So that was #GE2020...so what will the next government look like?

shiel

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Yes, agree that if FF and FG can’t form a government without SF then it would be wrong for them not to talk to SF. But we’re not at that stage yet, and won’t be imo, they will sort out a government that doesn’t include SF.
Will there not be another election?
 


ShoutingIsLeadership

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Look at the utter contempt SF has shown for the Greens and the alphabets. They publicly announced the end of the talks without having the decency first to notify the other parties.

Why would they treat FF any differently?
Naivety or contempt?
 

hiding behind a poster

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It’s the most logical and stable solution for the running of the country. For the Greens and FF it makes loads of sense. For FG less so and if it doesn’t happen it’ll be because they balk at it.

politically it definitely makes sense for FG to sit out and let FF/SF collapse though and then go for another vote in a year.Hard choices.
Correct, though the opposition in FF to going in with SF really does seem solid.
 

hiding behind a poster

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No , it is the "Comical Ali of FF" , reminds me of the famous Peudo Commander of Saddam Hussein Publicity/Régime spokesman appearing nightly on the Beeb/ITV/SKY when the US/UK invaded Iraq in 2004.He was a comedian in the literal sense of the word , denying everything to the press in the hotel HQ when everyone there could see for themselves.Same applies to FFG etc here.The electorate voted to boot out the stale, formulaic, conservatives and bring in fresh air, fresh blood, fresh thinking, fresh ideas.The culture and world has to evolve and the pre-economic crash thinking caused the crash and the delusion in FF.FF better get with it or they will end up like Labour, small,stale, aged,irrelevant,yesterday's men/women, or is FF there already?
That's a bit simplistic. Who are you defining as "stale, formulaic conservatives", and who are you defining as "fresh air, fresh blood, fresh thinking, fresh ideas"?
 

hiding behind a poster

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Everything we've ever seen FF say. Everything we've ever seen SF say or do. Everything we've seen in Greece. Everything we've seen in Italy.
I'm not so sure it would collapse. SF will want to show both the voters and the other parties that they're trustworthy partners, and FF will invariably take an initial hit to elements of their core support, so will want some time to pass without facing them, so they can point to delivery and success when they ultimately have to. Those common imperatives could keep them together.
 

hiding behind a poster

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I agree: If any group or groupings can cobble together the numbers they are perfectly entitled to form a government.

Where FF and FG are, however behaving undemocratically is in point blank refusing to even discuss government options with Sinn Fein if they themselves are unable to form a government.
That's not undemocratic at all. They said they wouldn't go into government with SF.

This claim that voters only voted for FFFG on the basis they wouldn't go into coalition with SF is nonsense
Nobody is making that claim.

in a Democracy you get to vote for who you want in government - you don't get a veto over who should be kept out.
Nobody has a veto under these numbers.

The only outcome that people definitely did vote for is an actual government and if there are options that would allow that then it is the democratic duty of all politicians to engage in that process in good faith to try and get it over the line.
Actually, nobody voted for a government. People voted for representatives.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Yes - that's democracy. There are no guarantees in any negotiation - I said it was the democratic duty of all politicians to attempt to form a government in good faith. Deciding that a party with 25% of the vote is unfit for Government (which is what FFFG are doing) is the definition of undemocratic behaviour.
No it isn't, it's a political decision that they're perfectly entitled to make. Undemocratic would be refusing to recognise a government that had SF in it.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Yes, agree that if FF and FG can’t form a government without SF then it would be wrong for them not to talk to SF. But we’re not at that stage yet, and won’t be imo, they will sort out a government that doesn’t include SF.
There's no obligation on anyone to try and form a government. If there was, where would we draw the line - should we be giving out that the Healy-Raes aren't talking to people about forming a government?
 

rockofcashel

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Lets have another election.
thats whats going to happen

SF are going to take up the mantle of the Left.. and suck away all RBB/PBP/Solidarity/some Green votes, to get 10 extra seats

FG are going to counter point by claiming that SF's version of the Left will be some kind of Democratic Socialist Republic hell hole, and they are the only ones that can save Ireland from it.. they'll win back a about 6/8 extra seats by boxing FF in and also better candidate management (1 in Tipp for example)

FF are caught in a FG/SF pincer movement, along with having an internal row over potential post election partners and potentially new leadership

Labour shrink further as Howlin retires and they fight over who should be leading them. Hell, Kelly might even do a Micheal Keating and jump to FG to save a seat

Soc Dems do ok

Greens, do ok

Indos shrink

Final result.. SF biggest party.. but still no closer to a Left lead Alliance

FG second biggest.. FF now have to cut a deal to stop a third election
 

Sync

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thats whats going to happen

SF are going to take up the mantle of the Left.. and suck away all RBB/PBP/Solidarity/some Green votes, to get 10 extra seats
For Green voters it can be more a cause than a vote for a govt, but absolutely agree on the RBB/PBP/ABCDVFDU parties.

If you want a left govt, if you REALLY want it and you’re serious and not just tilting a windmills like a child, there’s no excuse for voting for one of the tiny splinter parties over SF next time.
 

Sync

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Fine Gael would demand a rotating Taoiseach role as part of a grand coalition deal with Fianna Fáil.

Senior ministers have said the price for power Micheál Martin would have to pay is sharing the role of Taoiseach with Leo Varadkar. Other key demands include income tax cuts, improved childcare subsidies and the continued roll-out of rural broadband.

Sounds a bit fanciful to be expect a rotating lead role. The rest seems doable.

As Ireland’s political leaders struggle to find a way to form a government, Sinn Féin conceded it would be impossible for it to form a government without the support of either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.
The left got enough seats to put together a govt. and they can’t come close to getting it done. And that’s not SFs fault. People should think on that before giving their first preference to whatever vanity project Paul Murphy runs under next time.
 

galteeman

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thats whats going to happen

SF are going to take up the mantle of the Left.. and suck away all RBB/PBP/Solidarity/some Green votes, to get 10 extra seats

FG are going to counter point by claiming that SF's version of the Left will be some kind of Democratic Socialist Republic hell hole, and they are the only ones that can save Ireland from it.. they'll win back a about 6/8 extra seats by boxing FF in and also better candidate management (1 in Tipp for example)

FF are caught in a FG/SF pincer movement, along with having an internal row over potential post election partners and potentially new leadership

Labour shrink further as Howlin retires and they fight over who should be leading them. Hell, Kelly might even do a Micheal Keating and jump to FG to save a seat

Soc Dems do ok

Greens, do ok

Indos shrink

Final result.. SF biggest party.. but still no closer to a Left lead Alliance

FG second biggest.. FF now have to cut a deal to stop a third election
If all this is true then why on Earth would FF want another election? Surely they will do a deal now?
 

galteeman

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Sounds a bit fanciful to be expect a rotating lead role. The rest seems doable.



The left got enough seats to put together a govt. and they can’t come close to getting it done. And that’s not SFs fault. People should think on that before giving their first preference to whatever vanity project Paul Murphy runs under next time.
Why fanciful? They have 35 and FF 38.
 

brughahaha

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thats whats going to happen



FG are going to counter point by claiming that SF's version of the Left will be some kind of Democratic Socialist Republic hell hole, and they are the only ones that can save Ireland from it.. they'll win back a about 6/8 extra seats by boxing FF in and also better candidate management (1 in Tipp for example)

Not sure that particular line of attack has any resonance with the voters ...they tried it this time , even with the Paul Quinn story which was in full flight just before the embargo .....zero effect.

The only ones listening to or believing that are the bedrock FG base ...cant see it changing anyones mind

Think Leo and FG will still be toxic at any election within the year ......Homelessness homelessness homelessness ... Healthcare healthcare healthcare
 


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