Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election

Prof Honeydew

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5,180
Last week's by-election defeat in Richmond Park produced a dose of the wobbles in Britain's Tory government where sniping between Brexit and Remain factions as well as ego spats between prominent Cabinet members raised questions about where Prime Minister May is leading her party.

This week, it's the turn of Sleaford and North Hykeham, another rock solid Tory seat in 2015 but this rural Lincolnshire constituency is at the opposite end of the spectrum from wealthy pro-Europe West London. It consists mostly of the North Kesteven district in the most pro-Brexit county in England and voted 62.3% Leave in the Brexit referendum.

Apart from 2010 when they finished a distant second to the Tories in most constituencies, the Lib Dems have never figured in Lincolnshire. Labour were traditionally the second party, finishing 10-20% behind the Tories in all of the seats except Lincoln City which has backed the winning party in every election since 1974. In 2015, UKIP were runners-up in most constituencies. However, Sleaford and North Hykeham voted Conservative 56%, Labour 17%, UKIP 16% and Lib Dems 6% in 2015.

On paper, this would be one of the few constituencies like Witney that should return a Government MP at a by-election. However, UKIP rather than the Lib Dems are in a better position to benefit from an anti-Government protest and the Tory position isn't helped by their MP resigning for what appears to be an unconvincing reason.

There are a few possible factors that may have an influence. The Lib Dems may decide to back Labour to keep UKIP out in return for Labour not seriously contesting Richmond Park. UKIP's internal difficulties have affected their ability to put together a coherent campaign. The Tories may be able to split the opposition between UKIP on the one side and either Laour or Lib Dems on the other.

Sleaford and North Hykeham will be a more significant gauge of current English opinion than Richmond Park. The Tories are 1/10 with the bookies to hold on but, should their margin of victory in this heartland seat be greatly reduced (Margaret Thatcher came from down the road in Grantham), it will undermine the authority of May's government and the PM's confidence to come to any decision at all regarding a coherent Brexit strategy.

The other main interest interest is whether UKIP or the Remainers come second and what that effect will be on the Tory resolve to sort out its Brexit mess. With a new leader and an articulate county councillor standing for them in a favourable constituency, UKIP are expected to fill the runners-up spot and it will be a serious setback if they don't
 


Lumpy Talbot

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Jun 30, 2015
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No
For all the candidatez... the Sleaford Mods and 'Jobseeker'.

https://youtu.be/Udp6fZ9vWCI

(So Mr. Williamson, what have you done to find gainful employment since your last signing on date?)
F*CK ALL!
19.4- top
18.6- middle Rob?
19.2- top
18.4 mate, middle
Jobseeker!
Can of Strongbow, I'm a mess
Desperately clutching onto a leaflet on depression
Supplied to me by the NHS
It's anyone's guess how I got here
Anyone's guess how I'll go
I suck on a roll-up - pull your jeans up
F*ck off, I'm going home
Jobseeker! [x2]
So Mr. Williamson, what have you done in order to find gainful employment
Since your last signing on date?
F*ck all
I've been sat around the house w*nking
And I want to know why you don't serve coffee here
My signing on time is supposed to be ten past eleven
It's now twelve o'clock
And some of you strange bastards need executing
Mr. Williamson your employment history looks quite impressive
I'm looking at three managerial positions you previously held with quite
Reputable companies, isn't this something you'd like to go back to?
Nah, I'd just end up f*ckin' robbing the f*cking place
You've got a till full of 20s staring at you all day
Well I'm hardly going to bank it
I’ve go drugs to take, and a mind to break
Jobseeker!
Can of Strongbow, I'm a mess
Desperately clutching onto a leaflet on depression
Supplied to me by the NHS
It's anyone's guess how I got here
Anyone's guess how I'll go
I suck on a roll-up - pull your jeans up
F*ck off, I'm going home
Jobseeker! [x12]
 
Last edited:

Ardillaun

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Jun 4, 2010
Messages
11,769
Looks safe and that's all the Tories will talk about. FPTP is such a blunt instrument. I'd be more interested in the swing, if any, to anti-Brexit candidates.
 

livingstone

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Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,549
Agree with the OP that if the Tories did lose it, it would be a big, big deal, which could suggest a risk of them coming under pressure on both sides of the Europe debate. That could drive them one direction or the other, but more likely it would result in a pretty nasty civil war. There is already the makings of one in the tone of the likes of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.

But also think it's extremely unlikely that UKIP will win.

Incidentally, I saw that their candidate was retweeting posts calling Gina Miller scum. Classy.
 

Spanner Island

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Feb 22, 2011
Messages
23,974
Agree with the OP that if the Tories did lose it, it would be a big, big deal, which could suggest a risk of them coming under pressure on both sides of the Europe debate. That could drive them one direction or the other, but more likely it would result in a pretty nasty civil war. There is already the makings of one in the tone of the likes of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.

But also think it's extremely unlikely that UKIP will win.

Incidentally, I saw that their candidate was retweeting posts calling Gina Miller scum. Classy.
Strange days indeed...

I'm finding it difficult to keep track of the UK media these days...

Before Trump was elected most of them wouldn't have touched him with a 10 foot barge pole...

Since his election however, they seem confused as to whether to continue with that stance or alternatively to claim some sort of credit for the current 'trend' as a result of Brexit...

Similarly I'm thinking many in the UK who would have thought Le Pen and her FN party repugnant not so long ago... now seem to be ambivalent at best about the prospect of her prevailing... Farage seems particularly smug as he wallows in the collapse of moderation and a shift to the extremes... he's one vile bastard... imo.

There are people on this site who seem to salivate over the prospect of chaos taking over...

They seem not to care that fascism could rear its ugly head...

'Them' is what it's all about... the new narrative... blame 'them' for everything...

The only trouble with that is that to others you're 'them' too...

Everyone is 'them'...

Seems not to matter though... coz blaming 'them' is just so easy...

Strange days indeed...
 
O

Oscurito

The word on De Twihhah Streeh is that turnout is abysmal.

‏@ObiDanKelnobi
Rumour has it that turnout is looking very low in Sleaford and North Hykeham. Makes it more likely an upset could happen.
 

Dame_Enda

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Dec 14, 2011
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53,660
The Remainers will only get elected if UKIP and the Tories split the Brexiteer vote. Interestingly the Labour candidate who supported Remain before the referendum now says he too wants to get out of the EU quickly.

The turnout in Richmond Park was 53.6. Still another 2 hours to go in Sleaford.
 
O

Oscurito

It's extraordinary how quick the turnaround is in the UK from resignation of MP to by-election. Stephen Phillips resigned fewer than 5 weeks ago.
 

midlander12

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Jul 29, 2008
Messages
5,835
The Tories losing this would be a political earthquake. The main focus is likely to be on who comes second. Over the last 20 years the Lab vote here has halved from 34% to about 17%, so any further fall would confirm the image from opinion polls and council byelections of a party in long-term decline. UKIP have also been fading lately so this strongly Leave constituency might be a chance for them stage a comeback. The LD's collapsed here last time but traditionally held 16-18% here, so one would expect them to pick up at least 20%.
 
O

Oscurito

Takes them longer to bury their dead, betimes
That is arguably the most enormous difference between here and Britain.

Also - and this is a very personal impression - they don't seem to consider the internet to be suitable for matters funereal.

Ach, is snáithe eile é sin, ar ndóigh.
 
O

Oscurito

Takes them longer to bury their dead, betimes
That is arguably the most enormous difference between here and Britain.

Also - and this is a very personal impression - they don't seem to consider the internet to be suitable for matters funereal.

Ach, is snáithe eile é sin, ar ndóigh.
 

Adrian_Wainer

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Dec 6, 2016
Messages
760
Good luck Victoria.

[video=youtube;1BU-M7n8imE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BU-M7n8imE[/video]
 

ffc

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Nov 6, 2007
Messages
5,157
Certainly has one of the best candidate names for many a year in the fabulous

"Bus Pass Elvis."
 

Adrian_Wainer

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Dec 6, 2016
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760
She's also for Brexit.

[video=youtube;vrX8-5Q9ga8]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrX8-5Q9ga8[/video]
 


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