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SF to be the biggest winners in next year's Euros?


Keith-M

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At the moment our Euro representation is as follows;
FG : 4
FF : 3
LP : 3
SP : 1
Ind: 1

However if you look at the current party ratings it looks like we are in for a big shake-up next year.

FG should be able to hold their 4 (one in each constituency) although the Dublin seat may be under a slight threat.
FF should also be able to hold their 3 and could challenge for one in Dublin where they currently have no MEP and on a very good day, for a second in Munster.
Labour are in serious trouble. The seats in East (Childers) and South loo to be gone and even in Dublin they could lose out to a swing to SF.
SP With Higgins not standing as his protege having a low profile, this seat is in serious trouble and may be gone completely if the ULA run a candidate.
Ind : Harkin is most likely to hold in North West.

The big winners are likely to be SF. They should take a seat in Dublin at the expense of Labour or SP. They should take Labour's seats in South and East. The only major challenge to them is in North West, where they are strong but will be fighting strong traditional votes for FF and FG and Harkin won't go down without a major fight.
 

Tough Paddy

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Aug 3, 2010
Messages
11,505
At the moment our Euro representation is as follows;
FG : 4
FF : 3
LP : 3
SP : 1
Ind: 1

However if you look at the current party ratings it looks like we are in for a big shake-up next year.

FG should be able to hold their 4 (one in each constituency) although the Dublin seat may be under a slight threat.
FF should also be able to hold their 3 and could challenge for one in Dublin where they currently have no MEP and on a very good day, for a second in Munster.
Labour are in serious trouble. The seats in East (Childers) and South loo to be gone and even in Dublin they could lose out to a swing to SF.
SP With Higgins not standing as his protege having a low profile, this seat is in serious trouble and may be gone completely if the ULA run a candidate.
Ind : Harkin is most likely to hold in North West.

The big winners are likely to be SF. They should take a seat in Dublin at the expense of Labour or SP. They should take Labour's seats in South and East. The only major challenge to them is in North West, where they are strong but will be fighting strong traditional votes for FF and FG and Harkin won't go down without a major fight.
If I were you, Britney, and had you record on predicting elections, I'd be keeping schtum!! Or are you just hoping to put the vooodooo on the shinners?! :D
 

Northsideman

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I will be asking the question will you stay in Europe if elected or will you feck off and have a substitute take your seat ala Joe Higgins, I won't be voting for any of that crap.

As to SF, who will be their candidates, they will need heavy weights for this.
 

LamportsEdge

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Jan 10, 2012
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21,894
Won't the European elections also be held as usual on the same day as a load of council elections?

Not wishing to take away from the emphasis the OP stresses but I think the Euros could well be swamped by interest in what happens in the local elections on that day.

For example the council elections are the bottom rung in Fianna Fail's corrupt little nursery and a great example of arranged corruption in Ireland with an extraordinary number of 'family' seats in evidence in the 2007 elections. I believe somewhere around 40% of the seats were held by family members of previous councillors.

I have a feeling that Fianna Fail and 'family' seats are going to get a delayed reaction kicking from the 2011 General Election.
 

Sierra

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Sep 26, 2007
Messages
3,489
The only problem at the moment is that SF don't have the organisation in many areas as of yet to translate the increase in poll support into actual votes, which gives the incumbent parties an advantage.

In saying that I can see them overtaking Labour in the Euro's. That's not surprising though, as SF will replace the Labour party in Irish politics.
 

Northsideman

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Mar 7, 2010
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The only problem at the moment is that SF don't have the organisation in many areas as of yet to translate the increase in poll support into actual votes, which gives the incumbent parties an advantage.

In saying that I can see them overtaking Labour in the Euro's. That's not surprising though, as SF will replace the Labour party in Irish politics.
And Labour have only themselves to blame for that, their pre elections lies are coming back to haunt them and then some. They will retain the Public Sector vote because when it comes down to it they are the only folk they care about, the rest can whistle dixie.
 

rockofcashel

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Jan 23, 2005
Messages
7,956
Website
www.sinnfein.ie
The only problem at the moment is that SF don't have the organisation in many areas as of yet to translate the increase in poll support into actual votes, which gives the incumbent parties an advantage.

In saying that I can see them overtaking Labour in the Euro's. That's not surprising though, as SF will replace the Labour party in Irish politics.
As a matter of interest, what do you know about SFs level of organisation?
 

florin

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Joined
May 17, 2008
Messages
1,367
People tend to vote more for party than for person in the Euros. FF will be lucky to get 0 in Dublin...
 

Analyzer

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Joined
Feb 14, 2011
Messages
46,201
At the moment our Euro representation is as follows;
FG : 4
FF : 3
LP : 3
SP : 1
Ind: 1

However if you look at the current party ratings it looks like we are in for a big shake-up next year.

FG should be able to hold their 4 (one in each constituency) although the Dublin seat may be under a slight threat.
FF should also be able to hold their 3 and could challenge for one in Dublin where they currently have no MEP and on a very good day, for a second in Munster.
Labour are in serious trouble. The seats in East (Childers) and South loo to be gone and even in Dublin they could lose out to a swing to SF.
SP With Higgins not standing as his protege having a low profile, this seat is in serious trouble and may be gone completely if the ULA run a candidate.
Ind : Harkin is most likely to hold in North West.

The big winners are likely to be SF. They should take a seat in Dublin at the expense of Labour or SP. They should take Labour's seats in South and East. The only major challenge to them is in North West, where they are strong but will be fighting strong traditional votes for FF and FG and Harkin won't go down without a major fight.
To be honest, it is all about money. The more money a party has, the more interviews they get from the compromised media.

A key factor in the next MEP elections will be the rolling out of the old guard who have had their snouts in the trough for a generation.

I was shocked that FF got any seats last time. There is a generational problem with two of the MEPs. They are simply past it.

Crowley is a dodgy creep who has outlasted the public realisation that FF are useless at defending the national interest. I can't believe that there are still people in Munster who vote for him.

I hope that there is wholescale change across the board. In particular, the Looper Party need a shock result in Dublin, where they have got very arrogant, as evidenced by the attitude of Frank Ross to the appointment of "we need to talk about Kevin" to the EU Court of Auditors, where he will presumably give everything the OK, just like he did with the Irish banks before they collapsed.

Time for change.

Though there still is a desperate shortage of options available. The options for MEP elections are often mediocre at best. In Dublin that can be changed to diabolically dreadful.

The only MEPs I can see holding their seats are Paul Murphy, Nessa Childers (who is not afraid of the Stickie leadership) and Mairead McGuinness.
 

Analyzer

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If the Presidential Election proved anything, it is that only the Dublin Euro constituency (with it's crap alternatives) could elect Gay Mitchel.
 

Sierra

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As a matter of interest, what do you know about SFs level of organisation?
I have an interest in knowing the organisational capabilities of all political parties, its what I do.

The only MEPs I can see holding their seats are Paul Murphy, Nessa Childers (who is not afraid of the Stickie leadership) and Mairead McGuinness.
I'm still not entirely sure about Murphy. He hasn't been tested in an actual election yet.
 
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edwin

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Feb 5, 2009
Messages
6,139
Isn't there talk of us losing another seat to allow for the entry of Croation MEPs (there is a maximum limit of MEPs so seats must be lost to give to Croatia)? This would make the constituencies even more odd as with 11 seats we'd likely to have to go to two 4 seaters and a 3 seater. Perhaps a 3 seat Greater Dublin Area and North and South consituencies? All bets are off with that confusing arrangement.
 

darach

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Nov 13, 2010
Messages
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Despite her consistent criticism of her own party in Government, I wouldn't rule out Nessa Childers losing her seat. FF will most likely have new candidates in each Euro constituency.
 

Dame_Enda

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Dec 14, 2011
Messages
52,093
Euro elections are strongly personal in nature, so SF needs to find the right candidate. Not having MLM on the ballot (presumably) will be a problem. Who else is there to step into the breach?

Can Toireasa Ferris be persuaded in Southwest? She came within a whisker last time. Larry O'Toole came close in Dub NE in the GE would he run?

I am against SF on domestic issues (except UI) but will probably vote for them in Euros because of a shared scepticism about the direction of Europe. I am in East where a pickup is probably not likely.
 
Last edited:

Keith-M

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www.allkindsofeverything.ie
Isn't there talk of us losing another seat to allow for the entry of Croation MEPs (there is a maximum limit of MEPs so seats must be lost to give to Croatia)? This would make the constituencies even more odd as with 11 seats we'd likely to have to go to two 4 seaters and a 3 seater. Perhaps a 3 seat Greater Dublin Area and North and South consituencies? All bets are off with that confusing arrangement.
Yes, you're right, but I'm not sure that that change has been adopted yet. 11 creates a whole new ball game and a likely loss for FG.
 

darach

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Joined
Nov 13, 2010
Messages
1,644
The only MEPs I can see holding their seats are Paul Murphy, Nessa Childers (who is not afraid of the Stickie leadership) and Mairead McGuinness.
I completely disagree with the exception of McGuinness. Paul Murphy before taking up Joe Higgins' job never even held a council seat. His only media mentions are generally when he's arrested. Higgins' stock has plummeted in comparison to the last time he was in the Dáil and even since 2009 with the Lisbon referendum. I knew plenty of middle to upper class people who voted for him purely on the basis of enjoying his media performances whereas now he's quite an irrelevant figure overshadowed by the more dominant figures in the independent and technical group.

As for Childers, she may be well known as a Gilmore critic but I'm not sure that's enough to save her seat. She doesn't even live in Leinster and her presence in the constituency is not that strong. 1 FF, 1 FG & then a dog fight for the third seat.
 

Tough Paddy

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11,505
My record on predicting elections in this country is in the Top 10% (and 5% in 2007). How's yours?
From the very outset, I always predicted Enda Kenny would ultimately make the transition to becoming Taoiseach and and all the while everybody (largely the FF flag waving media) were writing him off. I also predicted at the outset that Kenny would defeat Bruton in the heave! I also predicted that Gay Mitchell would win the FG nomination and in spite of much of the FG hierarchy trying to block it.

So when it comes to predicting things of a political nature, I do fine ta very much! As for your own claims to be in the top 10% of mystic megs in the country, one can only laugh! :lol:
 

Plebian

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Feb 20, 2011
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The only problem at the moment is that SF don't have the organisation in many areas as of yet to translate the increase in poll support into actual votes, which gives the incumbent parties an advantage.

In saying that I can see them overtaking Labour in the Euro's. That's not surprising though, as SF will replace the Labour party in Irish politics.
I'm not so sure about that, Labour are holding their core 10% and SF despite this are still emerging as longterm threats to FF and FG at the same time. Holding both FF and FG in the 20s% and threatening to turn the 2 1/2 party system into a multiparty system.
 
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