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Should Cowen Call a Snap Election?


LeDroit

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FG are in meltdown, at each others throats and utterly divided, (perhaps even by 50:50). They look utterly unsuitable for govt to the electorate right at this minute. Labour, regardless of poll numbers, don't have enough geographical spread, don't have enough candidates and have no declared policies.

Is now not the perfect time for Cowen to step up, come across as the solid Statesman, put a plan for recovery to the people and call a snap election?

If he leaves it to 2012 the economy may recover a little but certainly not dramatically. FG and Labour will be in stronger positions in 18 months. If Cowen called it immediately after today's confidence vote is won, the election would be in three weeks. FG and Labour aren't ready.

Cowen's best shot is right now.
 


johnfás

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It is his best shot... but he still won't because it is still inevitable that they will lose power. They would have a much better showing than they otherwise might though.
 

jacko

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to prove that he's even more stupid than Enda

what was that FF poll rating again?


17%
 

mixer73

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I think it would be the stroke of the century.
 

tiny tim

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FG are in meltdown, at each others throats and utterly divided, (perhaps even by 50:50). They look utterly unsuitable for govt to the electorate right at this minute. Labour, regardless of poll numbers, don't have enough geographical spread, don't have enough candidates and have no declared policies.

Is now not the perfect time for Cowen to step up, come across as the solid Statesman, put a plan for recovery to the people and call a snap election?

If he leaves it to 2012 the economy may recover a little but certainly not dramatically. FG and Labour will be in stronger positions in 18 months. If Cowen called it immediately after today's confidence vote is won, the election would be in three weeks. FG and Labour aren't ready.

Cowen's best shot is right now.
No matter who leads FG the people are BAYING for an election. Bring it on. FG will have a leader to lead the country out of this awful mess.
 
T

The_Big_Fellow

If they were a little higher then it would be an ideal time, I would say though that it might be worth holding on after the 17% rating. Given the bruton debacle, they can only go up. I think that the Govt. must have significantly solidified over the last 3 days
 

Sync

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No. Wait until 2012 and hope the economy has picked up. They're not going to drop lower in the interim period, there's no benefit to going now.
 

LeDroit

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to prove that he's even more stupid than Enda
what was that FF poll rating again?
17%
A week is a long time in politics. Alots happened in a weekend! Cowen and FF look strong and united. FG don't. People won't be able to vote for Labour candidates in alot of constituencies even if they wanted to.
 

Congalltee

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The unadjusted figure in the polls would be 21%.
That would mean loss of 25-40 seats.
The only reason to do so is that the next governement would be short lived and FF + Labour would do the next one.

There are two things which unite all Fine Gaelers - FF and SF. An election would hve the same effect.

2012 election.
 

Flynnster

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Yes I think he should. There is unlikely to be a better time for Fianna Fail to go to the country than at this moment. If he waits for Labour to get viable candidates in all areas he will be in big trouble in my opinion. Fine Gael might still pose a threat but with no leader in place its as good a time as any.
 

Rebel_Yell

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FG are in meltdown, at each others throats and utterly divided, (perhaps even by 50:50). They look utterly unsuitable for govt to the electorate right at this minute. Labour, regardless of poll numbers, don't have enough geographical spread, don't have enough candidates and have no declared policies.

Is now not the perfect time for Cowen to step up, come across as the solid Statesman, put a plan for recovery to the people and call a snap election?

If he leaves it to 2012 the economy may recover a little but certainly not dramatically. FG and Labour will be in stronger positions in 18 months. If Cowen called it immediately after today's confidence vote is won, the election would be in three weeks. FG and Labour aren't ready.

Cowen's best shot is right now.

Well at least it would be a laugh.

Wouldn't be good for the state though.

Imagine the Economist Article

Ireland faces a decision between the most unpopular government in the state's history (and one which a majority of the population believe caused the crisis the nation now faces), a left wing party that seems incapable of confronting any of the special interests to which it has been traditional allied, and a main opposition party that appears to be stagnating in the polls and has now turned on its own leader.

Would you invest?

Cowen cannot seek electoral salvation. At least if he stays put and prays that the pieces start to come back together he can hope for some glimmer of thanks from history (albeit heavily footnoted with commentary about his stewardship of the Department of Finance).
 

LeDroit

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I think FF would get 30% minimum. The Greens would keep their support base and get FF transfers. With the Greens, Indos and SF I think they could do it. Labour don't have enough candidates.
 

yalloy

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Nov 22, 2009
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2011 at the earliest. Ireland is expected to grow 3 % next year. Now whether it does or not is another question but FF will hold off on the basis of this.

The irish times poll multiplication of support based off models when FF core support was 35% is a joke. Still the very best FF could hope for there vote to rise to the high 20s over a GE campaign with no transfers.
 

Ulster-Lad

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What would happen if the Independents won it?
 

Rocky

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Yes go for it.
 

Ciarán Mac Mathghamhna

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As I said on another thread, I think this FG fiasco means that the calling of the election may be sooner, though not immediately. It'd be strange of FF not to try to take advantage of the mess, even though Labour are gaining.

If Cowen times this right, which he more than likely will, consider what the fallout would be if each major party ended up around the same number of seats? (which I think is looking quite likely)

That is:
FF 50-odd (losing nearly 30 seats, quite likely)
FG 50-odd (no change, an unlikely scenario until this week)
Labour 50-odd (massive gain, at the expense of FF, again unlikely until this week)

How do you like those apples?
 

LeDroit

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But right now Labour can't capitalise. They physically can't get 50 viable candidates into the Dail. So even if FF drop, Labour can't capitalise on their losses and FG won't because they're in meltdown. Now is the perfect time for Cowen. SF will pick up the slack in lost FF seats. Max 10-12.
 

smitchy2

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A week is a long time in politics. Alots happened in a weekend! Cowen and FF look strong and united. FG don't. People won't be able to vote for Labour candidates in alot of constituencies even if they wanted to.
That is the funniest. FF look strong and united!

The only reason why they don’t have a leadership contest is that no one wants to take on Cowens mess until he loses the next election.

Strong and united! Hilarious.
 

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