Solar Minimum 2009, Global Cooling and the Record Breaking Winter

Cassandra Syndrome

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
16,885
Interesting publication from April 2009 discussing the consequences of the solar minimum, the steepest in 100 years. They argue that this would create global cooling as what happened during the mini Ice Age of the Dalton era in the 18th and 19th Centuries.

Since then we have had record breaking cold winters across the Northern Hemisphere. Our own Winter has been the 1 of the coldest in 100 years.

Goodbye Global Warming - Solar Minimum 2009
 


Oreo Livermore

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 22, 2010
Messages
734
The carbon taxes are working. The Earth is begining to cool. In April ye will get the chance to knock it down another degree. Pay up now, no complaining. The planet has a fever
 

seanmacc

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 10, 2009
Messages
1,016
Very good programme on last night on BBC2 "How the Earth Made Us" part 5.

Outlined how human activity has basically led to the earth avoiding an ice-age. The finger was pointed at methane from the domestication of livestock and deforestation as the causes of global warming rather than CO2. Worth a watch on the i-player. CO2 wasn't dismissed as a cause of global warming but it made for interesting veiwing and backs up the theory of the cold years to come.
 

brigg

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2009
Messages
497
Since then we have had record breaking cold winters across the Northern Hemisphere. Our own Winter has been the 1 of the coldest in 100 years.

The Jet Stream has been weaker and further south than normal this winter, displacing usual weather patterns, and allowing some places to be colder than normal, while other places have been warmer than normal. For instance, Madeira has found itself in the path of the displaced jet, and has been bombarded with the Atlantic storms we usually get in Winter.

The warmest winter in over a century has plaqued Olympic organisers in Vancouver..
Vancouver warm spell breaks record
"It's been an absolutely phenomenal stretch of much warmer than normal weather," said Jones.
"It started on Jan. 1 and it hasn't let up and it's showing no signs of letting up and … it's going to remain warm through the next week or two."
Record High temperatures in Bulgaria

In the southern hemisphere, 6 months ago, Australia experienced its warmest winter on record.
Australia's warm winter a record

None of this proves global warming, any more than a cold winter proves global cooling.
To put it crudely, our weather patterns are fecked up, and whats causing it is debatable.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
16,885
The Jet Stream has been weaker and further south than normal this winter, displacing usual weather patterns, and allowing some places to be colder than normal, while other places have been warmer than normal. For instance, Madeira has found itself in the path of the displaced jet, and has been bombarded with the Atlantic storms we usually get in Winter.

The warmest winter in over a century has plaqued Olympic organisers in Vancouver..
Vancouver warm spell breaks record


Record High temperatures in Bulgaria

In the southern hemisphere, 6 months ago, Australia experienced its warmest winter on record.
Australia's warm winter a record

None of this proves global warming, any more than a cold winter proves global cooling.
To put it crudely, our weather patterns are fecked up, and whats causing it is debatable.
I never heard of a "snow hurricane" before.

?Snow Hurricane? Approaches New York, Pennsylvania (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

It was snowing in Nevada, Arizona, right across the southern states. Spain, Korea, Japan, China etc. Its all over the Northern hemisphere. The gulf stream has moved lower as a result of the cooling descending from the North.
 

brigg

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2009
Messages
497
I never heard of a "snow hurricane" before.

?Snow Hurricane? Approaches New York, Pennsylvania (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

It was snowing in Nevada, Arizona, right across the southern states. Spain, Korea, Japan, China etc. Its all over the Northern hemisphere. The gulf stream has moved lower as a result of the cooling descending from the North.
You never heard of a snow hurricane before because there's no such thing. Typical media hype!
There is nothing unusual about snow in winter in Japan Korea or China. Vast continental landmasses cool dramatically in Winter, and the prevailing winds in Japan or Korea tend to blow off the freezing interior of China/Russia/Siberia.
Spain is the most mountainous country in Europe, with a vast plateau interior. Snow is very common there in Winter, contrary to popular belief. Arizona and Nevada are also high altitude.

I would love to believe the gulf stream was disappearing, I love snow, but the current sea surface temperature anomalies suggest nothing of the sort.
The waters around Britain and Ireland are colder than normal, due to the prolonged cold spell of weather, but to the west, northwest, and north the ocean temps are still above normal.
 

ibis

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 12, 2005
Messages
12,293
Perhaps, when thinking about global temperature, we need to do more than just list off "places that are cold":



Because, you know, other places aren't.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
16,885
You never heard of a snow hurricane before because there's no such thing. Typical media hype!
There is nothing unusual about snow in winter in Japan Korea or China. Vast continental landmasses cool dramatically in Winter, and the prevailing winds in Japan or Korea tend to blow off the freezing interior of China/Russia/Siberia.
Spain is the most mountainous country in Europe, with a vast plateau interior. Snow is very common there in Winter, contrary to popular belief. Arizona and Nevada are also high altitude.

I would love to believe the gulf stream was disappearing, I love snow, but the current sea surface temperature anomalies suggest nothing of the sort.
The waters around Britain and Ireland are colder than normal, due to the prolonged cold spell of weather, but to the west northwest, and north the ocean temps are still above normal.
Would media hype not be working for the warming side? I know snowfalls can happen anywhere at anytime during the Winter. But this is a synchronised record breaker all across the Northern Hemisphere. Type in snow record winter into Google News and its eyeopening.

I would dismiss this as a freak year, but when Solar minimum started a year ago, it adds to the belief that our climate is primarily governed by the Sun.

The Dalton and Maunder minimums correlate with the Mini Ice age. The 1970s solar cycle was weak and the 70s was chilly. The 90s solar cycle was strong and temperatures increased.
 

ibis

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 12, 2005
Messages
12,293
Would media hype not be working for the warming side? I know snowfalls can happen anywhere at anytime during the Winter. But this is a synchronised record breaker all across the Northern Hemisphere. Type in snow record winter into Google News and its eyeopening.

I would dismiss this as a freak year, but when Solar minimum started a year ago, it adds to the belief that our climate is primarily governed by the Sun.

The Dalton and Maunder minimums correlate with the Mini Ice age. The 1970s solar cycle was weak and the 70s was chilly. The 90s solar cycle was strong and temperatures increased.
What is it with you and facts? The cold spell at the end of 2009 (a) only happened in certain areas, while others were anomalously warm (see map); and (b) only lasted for a while.

Here's the summer of 2009:



Really, you're sticking your fingers in your ears here, and shouting "it isn't happening!". Worse, you're making it obvious that you're doing so.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
16,885
Perhaps, when thinking about global temperature, we need to do more than just list off "places that are cold":



Because, you know, other places aren't.
Have you got a link for that same chart for the 1st 2 weeks of 2010?

Here is the January temperatures for Fairbanks Alaska, which appeared red in that graph in December. While we were freezing, their temperatures were below normal as well

Fairbanks Daily Record
 

Cassandra Syndrome

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
16,885
What is it with you and facts? The cold spell at the end of 2009 (a) only happened in certain areas, while others were anomalously warm (see map); and (b) only lasted for a while.

Here's the summer of 2009:



Really, you're sticking your fingers in your ears here, and shouting "it isn't happening!". Worse, you're making it obvious that you're doing so.
Physical memories of temperatures correlate with solar, as well as the data. But hey 2 + 2 = 5, if the party says so.
 

sharper

Well-known member
Joined
May 3, 2009
Messages
1,027
Here is the January temperatures for Fairbanks Alaska, which appeared red in that graph in December. While we were freezing, their temperatures were below normal as well

Fairbanks Daily Record
Firstly that's the record for January 2009, not January 2010. You could have looked or the heading or the url.

Secondly here's what your source has to say about the weather in Fairbanks for the period under discussion:

Year in Review - 2009
September brought the first frost to Fairbanks on the 23rd, extending the growing season by 15 days over the 30-year mean. October followed the same pattern of higher than normal temperatures and lower than normal precipitation. The first measurable snowfall also occurred at the end of the month, 5.3” measured at the airport. November also saw above normal average temperatures (+2.3°F), below normal precipitation (0.26”) and snowfall at just 5.4”. December again saw higher than normal temperatures (+3.1°F), which carried over into January, and was 28% below normal precipitation for the month.
 

roc_

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 5, 2009
Messages
6,234
My understanding is that before a probabilistic and exceedingly complex system like a climate system jumps to a new equilibrium it goes a little haywire and oscillates just before the jump. Sounds to me like this is what is going on. I'd also add that the critical variable is heat absorbed by the earth which is much more now there is less ice cover etc. This is evidenced by the earth's waters expanding as they get warmer, which we can see in higher sea levels etc...
 

ibis

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 12, 2005
Messages
12,293
Physical memories of temperatures correlate with solar, as well as the data. But hey 2 + 2 = 5, if the party says so.
Do you mean that you felt cold? Look, CS, the facts are there - no amount of harping on about the cold spell changes them. What you're claiming as a cold year "in line with solar activity" isn't actually a cold year at all, but a warm year with a regional cold spell at the end of it - which should make it obvious that it doesn't fit your preferred hypothesis.

5+5=3 - if we ignore the majority of the data, as you're doing.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
16,885
Firstly that's the record for January 2009, not January 2010. You could have looked or the heading or the url.

Secondly here's what your source has to say about the weather in Fairbanks for the period under discussion:

Year in Review - 2009
When you enter time series history, on February 2010's data at the bottom when you click previous month it went to 2009. So you have to manually enter in the address. So here is January 2010 which has lower average temperature's than 2009

Fairbanks Daily Record
 

ibis

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 12, 2005
Messages
12,293
When you enter time series history, on February 2010's data at the bottom when you click previous month it went to 2009. So you have to manually enter in the address. So here is January 2010 which has lower average temperature's than 2009

Fairbanks Daily Record
And they're still irrelevant to what's on the map, CS, because "normal temperatures" in the series aren't the same baseline as on the map. Nor are the temperatures on the Fairbanks record average temperatures - they're min and max temperatures for each day. If it was -10 for 10 minutes in the morning, and 20 degrees the rest of the day, that will be recorded as -10 and 20, but it doesn't give you even a vague idea of the average temperature.

Once again, you're comparing apples and pigpens.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
16,885
Do you mean that you felt cold? Look, CS, the facts are there - no amount of harping on about the cold spell changes them. What you're claiming as a cold year "in line with solar activity" isn't actually a cold year at all, but a warm year with a regional cold spell at the end of it - which should make it obvious that it doesn't fit your preferred hypothesis.

5+5=3 - if we ignore the majority of the data, as you're doing.
So how many heatwaves in 2009? At the start of the year there was 1 in Australia. But in the Northern Hemisphere how were the summers? Cool in Ireland. Cool in Europe, the States.

How many hurricanes? 3

Than come the Winter and we have an onslaught of record breaking snowfalls. A warm year?
 

Akrasia

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 6, 2006
Messages
1,128
It is simply unfathomable that you can be too stupid to realise the fallacy of your own argument CS, therefore, I can only conclude that you are deliberately lying.

2009 was one of the top 3% warmest years on record according to pretty much all the reputable climate bodies.
 

feargach

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 11, 2006
Messages
4,968
Now, Cassandra, think very carefully on this.

Some places on Earth got unseasonably cold around the time of these solar events. But you have also got clear proof that some other places were unseasonably warm at exactly the same time.

You are claiming that the best explanation for the places that happened to be unseasonably cold is a direct result of the solar events.

How do you explain the places that were, at exactly the same time, unseasonably warm?

You can hardly say that the warm places were caused by normal fluctuations, while the cold places were not caused by normal fluctuations, can you?

Please just focus on this problem rather than leafing through 1984 for another quote.
 

ibis

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 12, 2005
Messages
12,293
So how many heatwaves in 2009? At the start of the year there was 1 in Australia. But in the Northern Hemisphere how were the summers? Cool in Ireland. Cool in Europe, the States.

How many hurricanes? 3

Than come the Winter and we have an onslaught of record breaking snowfalls. A warm year?
Er yes. You see, if every day in a year were 1 degree hotter than the corresponding day the previous year, then the year will be, you know, 1 degree hotter on average. If it's 1.1 degree hotter for 100 days, and 5 degrees colder for 20, those balance out - you don't need a heatwave to correspond to the cold spell. If it's 1.1 degrees warmer in the Southern Hemisphere, and 1 degree cooler in the North, then it's 0.1 degree warmer globally. So you need to look at the whole surface of the Earth, over the whole year, to get a global average temperature.

Do you really not get this? You can do it pretty easily in Excel.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top