sinn Fein should definitely run more candidates. I read a book called 'New Sinn Fein' where it said 37 candidates ran for the party in the 2007 General Election. If Sinn Fein want to make a significant breakthrough and possibly get into government, cos they won't govern with Fine Gael (who they hate) in the next government, then more candidates need to be run in order for Sinn Fein to make a serious breakthrough and challenge the 'big three'
 
R

RepublicanSocialist1798

Maurice Quinlivan in Limerick East, he polled 2000+ votes in 2007 election. Hopefully his media profile might get him a extra 1000+ votes. Not enough but will get him established.
Labour apparently are considering him a threat to getting a second seat down there.

He's the dark horse in Limerick City; though I can't see him getting the necessary transfers.
 

thetruthsback

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Well, it really depends on how far FF falls in the election. The problem with SF it is run from Belfast as opposed to Labour, FF and FG who are controlled by Berlin
 

JoeHickey

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Labour apparently are considering him a threat to getting a second seat down there.

He's the dark horse in Limerick City; though I can't see him getting the necessary transfers.
its not just labour that are afraid of Quinlivan
Fine Gael councillors want former mayor Kiely added to general election ticket - Limerick Leader

The last seat in Limerick will be a dogfight between Joe Leddin (Lab), Kieran O'Donnell (FG) and Maurice Quinlivan (SF) with all agreeing Peter Power (FF) being toast. I believe unless O'Donnell is well ahead of both Quinlivan and Leddin then which ever of them is ahead will leaffrog the other having transferred heavily to each.
 

Knight of Tara

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I'm just going to list a couple of constituencies that I think Sinn Fein has a good chance of getting or gaining in (in the case of Cavan-Monaghan) and who I imagine would be running there. I am mostly basing this on the last election.

Cavan-Monaghan - I could see Sinn Fein getting two seats here, instead of the one safe seat held by Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin TD.

Louth - Gerry Adams is running here, of course. As there is already a Sinn Fein seat here, I am pretty sure he will be elected.

Donegal SW - Pearse Doherty

Donegal NE - Padraig MacLochlainn will run here again as he came so so close last time.

Kerry North - Martin Ferris TD

Dublin Central - Mary Lou MacDonald

Dublin SC - Aengus Ó Snodaigh TD

I may put up more as I look over them.
 

Murph

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I hear Sean Crowe is looking good to recapture his DW seat, and Sandra mcLellan has an outside chance of taking an FF held seat in Cork East -plus Johaton O'Brien in Cork NC.

I was looking at Dotski's projections the other day and he has about another 3 or 4 seats where SF is snapping at the heals of labour (2nd) candidates for seats.
 

Pat Mc Larnon

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If the melt down in FF and the Greens is as substantial as most people believe then SF will have a chance in a number of the Dublin constituencies. I would take Aengus to hold and Sean Crowe to retake DSW. After that DMW and Central with North West also in the mix. The rest of the seats in Dublin should have candidates but no campaigns. All resources should be poured into the 5 constituencies named above.
 

Murph

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No you are wrong there Pat. That has always been the problem where the chosen few in dublin had got the resources at the expense of other candidates better placed to make the breaktrough. Anyway, I think the homework on all that should be well wrapped up by now!
 

willoughby

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Should be Brian Stanley in Laois Offaly. Will get a healthy vote and I'd imagine a substantial protest vote as well but no where near the breakthrough.
 

edor

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I'm just going to list a couple of constituencies that I think Sinn Fein has a good chance of getting or gaining in (in the case of Cavan-Monaghan) and who I imagine would be running there. I am mostly basing this on the last election.

Cavan-Monaghan - I could see Sinn Fein getting two seats here, instead of the one safe seat held by Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin TD.

Louth - Gerry Adams is running here, of course. As there is already a Sinn Fein seat here, I am pretty sure he will be elected.

Donegal SW - Pearse Doherty

Donegal NE - Padraig MacLochlainn will run here again as he came so so close last time.

Kerry North - Martin Ferris TD

Dublin Central - Mary Lou MacDonald

Dublin SC - Aengus Ó Snodaigh TD

I may put up more as I look over them.



Are you sure thet's the direction Mary Lou's parachute is pointed this time out? Was there not talk of her moving elsewhere in Dublin?
 
R

RepublicanSocialist1798

Are you sure thet's the direction Mary Lou's parachute is pointed this time out? Was there not talk of her moving elsewhere in Dublin?
She's been working fairly hard in Dublin Central.

BTW she does actually live in the constituency.
 

Arracht

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Mary Lou is a liability, she can't think outside her script and usually comes across as a bluffing idiot when she has to think on her feet. I reckon she costs SF potential votes any time she is on tv.
 

Pat Mc Larnon

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No you are wrong there Pat. That has always been the problem where the chosen few in dublin had got the resources at the expense of other candidates better placed to make the breaktrough. Anyway, I think the homework on all that should be well wrapped up by now!

Murph, I have listed the areas where I think, on this occasion, SF are best placed to get a break through. I can't see any others where there is a chance of a Dail seat. You may have local knowledge and I would certainly like to hear it.
I would like to see all constituencies fought on an even keel but unfortunately we are fighting Assemby and local elections in the 6 counties next May and we face a strecth on resources that those constrained by Britain's border do not face.
I do recognise that there is a need to put up a performance in each constituency in order to create the foundation to win back the council seats that have been lost of late.
 

Pat Mc Larnon

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She's been working fairly hard in Dublin Central.

BTW she does actually live in the constituency.

I was in the constituency a few times over the past couple of months. We got a good reception and the local organisation is very confident.
 


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