Should nats vote SDLP or Alliance in the coming UK general election?

raetsel

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 5, 2017
Messages
8,799
. Given your extreme distaste of armed strugge I'm can't fully appreciate why would wish to join the South forged by a ruthless gunman such as Collins.
The first genesis of the IRA committed far fewer atrocities that the PIRA, and unlike the latter enjoyed widespread support among the Irish people for a start. But what happened 100 years ago is not relevant.

Your masters in Westminister I now believe let their spooks and sociopath Sandhurst patriots used the North as a rarified training ground. Bloody expendable paddies and this power was exhilerating, addictive and credit to Major and Blair for removing them.
:ROFLMAO:
They are not my 'masters' any more than Fine Gael are your 'masters'. There is some truth in the suggestion that the British army used the Troubles as a learning exercise for potential future counter-insurgency operations in Britain, but it is grossly exaggerated.
 


Itsalaugh

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 1, 2013
Messages
3,371
The first genesis of the IRA committed far fewer atrocities that the PIRA, and unlike the latter enjoyed widespread support among the Irish people for a start. But what happened 100 years ago is not relevant.


:ROFLMAO:
They are not my 'masters' any more than Fine Gael are your 'masters'. There is some truth in the suggestion that the British army used the Troubles as a learning exercise for potential future counter-insurgency operations in Britain, but it is grossly exaggerated.
I'm not fighting the legacy wars again but I really think you should reread some of the old threads on collusion and the dirty war. The now deceased poster Irish Pancake from the midlands and eagle before she lost it after taking the neocon/neoliberal schilling to propagate russiagate along with a dozen other posters really brought the extent of Brit manipulation of the conflict on the mammoth thread that followed when rte finally decided to give exposure to collusion with their belated doc on loughinisland. All other p.ie luminaries who tried to rubbish the wholesale collusion narrative retreated in shame pretty quickly.

I'd actually give a tactical vote to alliance or even vote sdlp at the moment but I still feel some sympathy for dissoes who really are no different to 1980s republicans. I argue with them that its completely futile, some of your ilk are agent provocateurs for the imperialists etc, who know the best chance of holding their irish colony is bringing conflict home. That i think is the best approach to diminish their desirs to emulate the patriotic tradition of armed insurrection against the foreign crown.
 
Last edited:

raetsel

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 5, 2017
Messages
8,799
I'm not fighting the legacy wars again but I really think you should reread some of the old threads on collusion and the dirty war. The now deceased poster Irish Pancake from the midlands and eagle before she lost it after taking the neocon/neoliberal schilling to propagate russiagate along with a dozen other posters really brought the extent of Brit manipulation of the conflict on the mammoth thread that followed when rte finally decided to give exposure to collusion with their belated doc on loughinisland. All other p.ie luminaries who tried to rubbish the wholesale collusion narrative retreated in shame pretty quickly.

I'd actually give a tactical vote to alliance or even vote sdlp at the moment but I still feel some sympathy for dissoes who really are no different to 1980s republicans. I argue with them that its completely futile, some of your ilk are agent provocateurs for the imperialists etc, who know the best chance of holding their irish colony is bringing conflict home. That i think is the best approach to diminish their desirs to emulate the patriotic tradition of armed insurrection against the foreign crown.
Of course there was collusion, and it was widespread but that's another debate.
I have no sympathy or respect. for the dissidents. They are boneheaded criminal clowns. The Irish people voted for the GFA overwhelmingly, and it is the best path towards a united Ireland.
I have no idea what the sentence in bold means.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
54,001
In constituencies where Nationalists are in single digits and theres no hope of winning a seat, they should vote for the strongest Remain candidate. In East Belfast that means Alliance and in North Down it means Sylvia Hermon if she's running.
 

Glaucon

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 13, 2012
Messages
8,418
In constituencies where Nationalists are in single digits and theres no hope of winning a seat, they should vote for the strongest Remain candidate. In East Belfast that means Alliance and in North Down it means Sylvia Hermon if she's running.
Most Nationalists in East Belfast vote Alliance already. I don't know what the behaviour is in North Down however.
 

Observer B

Member
Joined
Sep 13, 2019
Messages
96
Based on last GE results there is 1 DUP seat that is there for the taking by a nationalist pact i.e. South Belfast. (If SF stood aside for SDLP)

1 Further seat, North Belfast, would also be very close if there was a nationalist pact (If SDLP stood aside for SF - only about 30 odd votes separated nationalists and Unionists last time). Here's somewhere that the demographic shift would make a difference.

Re Fermanagh/South Tyrone, a unionist will find it very difficult to ever win that seat again.

However, I believe the boundaries are changing before the next election and there will be 1 less seat in NI. So not a clue how this would affect things.
 

raetsel

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 5, 2017
Messages
8,799
Based on last GE results there is 1 DUP seat that is there for the taking by a nationalist pact i.e. South Belfast. (If SF stood aside for SDLP)

1 Further seat, North Belfast, would also be very close if there was a nationalist pact (If SDLP stood aside for SF - only about 30 odd votes separated nationalists and Unionists last time). Here's somewhere that the demographic shift would make a difference.

Re Fermanagh/South Tyrone, a unionist will find it very difficult to ever win that seat again.

However, I believe the boundaries are changing before the next election and there will be 1 less seat in NI. So not a clue how this would affect things.
The boundary changes won't affect any election in the next few months as they haven't been implemented yet as far as I can tell.
You're a bit premature in your assessment of FST. There were less than 900 votes in it, and SF benefited from an anti-Brexit backlash so there were exceptional circumstances. It was their biggest every vote total. I wouldn't assume that all the extra people who voted SF last time have suddenly become unconditional supporters.
 

Observer B

Member
Joined
Sep 13, 2019
Messages
96
You're a bit premature in your assessment of FST. There were less than 900 votes in it, and SF benefited from an anti-Brexit backlash so there were exceptional circumstances. It was their biggest every vote total. I wouldn't assume that all the extra people who voted SF last time have suddenly become unconditional supporters.
Perhaps I am for the long term. In the shorter term Tom Elliot's Brexit stance will come back to haunt him and unless the UUP run a pro remain candidate which probably isn't likely they are unlikely to even come close to winning.
 

raetsel

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 5, 2017
Messages
8,799
Perhaps I am for the long term. In the shorter term Tom Elliot's Brexit stance will come back to haunt him and unless the UUP run a pro remain candidate which probably isn't likely they are unlikely to even come close to winning.
Brexit will count in this election up to a point, I suspect if you got an honest answer from any FST unionist whether their antipathy towards SF or fear of Brexit was greater, most would say Sinn Fein. Hardly surprising as the Enniskillen bomb is still fresh in the memory, and the failure of the then Chairman of Fermanagh District Council, Sinn Fein's Paul Corrigan to condemn the bomb (unsurprisingly) disgusted people. Furthermore demographic change in Fermanagh is slower than probably any other constituency, when you compare the election results from 40/50 years ago to today. Fermanagh loses much of university destined students forever and many of the more enterprising young who end their education earlier also move away.
 

Itsalaugh

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 1, 2013
Messages
3,371
Brexit will count in this election up to a point, I suspect if you got an honest answer from any FST unionist whether their antipathy towards SF or fear of Brexit was greater, most would say Sinn Fein. Hardly surprising as the Enniskillen bomb is still fresh in the memory, and the failure of the then Chairman of Fermanagh District Council, Sinn Fein's Paul Corrigan to condemn the bomb (unsurprisingly) disgusted people. Furthermore demographic change in Fermanagh is slower than probably any other constituency, when you compare the election results from 40/50 years ago to today. Fermanagh loses much of university destined students forever and many of the more enterprising young who end their education earlier also move away.
Coalisland/Torrent with 11k nationalist voters,1.5k unionist was removed from F&ST in 1997 to Mid Ulster. This helped McGuinness defeat McCrea despite a SDLP candidate standing but kept FST more balanced.
 

Glenshane4

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 5, 2012
Messages
9,747
That's a strong statement and I fail to see how this could come to be. Please explain your logic.
Belfast rule would mean Prod rule and Prod rule would mean Prod tyranny. A devolved government for Northern Ireland with so-called guarantees such as a Bill of Rights or built-in power-sharing would mean giving the Prod a sword and the Catholic a shield. If the chap with the sword cuts up rough, the shield would be useful but it is the chap with the sword who has the power. If the removal of Prod privilege requires Prod approval, Prod privilege will continue. After 20 years of power-sharing, French Canadians held 13% of Federal job even though they were 28% of the population.

Since the Good Friday Agreement, there has been no progress in dismantling Prod privilege or in compensating Catholics for wrongs inflicted by Prod governments. There probably never will be.
 

Observer B

Member
Joined
Sep 13, 2019
Messages
96
Belfast rule would mean Prod rule and Prod rule would mean Prod tyranny. A devolved government for Northern Ireland with so-called guarantees such as a Bill of Rights or built-in power-sharing would mean giving the Prod a sword and the Catholic a shield. If the chap with the sword cuts up rough, the shield would be useful but it is the chap with the sword who has the power. If the removal of Prod privilege requires Prod approval, Prod privilege will continue. After 20 years of power-sharing, French Canadians held 13% of Federal job even though they were 28% of the population.
But surely this would only hold up if the demographics didn't change?

Since the Good Friday Agreement, there has been no progress in dismantling Prod privilege or in compensating Catholics for wrongs inflicted by Prod governments. There probably never will be.
Things are changing, quicker than the demographic trend even. Mid 90s I was in UU, about 70% of the students were from a Catholic background (Magee, Coleraine and Jordanstown), apparently Queens was something similar. Someone explained to me that well off Unionists were sending their sons and daughters over to Scotland and England as they were afraid that they would be "influenced by Fenians". The problem was that most of them weren't coming back. A lot of those that did, come back have a different attitude due to the broader outlook they get exposed to.

It has also been shown that school leavers from deprived nationalist areas are far more likely to go to 3rd level (I think it's about 10%/12% which may sound low but when you consider that it's only about 3% in deprived loyalist areas. (I haven't got a reference for this but I could dig one out if I took some time.). All these factors will make a difference going forward. These factors combined with the demographic shift means that unionism has lost it's dominance in NI and it won't be coming back irrespective of what happens with Brexit, Stormont etc. But you are right up to a point, in the early 90s you were twice as likely to be unemployed if you were a Catholic, but things are changing:

 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top