So that was #GE2020...so what will the next government look like?

Disillusioned democrat

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We're beginning to get a sense of the make up of the next Dail, but it's far from obvious what this means from a government perspective...it's hard to imagine a government with FG in it or without SF in it, but loads of possible permutations.

Anyone care to opine or suggest their preferred government based on the now likely numbers?
 


wombat

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FF, SD, SF. Greens want carbon tax, SF don't so leave out the Greens?
 

jimbohane

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FF/SF and it will be a couple of independents who support FF and the Social Democrats who support SF. FF if they have 2 or 3 seats more than SF will never allow the possibility of whatever partners are coming in to join up with SF and outnumber them.
 

paulp

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FF/SF and it will be a couple of independents who support FF and the Social Democrats who support SF. FF if they have 2 or 3 seats more than SF will never allow the possibility of whatever partners are coming in to join up with SF and outnumber them.
which party gets taoiseach?
party with more votes or more TDs?
 

wombat

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owedtojoy

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It is still (slight) odds on to be FF + Greens + Lab + SDs + some Independents, with FG giving Confidence and Supply. Some of the smaller groupings are optional. How long would it last? Well, not many will want to go into the mix with Sinn Fein running 80 candidates within a year or so.

An SF led government is just not on right now, imho. Would the Greens line up behind the only major party that opposes a carbon tax? Labour? Doubt it.

FF + SF + others? Not a starter, but possibly a second option if the one above does not work out.

Of course, a lot depends on where those last few seats are going to fall. So there is an element of lottery and luck.
 

Uganda

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We're beginning to get a sense of the make up of the next Dail, but it's far from obvious what this means from a government perspective...it's hard to imagine a government with FG in it or without SF in it, but loads of possible permutations.

Anyone care to opine or suggest their preferred government based on the now likely numbers?
It will be sf/ff
 

Uganda

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The party with most seats.

Although strictly speaking they're pretty much the same thing since each TD has one quota of votes.
Not necessarily

if, say ff have 41 seats, and SF 37, but SF get 5 Inds/PBPB to vote for mcdonald then she becomes Taoiseach (assuming everyone else abstains)
 

Baron von Biffo

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It is still (slight) odds on to be FF + Greens + Lab + SDs + some Independents, with FG giving Confidence and Supply. Some of the smaller groupings are optional. How long would it last? Well, not many will want to go into the mix with Sinn Fein running 80 candidates within a year or so.

An SF led government is just not on right now, imho. Would the Greens line up behind the only major party that opposes a carbon tax? Labour? Doubt it.

FF + SF + others? Not a starter, but possibly a second option if the one above does not work out.

Of course, a lot depends on where those last few seats are going to fall. So there is an element of lottery and luck.
If FF is in the mid 40s and SF is in the high 30s there wouldn't be a need for teh Greens and micro parties.

FF/SF with the Healy-Raes and Lowry could be rock solid.

The advantage for the parties of having the three amigos is that they'd stay bought and they wouldn't demand ministries.
 

Uganda

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If FF is in the mid 40s and SF is in the high 30s there wouldn't be a need for teh Greens and micro parties.

FF/SF with the Healy-Raes and Lowry could be rock solid.

The advantage for the parties of having the three amigos is that they'd stay bought and they wouldn't demand ministries.
I think this is the most likely scenario.

In effect its a coalition (sf/ff) with a C&S from Healy raes et al

C&S didn’t work when supporting party has nearly as many seats as the govt.

It can work when it involves a handful
 

Baron von Biffo

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Not necessarily

if, say ff have 41 seats, and SF 37, but SF get 5 Inds/PBPB to vote for mcdonald then she becomes Taoiseach (assuming everyone else abstains)
Technically that's right but then technically the Taoiseach could be an Independent if a Dail majority voted for him.

The reality is that that the jobs of Taoiseach and ministers will be decided as part of the negotiations on a government programme.
 


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