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Sinn Fein seats at the next General Election


cogol

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Apr 1, 2010
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314
Let's talk realistically. Ó Snodaigh, Ferris, Ó Caoláin are safe. Can Sharkey take Arthur Morgans seat?
What about Dessie Ellis in Dublin North-West? Obviously Mar Lou's chances are being discussed in another thread. What about Maurice Quinlivan in the newly formed Limerick City constituency?
Sean Crowe and Eoin O'Broin are definitely putting good ground work in, but will it be enough to sway voters?
 

Glucose

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Mar 31, 2010
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851
Quite possibly only 1(Cavan/Monaghan)

I think we are heading into a 3 party race. The other smaller parties could get squeezed
 

cogol

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Apr 1, 2010
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314
Quite possibly only 1(Cavan/Monaghan)

I think we are heading into a 3 party race. The other smaller parties could get squeezed
I don't think Sinn Fein voters will buy into the whole 3 party race thing. I can't see someone in Ballyfermot saying 'Well, I normally vote Aengus, but I want Fianna Fail out, so Gay Mitchell is getting my vote this time'.
 

Kerrygold

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Jan 31, 2005
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Ferris and Ó Snodaigh are far from safe. Fall into that trap and you'll soon regret it.

I remember Sean Crowe being safe.

I would say Cavan/Monaghan and Louth are safe.

Martin and Aenghus will both be in a battle. Martin should pull through and I'm less sure about Aenghus.

Pearse will win a seat in Donegal and Padraig should do it too.

In Dublin things are harder to predict. The last general and local elections were disastrous there and its hard to see that being turned around in such a short period of time. Sean is in with a good chance and Mary Lou may surprise people. To her credit she has stuck with it and has been working very hard on the ground. Dessie Ellis is a great worker, but I think his time may have passed. I could be and hope I'm wrong. If there is a squeeze it will be most felt in Dublin, IMHO.

Outside chance in Cork NC.
 

SinnShane

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Feb 22, 2010
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Depends which poll you believe. In theory (given the 3% margin of error) SF could be on 1%, 13% or anywhere in between! Though the party's core vote (probably around 6-7%) would hopefully see us hold what we have and maybe gain in the Donegal’s and possibly one of the Dublin’s, a small groundswell to 10 or 11% could rake in 11 or 12 seats. You’re talking narrow margins and as the ice begins to break on Gutless Gilmore it is imperative that we're under it!
 

Mary Frances

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May 23, 2007
Messages
97
I'd say Sinn Fein have peaked in the South.

They lack credibility on economic issues. Will be doing well to hold what they have.

They need someone other than Adams for TV appearances and debates in the run-up to the General Election.

Adams is brilliant when talking about the Peace Process but the only issue in the election will be the economy and he comes across even worse than Enda Kenny on that issue and that's saying something.
 

Keith-M

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Let's talk realistically. Ó Snodaigh, Ferris, Ó Caoláin are safe.
There's an oxymoron straight away.

Ó Snodaigh and Ferris and in serious trouble. In DSC, there will be a very fractured left vote and AOS barely made it the last time. SF could lose votes to both Labour and PBP, SF will be slugging it out for the last seat.

Ferris (if he stands) is in equally big trouble. The impacts of the boundary changes and the Gilmore Gale are hard to predict here. There's a safe FG seat, but then it's any two from three from FF, Labour and SF. I'm not calling this until the candidates are known.

The Louth seat is very shakey. There's a certain seat for FF and FG, then it's two from FG, FF, Labour and SF. I'd make SF's chances around 50%.

Potential gains?
Obviously two potential gains in Donegal, but again McDaid's intentions will be key. Dublin South West is a certain FF loss, but I think Labour are more likely to take two than SF to take one. I don't see a gain in DC for reasons I've stated on the constituency thread.

After that it's hard to see anything. DNE and DNW were more winnable in 2007 than they are now and any Cork gains are likely to go to Labour.

If I was to call a number right now, I'd go with 5.
 
Last edited:

cogol

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Apr 1, 2010
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314
I'd say Sinn Fein have peaked in the South.

They lack credibility on economic issues. Will be doing well to hold what they have.
They only lack credibility if you're looking at it from a greedy profit driven capitalist pig point of view. oink oink :)
 

locke

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May 2, 2007
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3,092
I actually think Ó Snodaigh will lose his seat.

But SF should still come back with increased numbers. They should take a seat in both Donegal constituencies. And from the rest of the contenders (Dublin NW, Dublin SW, Cork NC, Meath W, Cavan-Monaghan 2nd) they should take one or two.
 

QuizMaster

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5 sounds about right to me.
They have 4 now.
Snoddy out, A.N. Other out.
2 Donegal gains, 1 other gain makes 5.

One scenario is that they will be left with only border seats.
 
R

RepublicanSocialist1798

Worst case scenario two. Best case would be anything over twelve. At the moment it's probably seven or maybe eight.
 

Rex Ryan

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Aug 31, 2009
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Quinlivan won't make it in Limerick. He is their only Councillor out of 17 seats and got only half the votes of the poll topper (888 v 1533). The whole Willie O'Dea thing will get him a few extra votes and might have made a difference but the squeeze in the constituency from a reduced five to four seats with Labour pushing for two makes it impossible for him.
 

Anorakphobia

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Apr 13, 2007
Messages
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It is inconceivable if there is a surge to the left that SF will not benefit.

I think 8 minimum with 10-13 possible on a big surge to Labour day.
 

QuizMaster

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...Obviously two potential gains in Donegal, but again McDaid's intentions will be key...
I don't think McDaid's intentions make any difference. P MacLochlainn should gain easily because:
(1) FF will not be doubling up on seats anywhere, except possibly Laois/Offaly
(2) The Inishowen factor. Last time they were split between MacLochlainn and Keaveney and ended up with nothing. Since then, not only is the FF logo a millstone around Keaveney's neck, but she has lost a good deal of credibility in her own right. Inishowen will plump for the percieved winner, and this time it's MacLochlainn.
(3) P is Sinn Fein lite, and as such is palatable to people who wouldn't normally touch them.
 

williewatch

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Sep 30, 2009
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I think SF have achieved all they are going to achieve in the South at this stage of their development.

They will now stagnate (at best) in the south until they have a leadership change & some fresh ideas. Adams & Co look worn out and have have been shown to be out of touch with the Southern electorate.
 

Keith-M

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I don't think McDaid's intentions make any difference. P MacLochlainn should gain easily because:
(1) FF will not be doubling up on seats anywhere, except possibly Laois/Offaly
(2) The Inishowen factor. Last time they were split between MacLochlainn and Keaveney and ended up with nothing. Since then, not only is the FF logo a millstone around Keaveney's neck, but she has lost a good deal of credibility in her own right. Inishowen will plump for the percieved winner, and this time it's MacLochlainn.
(3) P is Sinn Fein lite, and as such is palatable to people who wouldn't normally touch them.
I think McDaid's intentions are still key. He could run as FF, run as an Indo or not run. If he doesn't run then I suspect FF will only run two, Blaney and Keaveney. That would allow Keaveney to have a notionally larger catchment area, and still be in with a chance of a second seat. Donegal doesn't tend to go with national trends. Labour won't be in with a shout here.

I still expect SF to pick up two seats, but they are far from certain.
 

Kerrygold

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Ferris (if he stands) is in equally big trouble. The impacts of the boundary changes and the Gilmore Gale are hard to predict here. There's a safe FG seat, but then it's any two from three from FF, Labour and SF. I'm not calling this until the candidates are known.
The candidates are pretty much known. Deenihan, Ferris, McEllistrim, Spring. It looks like FF will run a single candidate strategy. FG may run someone from West Limerick, but not sure that Deenihan would be too pleased with that.

For me, if the Labour surge comes to pass, the final seat will be between Ferris and Mac.

The Louth seat is very shakey. There's a certain seat for FF and FG, then it's two from FG, FF, Labour and SF. I'd make SF's chances around 50%.
I would have thought this was a banker for the party, despite it being reduced to a 4 seater.
 

QuizMaster

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It is inconceivable if there is a surge to the left that SF will not benefit.

I think 8 minimum with 10-13 possible on a big surge to Labour day.
No, I'd say the opposite.
A swing to Labour will help Labour, straight and simple. It's not a swing to the left, it's a desperate search for someone who can be trusted with running the country. The only way the Labour swing will materialise is if Labour manage to sell themselves as smart, responsible, level-headed people. If this happens, SF will be hurt, not helped.
 

Kerrygold

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No, I'd say the opposite.
A swing to Labour will help Labour, straight and simple. It's not a swing to the left, it's a desperate search for someone who can be trusted with running the country. The only way the Labour swing will materialise is if Labour manage to sell themselves as smart, responsible, level-headed people. If this happens, SF will be hurt, not helped.
I'd agree with that.
 

LgCastell

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Apr 28, 2010
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whats the situation with arthur morgan is he running next time out in louth? if he does i would say he will hold it as there is an extra seat there if morgan doesnt run i'm not too sure what his replacement will be like

who is labours candidate in louth?

Donegal would seem to be on track for 2 SF's while i think AO'D will struggle to hold on to his seat its a very competitive area and the labour rise may squeeze him out...

the rest of dublin i'm not too sure theres talk of MLM crowe etc while they'll run good races they are now competing with a much much stronger labour in dublin which will again squeeze them out

Ferris be it T or M should return in Kerry

I really think SF are missing an opportunity to change tack and become a much more centre left viable alternative proposing viable economic and constructive ideas that could attract double diget numbers and provide an actual coalition partnership for government ...

if SF want to acheive unity its there best alternative they're on track to be largest party in north and if they were in gov in south they could really start at acheiving something

many now dont see them as the pol wing of the ira and if they were to get some new faces in especially in the south with a southern leader and policy formation they'd be an attractive gov partner
 
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