Sligo-Leitrim: Call the next GE results

statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
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This is a thread for informed local discussion to predict who will take the seats. The idea is to integrate all 40 constituencies into an overall prediction on the main thread here:

Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

The candidates to date in this four-seater are:

Cllr. Sinéad Maguire (Fine Gael)
Gerry Reynolds (Fine Gael)
Deputy Eamon Scanlon (Fianna Fáil)
Deputy Marc McSharry (Fianna Fáil)

Shane Ellis (Fianna Fáil)
Deputy Martin Kenny (Sinn Féin)
Cllr. Chris MacManus (Sinn Féin)
Nigel Gallagher (People Before Profit Alliance)
Finbarr Filan (Renua)

Deputy Deputy Tony McLoughlin (FG) is not running but FG should hold their seat. No change?
 


hollandia

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This is a thread for informed local discussion to predict who will take the seats. The idea is to integrate all 40 constituencies into an overall prediction on the main thread here:

Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

The candidates to date in this four-seater are:

Cllr. Sinéad Maguire (Fine Gael)
Gerry Reynolds (Fine Gael)
Deputy Eamon Scanlon (Fianna Fáil)
Deputy Marc McSharry (Fianna Fáil)

Shane Ellis (Fianna Fáil)
Deputy Martin Kenny (Sinn Féin)
Cllr. Chris MacManus (Sinn Féin)
Nigel Gallagher (People Before Profit Alliance)
Finbarr Filan (Renua)

Deputy Deputy Tony McLoughlin (FG) is not running but FG should hold their seat. No change?
The national swing toward FG should see them get two home here. The questions is at who's expense? SF should have enough to get Kenny back in again, whilst Fianna Fail running three should get two back? So which one is it? I suspect the fourth seat will be a battle between Scanlon of FF and Reynolds of FG - with FG to take it.

2 FG, 1 FF 1 SF for me.
 

statsman

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The national swing toward FG should see them get two home here. The questions is at who's expense? SF should have enough to get Kenny back in again, whilst Fianna Fail running three should get two back? So which one is it? I suspect the fourth seat will be a battle between Scanlon of FF and Reynolds of FG - with FG to take it.

2 FG, 1 FF 1 SF for me.
I think that last seat will be very tight.
 

statsman

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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 

midlander12

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If FG are really up 5-6% nationally they have to gain a seat here. Logically it should be at FF's expense, though SF won't be counting any chickens either. I'm surprised they'd chance running 2 candidates this time.
 

statsman

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If FG are really up 5-6% nationally they have to gain a seat here. Logically it should be at FF's expense, though SF won't be counting any chickens either. I'm surprised they'd chance running 2 candidates this time.
It'd certainly be a risky thing to do.
 

the secretary

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I know he hasn't much competition from within his parliamentary party but the SF TD from this constituency isn't a bad performer. One of their better ones
 

the secretary

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He has a bit of common sense .
I reckon he has.
I seen him talking about something in the Dail one day and he knew his brief, came across well and looked the part.
Credit where credit is due.
 

Dame_Enda

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FG were 400 votes off of a second seat last time when all counts were finished. Even a small increase in their vote share would get them a second seat. I don't think a 3 candidate strategy is wise here for FF. It paid off last time, but if if SF are on 24% nationally it will backfire. I think Martin Kenny is safe. I think: 2 FG, 1SF, 1FF. I think Eamon Scanlon TD is more vulnerable.
 

the secretary

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FG were 400 votes off of a second seat last time when all counts were finished. Even a small increase in their vote share would get them a second seat. I don't think a 3 candidate strategy is wise here for FF. It paid off last time, but if if SF are on 24% nationally it will backfire. I think Martin Kenny is safe. I think: 2 FG, 1SF, 1FF. I think Eamon Scanlon TD is more vulnerable.
Indeed,if the FG vote rises here then that second seat looks likely. A FF loss
 

statsman

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The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

onlyonpaper

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Apr 4, 2008
Messages
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The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

onlyonpaper

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Apr 4, 2008
Messages
66
Bit of a surprise this week as Gerry Reynolds has withdrawn from politics and will not be standing in next general election in Sligo-Leitrim. That leaves Fine Gael with only one candidate Cllr Maguire at mo. She did relatively poorly in recent local election despite getting eventually elected.

Leitrim candidate is essential to replace him if they are to retain the Leitrim vote. Some discussions among Fine Gael people in constituency to re-run the convention as Cllr Maguire deemed too weak to retain the seat of Tony McLoughlin
 

the secretary

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Have FG finalised their election candidate process here yet?
It was messy for a while for them. Perry running as an indo might hurt them.
Any chance if them losing out altogether??🤞
 

onlyonpaper

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Messages
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Have FG finalised their election candidate process here yet?
It was messy for a while for them. Perry running as an indo might hurt them.
Any chance if them losing out altogether?

Sligo/Leitrim constituency this time round still has bit of South Dgl attached but has lost the bit of West Cavan from 2016 but now have a section of Nth Roscommon around Boyle, Ballyfarnon and Keadue.

Fine Gael now have two new candidates ex TD Frank Feighan and a local Cllr Thomas Walsh from near Sligo town. A lot of behind the scenes activity went on in FG in an attempt to get high profile replacement for Tony McLoughlin and rumour was rife that they had approached Marian Harkin to stand but that she declined. FF have the 2 sitting TDs on their ticket Eamon Scanlon and Mark McSharry and also Shane Ellis son of former TD John Ellis who is from Leitrim. Labour has nominated Nessa Cosgrove and Sinn Fein has current TD Martin Kenny and Cllr Chris McManus. John Perry wanted the FG nomination but failed to get it and has indicated that he is running as an Independent. There is speculation about what Marian Harkin will do. Some think that there is the possibility of a Rural Independence Group being formed by Fitzmaurice and some others and she would stand for that group in Sligo/Leitrim.
I would have thought 2FF, 1FG and 1 Sinn Fein is the most likely outcome but Harkin standing would put the cat among the pigeons. I dont think Perry will radically effect the result as most of his transfers will go back to FG.
 

the secretary

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SF going with a one candidate strategy now.
They must have some polling done and are getting worried after Harkin's entry into the race. A FF seat is most vulnerable imo.
 


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