So much for housing slump

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Talking with a relative who runs a fairly large new homes site for a developer.

FTB back into the market and on a neighbouring site open last weekend they booked 61 out of 65 available.

His own site sold out last Sept / Oct on the planned starts to January and now Phase 2 has sold 60% with little advertising and no launch event.

Few Investors seem to be in the market as almost all are being sold to owner occupiers.

They revising future plans and applying for planning amendments from apartments to houses as clearly apartments are struggling to sell and will remain so for a while.

Investors are gone which cools the house inflation and allows the FTBs back into the market which is good news.
 


Sidewinder

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LOL.

Jaysus ye are getting desperate to prop up the old housing market. What exactly is it that makes so many people in Ireland so deranged about property?

Accept that the market is dead, that it was a bubble, and that if ye would put a fraction of the energy and time that ye put into houses into actual real wealth-creating industries instead we'd be the richest country on Earth.

No country ever got rich by building houses and selling them to one another. It doesn't bloody work. Get over it and do something useful with your life instead FFS. Something that might actually benefit the citizens of Ireland and create sustainable wealth for future generations.

Bloody mucksavage peasantry.
 

kerrynorth

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odie1kanobe said:
Talking with a relative who runs a fairly large new homes site for a developer.

FTB back into the market and on a neighbouring site open last weekend they booked 61 out of 65 available.

His own site sold out last Sept / Oct on the planned starts to January and now Phase 2 has sold 60% with little advertising and no launch event.

Few Investors seem to be in the market as almost all are being sold to owner occupiers.

They revising future plans and applying for planning amendments from apartments to houses as clearly apartments are struggling to sell and will remain so for a while.

Investors are gone which cools the house inflation and allows the FTBs back into the market which is good news.
I take it that you were not watching the 6.1 News then?
 

Anorakphobia

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odie1kanobe said:
Talking with a relative who runs a fairly large new homes site for a developer.

FTB back into the market and on a neighbouring site open last weekend they booked 61 out of 65 available.

His own site sold out last Sept / Oct on the planned starts to January and now Phase 2 has sold 60% with little advertising and no launch event.

Few Investors seem to be in the market as almost all are being sold to owner occupiers.

They revising future plans and applying for planning amendments from apartments to houses as clearly apartments are struggling to sell and will remain so for a while.

Investors are gone which cools the house inflation and allows the FTBs back into the market which is good news.
Where are these developments?
 

markeys

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Though welcome indeed, I'm fairly certain one development does not a property market make. I'm sure numerous posters here can point out several developments where sales of such quantity or speed is not the case.
 

Fish

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633
Sidewinder said:
LOL.

Jaysus ye are getting desperate to prop up the old housing market. What exactly is it that makes so many people in Ireland so deranged about property?

Accept that the market is dead, that it was a bubble, and that if ye would put a fraction of the energy and time that ye put into houses into actual real wealth-creating industries instead we'd be the richest country on Earth.

No country ever got rich by building houses and selling them to one another. It doesn't bloody work. Get over it and do something useful with your life instead FFS. Something that might actually benefit the citizens of Ireland and create sustainable wealth for future generations.

Bloody mucksavage peasantry.
Agreed!

Tell me odie how much did the developer have to reduce his prices by in order to get people to buy?

There's still large amounts of empties and mothballed sites out there at the moment conservatively estimated at at least a few years supply. Moreover a few fire sales here and there will not put life back into the property market.

Property is dying a slow death through the media because there is no will out there to report the truth about the great property pyramid. Denial I think it is called.

The property boom/sham will in my opinion go down in Irish history as one great act of national suicide. The fact that people are still clinging to the beliefs that the current slide is short term and or that house prices roughly averaged at 10X times the average industrial wage is somehow justified reinforces my belief that this country is both in need of and deserving of a collective kick in the backside.

That kick is coming though and no amount of waffle, wishfull thinking or spinning by the property Vested interests both large and small can do anything to stop it.
 

Milton Fine

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Probably Dalriada in Firhouse where the developer dropped prices by approx 20% and as a result the development was mobbed at the weekend.

I own a couple of apartments which I have rented out at €1300 per month.
Atthe peak, I probably could have sold these for €440,000. At the moment they're selling for around €370,000. I would suggest I'm insulated at €350,000 because that figure represents a yield of 4.5% which would be enough to stimulate investor activity. It's a long term play so I'm not as concerned as you might expect.
 

Squire Allworthy

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Milton Fine said:
Probably Dalriada in Firhouse where the developer dropped prices by approx 20% and as a result the development was mobbed at the weekend.

I own a couple of apartments which I have rented out at €1300 per month.
Atthe peak, I probably could have sold these for €440,000. At the moment they're selling for around €370,000. I would suggest I'm insulated at €350,000 because that figure represents a yield of 4.5% which would be enough to stimulate investor activity. It's a long term play so I'm not as concerned as you might expect.
You get 10% in state controlled India and better elsewhere so Ireland is not a good place to develop or invest in property. Hasn't been for the last few years. Your are making a return of 15,600 on 370,000 minus costs. That is assuming full rental and you don't have long periods of vacancy or the tenant from hell. Very marginal in my opinion. You are even devaluing your asset to get the 4.5% figure? You are in there and I suppose stuck so long term is the only option.

On buy to let too many people are still thinking of making profit on increases in value rather than rental, that is not a good model and has been dubious for some time. House prices are not going up in the next few years.

The problem with property is when it turns sour you are often stuck with large financial commitments and assets that can be very difficult to sell. If I had shares worth $500,000 I could access that money very quickly, a house of the same value, may take a year or more to sell and all the time it sits it costs money and ties up time.

Like everything else the trick is to buy in the trough which will probably be 2 years out or with property keep an eye on likely changes in legislation that rezones or restricts development. If you can guess, or influence, likely changes you can make serious returns.
 

adrem

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924
Fish said:
Sidewinder said:
LOL.

Jaysus ye are getting desperate to prop up the old housing market. What exactly is it that makes so many people in Ireland so deranged about property?

Accept that the market is dead, that it was a bubble, and that if ye would put a fraction of the energy and time that ye put into houses into actual real wealth-creating industries instead we'd be the richest country on Earth.

No country ever got rich by building houses and selling them to one another. It doesn't bloody work. Get over it and do something useful with your life instead FFS. Something that might actually benefit the citizens of Ireland and create sustainable wealth for future generations.

Bloody mucksavage peasantry.
Agreed!

Tell me odie how much did the developer have to reduce his prices by in order to get people to buy?

There's still large amounts of empties and mothballed sites out there at the moment conservatively estimated at at least a few years supply. Moreover a few fire sales here and there will not put life back into the property market.

Property is dying a slow death through the media because there is no will out there to report the truth about the great property pyramid. Denial I think it is called.

The property boom/sham will in my opinion go down in Irish history as one great act of national suicide. The fact that people are still clinging to the beliefs that the current slide is short term and or that house prices roughly averaged at 10X times the average industrial wage is somehow justified reinforces my belief that this country is both in need of and deserving of a collective kick in the backside.

That kick is coming though and no amount of waffle, wishfull thinking or spinning by the property Vested interests both large and small can do anything to stop it.
I agree with some but not all of that.

The market is falling has fallen and will continue to fall (just thought I'd get that out there at the beginning lest I be accused of talking up the market or being a mucksavage !)

However - conservative estimates do not indicate "at least a few years supply". They estimate between 12 mths and 18 mths over supply and that builds in an expected wipe out of the immigrant buyer (which I think is accurate).

The fundamental requirement for housing has not disappeared. Like most bubbles we over supplied and over priced. The market will now correct in 2 ways - on the supply side starts will more than likely crash completely this year. On the price side, most new estates have already cut by (on average) 10% and there is probably another 10% to come. The estates which have seen the big interest in sales (as mentioned by an earlier poster) are those where the developer made the cut in one jump - 20-25%

People are cautious but not stupid. If they are in the market for a home and in a lot of cases they have now been in the market for their home for 6-12 months, they are seeing their affordability increase (salary increases, small tax cuts, mortgage interest relief increases, stamp duty cuts) and they are seeing the prices fall by 10-25%.

In the same way that people posit that a short term property investor would have to be mad to buy in the current market equally if you are buying a home and one comes up that you like in the circumstances outlined above - you would be equally mad not to. (IMHO of course !)
 

superdeluxe

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Sidewinder said:
LOL.

Jaysus ye are getting desperate to prop up the old housing market. What exactly is it that makes so many people in Ireland so deranged about property?

Accept that the market is dead, that it was a bubble, and that if ye would put a fraction of the energy and time that ye put into houses into actual real wealth-creating industries instead we'd be the richest country on Earth.

No country ever got rich by building houses and selling them to one another. It doesn't bloody work. Get over it and do something useful with your life instead FFS. Something that might actually benefit the citizens of Ireland and create sustainable wealth for future generations.

Bloody mucksavage peasantry.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
 

Edo

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Messages
3,040
adrem said:
Fish said:
Sidewinder said:
LOL.

Jaysus ye are getting desperate to prop up the old housing market. What exactly is it that makes so many people in Ireland so deranged about property?

Accept that the market is dead, that it was a bubble, and that if ye would put a fraction of the energy and time that ye put into houses into actual real wealth-creating industries instead we'd be the richest country on Earth.

No country ever got rich by building houses and selling them to one another. It doesn't bloody work. Get over it and do something useful with your life instead FFS. Something that might actually benefit the citizens of Ireland and create sustainable wealth for future generations.

Bloody mucksavage peasantry.
Agreed!

Tell me odie how much did the developer have to reduce his prices by in order to get people to buy?

There's still large amounts of empties and mothballed sites out there at the moment conservatively estimated at at least a few years supply. Moreover a few fire sales here and there will not put life back into the property market.

Property is dying a slow death through the media because there is no will out there to report the truth about the great property pyramid. Denial I think it is called.

The property boom/sham will in my opinion go down in Irish history as one great act of national suicide. The fact that people are still clinging to the beliefs that the current slide is short term and or that house prices roughly averaged at 10X times the average industrial wage is somehow justified reinforces my belief that this country is both in need of and deserving of a collective kick in the backside.

That kick is coming though and no amount of waffle, wishfull thinking or spinning by the property Vested interests both large and small can do anything to stop it.
I agree with some but not all of that.

The market is falling has fallen and will continue to fall (just thought I'd get that out there at the beginning lest I be accused of talking up the market or being a mucksavage !)

However - conservative estimates do not indicate "at least a few years supply". They estimate between 12 mths and 18 mths over supply and that builds in an expected wipe out of the immigrant buyer (which I think is accurate).

The fundamental requirement for housing has not disappeared. Like most bubbles we over supplied and over priced. The market will now correct in 2 ways - on the supply side starts will more than likely crash completely this year. On the price side, most new estates have already cut by (on average) 10% and there is probably another 10% to come. The estates which have seen the big interest in sales (as mentioned by an earlier poster) are those where the developer made the cut in one jump - 20-25%

People are cautious but not stupid. If they are in the market for a home and in a lot of cases they have now been in the market for their home for 6-12 months, they are seeing their affordability increase (salary increases, small tax cuts, mortgage interest relief increases, stamp duty cuts) and they are seeing the prices fall by 10-25%.

In the same way that people posit that a short term property investor would have to be mad to buy in the current market equally if you are buying a home and one comes up that you like in the circumstances outlined above - you would be equally mad not to. (IMHO of course !)
Good balanced post Adrem.

There would have to have been some degree of latent demand built up given the catastrophic fall off in transactions over the last 12 months - with interests rates appearing to have stabilised to some degree recently (watch this space) and a degree of realism coming into the sellers mind with a notable decline in asking prices - a pickup in sales was on the cards - people still need houses - couples are still getting married and having babies.

The investors are out of the market yes - and i can see a few dead cat bounces as I think the overall prices in the market are still on the high side - but then again there will always be a market and sellers and buyers - given inflation is on the rise and the banks are still pulling their burnt horns in regard to credit - I dont see any overall price rises - if anything I see incremental falls in order to increase turnover - for a good 2-3 years until the market recallibrates - its not the end of the world - just the way the market works and I hope the Gov stays the hell out of it -no more fiddling with the rules and lets the market on with it.
 

farnaby

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Sidewinder said:
No country ever got rich by building houses and selling them to one another. It doesn't bloody work. Get over it and do something useful with your life instead FFS. Something that might actually benefit the citizens of Ireland and create sustainable wealth for future generations.

Bloody mucksavage peasantry.
But is there a first world country that experienced a property bubble that ended up in poverty? Japan hardly looks like it's in squalor; the UK has remained a good place to own property long after the 80s boom.

Views like this don't put much faith in Irish people to find a way out of the decline on the horizon - have you ever thought that high house prices might actually be a catalyst for people to realise they have to create sustainable wealth, necessity being the mother of invention and all that?

Yes we've made a big mistake but it is not the end of the world, we should be looking further forward than the decline.
 

Leftfemme22

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adrem said:
I agree with some but not all of that.

The market is falling has fallen and will continue to fall (just thought I'd get that out there at the beginning lest I be accused of talking up the market or being a mucksavage !)

However - conservative estimates do not indicate "at least a few years supply". They estimate between 12 mths and 18 mths over supply and that builds in an expected wipe out of the immigrant buyer (which I think is accurate).

The fundamental requirement for housing has not disappeared. Like most bubbles we over supplied and over priced. The market will now correct in 2 ways - on the supply side starts will more than likely crash completely this year. On the price side, most new estates have already cut by (on average) 10% and there is probably another 10% to come. The estates which have seen the big interest in sales (as mentioned by an earlier poster) are those where the developer made the cut in one jump - 20-25%

People are cautious but not stupid. If they are in the market for a home and in a lot of cases they have now been in the market for their home for 6-12 months, they are seeing their affordability increase (salary increases, small tax cuts, mortgage interest relief increases, stamp duty cuts) and they are seeing the prices fall by 10-25%.

In the same way that people posit that a short term property investor would have to be mad to buy in the current market equally if you are buying a home and one comes up that you like in the circumstances outlined above - you would be equally mad not to. (IMHO of course !)
You are forgetting one vital aspect adrem. The credit crunch has made mortgage approvals much more difficult for the average home buyer to get. Lending criteria is rapidly shrinking back to pre-bubble multiples of 2-3 times total income. (substantially down from the insane multiples of 8-10 that banks where happy to allow as recent as 6 months ago)

The money is simply no longer there to sustain the widespread massive over pricing that still exists even when taking into account salary increases, mortgage tax relief increases and the price cuts of up to 25%. They need to come down a lot more. (IMHO of course as well!)
 

Leftfemme22

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Edo said:
I hope the Gov stays the hell out of it -no more fiddling with the rules and lets the market on with it.
The problem is Edo, they won't. They will delay the natural correction we are witnessing at the moment by buying huge banks of housing at current market value for Social housing. They are doing it parts of Tipp already IIRC. That will artificially bouy price-levels for a while and bail out a lot of FFs developer friends at the same time.
 

rockyracoon

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Imho, citing the British housing market as a shining example of how the property market should work is less than salubrious. While the 80's saw the start of home ownership as an ideal for the ordinary person, it also began the march of the house as an investment vehicle rather than as a home for the family. Hence we saw the first bubble burst in the late 80's early 90's. It took over a decade and a major improvements in the British economy to start the whole cycle over again.

Here we are in the later part of our decade and its happening all over again, and the Irish vastly out performed the British on property speculation. Kudos. Meanwhile, the most distinctive feature of the underlying economy is the debt levels ordinary punters are assuming in order to obtain the necessities of life like housing. The price growth multiples over GDP that house prices have sustained, via speculation, keep going up in each sucessive generation. How long before more and more people just cannot afford homes based on this speculatively priced market model? We are not building homes, we're constructing an house of cards.
 

Aindriu

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rockyracoon said:
How long before more and more people just cannot afford homes based on this speculatively priced market model? We are not building homes, we're constructing an house of cards.
Good points a chara.
 

badboy2

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Sidewinder said:
LOL.

Jaysus ye are getting desperate to prop up the old housing market. What exactly is it that makes so many people in Ireland so deranged about property?

Accept that the market is dead, that it was a bubble, and that if ye would put a fraction of the energy and time that ye put into houses into actual real wealth-creating industries instead we'd be the richest country on Earth.

No country ever got rich by building houses and selling them to one another. It doesn't bloody work. Get over it and do something useful with your life instead FFS. Something that might actually benefit the citizens of Ireland and create sustainable wealth for future generations.

Bloody mucksavage peasantry.
The scarey thing is that he may be right.

I looked at a few houses this year and they have all gone above AMV.

It looks like Irish people are too stupid to wait six months.

If it rallies now the crash will be even worse.

We actually need a sustained period of deflation to bring the "market" back in line with wages
 

needle_too

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Aug 7, 2007
Messages
918
Youre all overlooking the availability of credit to continue purchasing.

I personally know 3 people in Dublin who cannot sell their properties.

Anyone saying that the property market is in anything but freefall is either dim or lying. Full stop.


You guys need to get the Firefox plugin from www.Property-bee.com

You can use it to track prices on rightmove.co.uk and Daft.ie

Come on over, download the plugin, surf to Daft.ie and watch them prices tank from the comfort of your own (partially paid for) living room.
 

Sidewinder

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Messages
442
There's been over 30 housing bubbles and crashes in OECD countries since 1970, yet every single time the herd convince themselves that "this time it's different" and collectively stampede for the cliff. Housing bubbles are nothing new, they are actually very very common. And they always pan out the same way. The only real variation is the timescale, whether the reversion to mean takes 2 years or 10.

 


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