Solar Minimum 2009, Global Cooling and the Record Breaking Winter

fiannafailure

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I'm afraid DS' point does sound familiar, but only because I've been through it before with him. What he means is - more or less literally - that there's no roof on the sky.
Does he then believe that NASA wasted their money on those troublesome heat reflecting tiles on the shuttle
 


brigg

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After just listening to the radio1 weather forecast for tomorrow I was struck by what seems like an odd prediction... " temperatures will be between 5 and 8 C but will remain at 0 C where fog persists"
On frosty nights the forecast will very often include the line "..coldest where skies remain clear". How do you explain that?
Cloud at night keeps temperatures higher. This is primary school stuff.

Fog isn't cloud in the true sense, its surfaced-based, and can be quite shallow.
You can have fog at the surface, but the clear sky will still be visible directly overhead.

The temperature of saturated air rises and falls much slower than dry air.
Until the sun burns through the fog, and dries out the air somewhat, the temperature will often struggle to rise. The fog tomorrow is expected to persist due to lack of wind, and the sun is still relatively weak at this time of year.

Interpreting the wording in a weather forecast to suit your own notions is really petty.
 

imokyrok

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Heh - have you seen the thread on "the AGW cult"? Now that's primary school stuff.
More like kindergarten.
 

owedtojoy

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There is a difference betwen "climate" and "weather".

When climate change is discussed, "climate" is usually taken to be the average weather patterns over a 30-year period.

My advice to anyone wanting to discuss the current weather is to remember (to a first approximation)

Climate = Arse
Weather = Elbow

If you want to be taken seriously, show that you know the difference.
 

feargach

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That is not the situation at all. The Irish climate appears to be going through a cooling phase and it can be discussed under the heading of SHORT TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY.
The word Global is in the thread title, not local.

Australia is boiling, and frankly a continent getting to record temperatures has more impact than a small island near the north pole.
 

feargach

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Deniers should ask one of the nurses on their ward to let them see a globe. They can examine the distance between Ireland and the North pole, and try and take in the fact of how very little land is so near to the poles. Maybe also take note of the fact that Alaska is having record-high temperatures, and then compare the relative sizes of the landmasses of Ireland and Alaska, to guage their significance.
 

ibis

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That is not the situation at all. The Irish climate appears to be going through a cooling phase and it can be discussed under the heading of SHORT TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY.
Well, no, not really. The shorter the scale at which you look at climate, the closer it approaches being weather, and the less meaningful any answers to "why is this happening?" become.

At the day to day scale, weather is almost completely dominated by the events of the previous few days, which is why it is mathematically difficult to make forecasts beyond a timescale of a few days (longer explanation with chaos theory involved is possible here).

On the scale you're talking about, of a couple of years, the weather is still largely dominated by previous events, and is still therefore largely chaotic in nature. Any trends, unless they're really brutally powerful, won't dominate the results on that timescale. They'll be there, alright, but masked under so much noise you can't see them.

If 90% of Ireland's summer weather over the last three years is attributable only to the internal workings of climate, rather than any trends affecting climate, then you can't get a meaningful answer to your question other than "because".

To give some idea of what the balance is, look at this graph of Malin Head's temperature:



Variation there from year to year is about a degree or so (+/- 0.5 degrees), and the global warming trend is currently about 0.013 degrees per year. In any given year, therefore, the noise (non-global warming) component is about 98.7% of the effect, while the global warming trend component is about 1.3%.

I appreciate you're not specifically asking about AGW, but the question does come up often enough to make making that point worthwhile. Climate change can't explain the weather in any one year - the concept doesn't really make sense. Something worth pointing out, though, is that the more energy in a system, the stronger the oscillations it becomes capable of.

What else might be affecting Irish weather on a year to year basis? The obvious answer is the North Atlantic Decadal Oscillation (NAO). There's a paper here which teases out the effects of the NAO on air temperature etc in Ireland. The summer effects of the NAO appear to be about 0.15-0.18 degrees, so, using our annual variation of 1 degree, you can see that the NAO explains about 15-18% of Irish summer weather.

This is the NAO effect, graphically:



And this is the phase:



So the explanation for Irish weather over the last three years is going to be about 4% AGW, 15-18% NAO, and 78-81% chaotic variation. El Nino is not really involved, except if it links up with the NAO. It has a strong effect on overall global temperature, but not so much on Ireland.
 
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Cassandra Syndrome

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That delightful RTE weathergirl Jean Byrne has just said that this was the Coldest Winter since 1963. Mmmmm Jean.
 

Tombo

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The following couple of decades will be a real test for the alarmists.

The solar cycle has only just turned. If the next 11 years are characterised by much lower solar maxima as some astronomers thinks is likely, we may see the affects accumulate on the climate and global temps.

This really hasn't been tested or observed through a cycle. It would be nice if warmy alarmists would just sit on their fidgety hands and let scientists do that for a decade or so.
 

sharper

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This really hasn't been tested or observed through a cycle. It would be nice if warmy alarmists would just sit on their fidgety hands and let scientists do that for a decade or so.
Oh right so I guess 30 years of data isn't enough I guess everyone should just keep quiet for another 10 years. I'm sure that in 10 years time there won't be any reason to keep quiet for another 10 years.
 

SAT

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Oh right so I guess 30 years of data isn't enough I guess everyone should just keep quiet for another 10 years. I'm sure that in 10 years time there won't be any reason to keep quiet for another 10 years.
Thank God you weren't around in the days when solar eclipses were an unexplained mystery. You'd have been slaughtering virgins left, right and centre.
 

Tombo

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Deniers should ask one of the nurses on their ward to let them see a globe. They can examine the distance between Ireland and the North pole, and try and take in the fact of how very little land is so near to the poles. Maybe also take note of the fact that Alaska is having record-high temperatures, and then compare the relative sizes of the landmasses of Ireland and Alaska, to guage their significance.
Most ice cover in the arctic for the entire (but short) 6 year record of the Danish Centre for Ocean and Ice...



and now coming within one standard deviation of the 1979-2006 average coverage as reported by the Nansen Centre:



hmmm.


What sort of globe did your nurse give you?
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Thank God you weren't around in the days when solar eclipses were an unexplained mystery. You'd have been slaughtering virgins left, right and centre.
:p

Excellent! There have only been 2 days this year with no sunspots, so this cycle will be hard to call. However the sun is still pretty inactive, so expect the same below average summer this year. There will be no major heatwaves in general and another inactive hurricane season.
 

SAT

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What sort of globe did your nurse give you?
I think he's only allowed one of the soft spongy types in his ward. They're nice as the texture matches the walls but not so good for details.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Deniers should ask one of the nurses on their ward to let them see a globe. They can examine the distance between Ireland and the North pole, and try and take in the fact of how very little land is so near to the poles. Maybe also take note of the fact that Alaska is having record-high temperatures, and then compare the relative sizes of the landmasses of Ireland and Alaska, to guage their significance.
Yeah its roasting in Alaska alright especially now in March

Alaska : Weather Underground

How about Greenland? Not so Green. Why was it called Greenland when it was discovered 1000 years ago?

Greenland : Weather Underground
 


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