Should Sinn Fein Proceed with a Border Poll - With or Without the Secretary of State's Approval?

Hogsback

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While following the situation in Spain, I've been wondering if SF should consider running a border poll at some point in the future - even if the Secretary of State does not lend their approval.

Of course, the two governments would not acknowledge the validity of the poll - similar to the situation in Spain - but the political impact could still be very real.

I've always thought the biggest downside of the GFA from a Republican perspective was the effective veto the SoS - and therefore the British Government - have on a border poll, but as the only serious 32 county party SF would be well placed to set up and run an effective poll, with or without Irish or British government sanction.

In the coming years it looks increasingly likely that we will see a hard (and extremely damaging) Brexit along with the potential exile of the Tory party for a generation. The political collateral of the DUP will also have been well and truly spent in Westminster in such a scenario.

There may be no more opportune time for serious consideration of the border than we will see in the coming years.

It's pretty much guaranteed that Unionists in the North would boycott such a poll, and FF/FG would also discourage participation by their members, so turnout could be relatively low, but the result would very likely be a large majority in favour in both jurisdictions.

Some questions though.
How would the governments react to the poll?
One would hope that they would have learned from Madrid's horrible handling of their situation that physically disrupting the poll is counterproductive to say the least.
That said, you can never rule out an over-reaction from the British authorities and Unionists on the ground where nationalist activities are concerned.

At the end of the day would there be any benefit to running an unauthorized poll?
As a minimum it would have to increase the pressure on the British to approval a formal poll in the near future, and it would also ask some very hard questions of the main parties in the South - FF in particular, as to how they choose to handle the situation.

If the situation arises where Brexit results in major damage to the UK economy, and a seriously compromised Tory party, I think they should go for it.
 


Roman Emperor

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[/QUOTE]....At the end of the day would there be any benefit to running an unauthorized poll?
As a minimum it would have to increase the pressure on the British to approval a formal poll in the near future, and it would also ask some very hard questions of the main parties in the South - FF in particular, as to how they choose to handle the situation.

If the situation arises where Brexit results in major damage to the UK economy, and a seriously compromised Tory party, I think they should go for it.[/QUOTE]


They could go for it, but in my opinion an unauthorized poll would have about the same validity as an opinion poll.

What do recent opinion polls suggest the outcome might be ?
 

Roman Emperor

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...At the end of the day would there be any benefit to running an unauthorized poll?
As a minimum it would have to increase the pressure on the British to approval a formal poll in the near future, and it would also ask some very hard questions of the main parties in the South - FF in particular, as to how they choose to handle the situation.

If the situation arises where Brexit results in major damage to the UK economy, and a seriously compromised Tory party, I think they should go for it.


They could go for it, but in my opinion an unauthorized poll would have about the same validity as an opinion poll.

What do recent opinion polls suggest the outcome might be ?
 

FOURGREENFIELDS

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NO, at the minute the numbers are not there and ongoing pressure, responsibility and negative fall out should be left with the British. When the numbers ARE favourable then that's the time to strike, SF should be sensible and pick their political battles at THEIR time and choosing.
 

Hogsback

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NO, at the minute the numbers are not there and ongoing pressure, responsibility and negative fall out should be left with the British. When the numbers ARE favourable then that's the time to strike, SF should be sensible and pick their political battles at THEIR time and choosing.
That's my point. I'm not suggesting now - I'm speculating that things could become interesting int he coming years...

In the coming years it looks increasingly likely that we will see a hard (and extremely damaging) Brexit along with the potential exile of the Tory party for a generation. The political collateral of the DUP will also have been well and truly spent in Westminster in such a scenario.

There may be no more opportune time for serious consideration of the border than we will see in the coming years.
....and it won't be a time of their choosing - it will be at a time of the Secretary of State's choosing - as per the GFA.

That's why I'm suggesting they prepare for an unsanctioned poll in the event an opportunity arises.
 

Prof Honeydew

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While following the situation in Spain, I've been wondering if SF should consider running a border poll at some point in the future - even if the Secretary of State does not lend their approval.

Of course, the two governments would not acknowledge the validity of the poll - similar to the situation in Spain - but the political impact could still be very real.

I've always thought the biggest downside of the GFA from a Republican perspective was the effective veto the SoS - and therefore the British Government - have on a border poll, but as the only serious 32 county party SF would be well placed to set up and run an effective poll, with or without Irish or British government sanction.

In the coming years it looks increasingly likely that we will see a hard (and extremely damaging) Brexit along with the potential exile of the Tory party for a generation. The political collateral of the DUP will also have been well and truly spent in Westminster in such a scenario.

There may be no more opportune time for serious consideration of the border than we will see in the coming years.

It's pretty much guaranteed that Unionists in the North would boycott such a poll, and FF/FG would also discourage participation by their members, so turnout could be relatively low, but the result would very likely be a large majority in favour in both jurisdictions.

Some questions though.
How would the governments react to the poll?
One would hope that they would have learned from Madrid's horrible handling of their situation that physically disrupting the poll is counterproductive to say the least.
That said, you can never rule out an over-reaction from the British authorities and Unionists on the ground where nationalist activities are concerned.

At the end of the day would there be any benefit to running an unauthorized poll?
As a minimum it would have to increase the pressure on the British to approval a formal poll in the near future, and it would also ask some very hard questions of the main parties in the South - FF in particular, as to how they choose to handle the situation.

If the situation arises where Brexit results in major damage to the UK economy, and a seriously compromised Tory party, I think they should go for it.
Worth floating the idea. Varadkar and Martin are shìtting themselves at the moment as the EU is telling them they've a veto on any post-Brexit agreement with the Brits if it includes a hard customs border between both parts of a divided Ireland. Like Lynch and Cosgrave, those stooges of a previous generation who turned on their own rather than defend the oppressed Nationalists of the Six Counties, they've neither the guts nor the belief in the Irish nation to take the steps real leaders that preceded them took to advance the Peace Process. It mightn't achieve any short-term goal but maybe a unilateral plebiscite on both sides of the Border would expose the winsome twosome for the mediocrities they are.
 

NYCKY

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While following the situation in Spain, I've been wondering if SF should consider running a border poll at some point in the future - even if the Secretary of State does not lend their approval.

Of course, the two governments would not acknowledge the validity of the poll - similar to the situation in Spain - but the political impact could still be very real.

I've always thought the biggest downside of the GFA from a Republican perspective was the effective veto the SoS - and therefore the British Government - have on a border poll, but as the only serious 32 county party SF would be well placed to set up and run an effective poll, with or without Irish or British government sanction.

In the coming years it looks increasingly likely that we will see a hard (and extremely damaging) Brexit along with the potential exile of the Tory party for a generation. The political collateral of the DUP will also have been well and truly spent in Westminster in such a scenario.

There may be no more opportune time for serious consideration of the border than we will see in the coming years.

It's pretty much guaranteed that Unionists in the North would boycott such a poll, and FF/FG would also discourage participation by their members, so turnout could be relatively low, but the result would very likely be a large majority in favour in both jurisdictions.

Some questions though.
How would the governments react to the poll?
One would hope that they would have learned from Madrid's horrible handling of their situation that physically disrupting the poll is counterproductive to say the least.
That said, you can never rule out an over-reaction from the British authorities and Unionists on the ground where nationalist activities are concerned.

At the end of the day would there be any benefit to running an unauthorized poll?
As a minimum it would have to increase the pressure on the British to approval a formal poll in the near future, and it would also ask some very hard questions of the main parties in the South - FF in particular, as to how they choose to handle the situation.

If the situation arises where Brexit results in major damage to the UK economy, and a seriously compromised Tory party, I think they should go for it.
Logistically, how do you think Sinn Fein could run the poll by themselves? without government involvement, even the Stormont administration which last time I checked wasn't even up and running itself.

and what are these two jurisdictions that you speak of? How would Sinn Fein organize a poll in the South without government involvement?
 

between the bridges

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Yes

















Moi's in need of a good laff...
 

Strawberry

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SF aren't in a position to organise a border poll at the moment. However, if they ever find themselves in a position where they are the largest party in the North and the SoS refuses a border poll, they should indeed follow Catalonia's example and hold one anyway.
 

Sync

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What would they ask? It can’t be “do you want to join ROI?” Because we don’t want them and SF can’t deliver it, that would just be an expensive meaningless, unscientific opinion poll. Them paying RedC would have more merit.

If it’s “do you want to be an independent country outside the UK and EU” then....best of luck. Sure. They’ve no mandate (unlike the Scottish and Catalans) to do that, no polling info to support it and no positive experience in govt to point to so as to offer hope that they could make it work.

But sure, why not, if 51 of the adult population go for it on an 80% turnout in nevernverland then sure. It’s none of our business, people can do whatever stupid thing they want to do.

It would of course undo all of SF’s efforts in southern politics, destroy power sharing, and amount to them abandoning the GFA which may have implications for the killers in their ranks walking around because they signed up to the GFA.
 

murf13

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What would they ask? It can’t be “do you want to join ROI?” Because we don’t want them and SF can’t deliver it, that would just be an expensive meaningless, unscientific opinion poll. Them paying RedC would have more merit.

If it’s “do you want to be an independent country outside the UK and EU” then....best of luck. Sure. They’ve no mandate (unlike the Scottish and Catalans) to do that, no polling info to support it and no positive experience in govt to point to so as to offer hope that they could make it work.

But sure, why not, if 51 of the adult population go for it on an 80% turnout in nevernverland then sure.it's none of our business , people can do whatever stupid thing they want to do.

It would of course undo all of SF’s efforts in southern politics, destroy power sharing, and amount to them abandoning the GFA which may have implications for the killers in their ranks walking around because they signed up to the GFA.
What do you mean by "it's none of our business" ?

Unless you've been living under a rock and smoking some mighty fine mind altering shît for the last 800 plus years then you'll know that it is our business.

You may not want to accept the facts but regardless, it is "our business " and the sooner we address it the better for communities both north and south of that most unnatural of borders.
 

Sync

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The fact is that ireland has signed up to the GFA. It was massively endorsed by the people. It still is.

Some party who’s not in power in the North or the Republic and has no one elected on the basis of these counties seceding from the UK holding a little poll on something they can’t deliver on has as much merit as the monster raving looney party holding a vote in Manchester as to whether they should leave and join Turkey.

The Reuplic is not going to screw around with the GFA and the voters won’t thank anyone that does.
 

RodShaft

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While following the situation in Spain, I've been wondering if SF should consider running a border poll at some point in the future - even if the Secretary of State does not lend their approval.

Of course, the two governments would not acknowledge the validity of the poll - similar to the situation in Spain - but the political impact could still be very real.

I've always thought the biggest downside of the GFA from a Republican perspective was the effective veto the SoS - and therefore the British Government - have on a border poll, but as the only serious 32 county party SF would be well placed to set up and run an effective poll, with or without Irish or British government sanction.

In the coming years it looks increasingly likely that we will see a hard (and extremely damaging) Brexit along with the potential exile of the Tory party for a generation. The political collateral of the DUP will also have been well and truly spent in Westminster in such a scenario.

There may be no more opportune time for serious consideration of the border than we will see in the coming years.

It's pretty much guaranteed that Unionists in the North would boycott such a poll, and FF/FG would also discourage participation by their members, so turnout could be relatively low, but the result would very likely be a large majority in favour in both jurisdictions.

Some questions though.
How would the governments react to the poll?
One would hope that they would have learned from Madrid's horrible handling of their situation that physically disrupting the poll is counterproductive to say the least.
That said, you can never rule out an over-reaction from the British authorities and Unionists on the ground where nationalist activities are concerned.

At the end of the day would there be any benefit to running an unauthorized poll?
As a minimum it would have to increase the pressure on the British to approval a formal poll in the near future, and it would also ask some very hard questions of the main parties in the South - FF in particular, as to how they choose to handle the situation.

If the situation arises where Brexit results in major damage to the UK economy, and a seriously compromised Tory party, I think they should go for it.
Don't asdume the SoS won't call a poll. The British are far more wedded to Scotland and they agreed a poll there.
 

HarshBuzz

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I misread 'Poll' as 'Wall' in the OP title

And it still had the same element of sanity. :D
 

RodShaft

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What do you mean by "it's none of our business" ?

Unless you've been living under a rock and smoking some mighty fine mind altering shît for the last 800 plus years then you'll know that it is our business.

You may not want to accept the facts but regardless, it is "our business " and the sooner we address it the better for communities both north and south of that most unnatural of borders.
No survey has ever found a majority of the ROI opposed to unity.

The State was founded on that basis. The unity sentiment is likely to grow in any campaign not shrink.
 

the secretary

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SF could never run a poll because they haven't got the proper organisation to run one and they wouldn't have the cash to fund one.
Any poll such as the one suggested would stoke the embers of sectarianism in NI likely leaving the places battle ground for a few days.
 

HarshBuzz

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No survey has ever found a majority of the ROI opposed to unity.

The State was founded on that basis. The unity sentiment is likely to grow in any campaign not shrink.
I don't know Rod. The 'who's going to pay for this?' factor would be high.
 

Cruimh

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SF could never run a poll because they haven't got the proper organisation to run one and they wouldn't have the cash to fund one.
Any poll such as the one suggested would stoke the embers of sectarianism in NI likely leaving the places battle ground for a few days.
Would Sinn Féin be dumb enough to call their own Bluff?

Just remember - David Trimble wanted a border poll in NI to lay this to bed for 25 years - and while SF initially said yes, for PR, they soon started to block it. Because they knew it would be embarrassing for them

And the press would have a field day with turn outs, voting irregularities and intimidation.
 


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