South Belfast : DUP hard-Brexit vote V lighter shade of green ?

McSlaggart

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Claire Hanna is ready to set her differences with the SDLP to one side and put herself forward to run as the party's South Belfast candidate in the next general election.

Ms Hanna, who resigned the SDLP whip in February following the party's link-up with Fianna Fail, said she is already doing the groundwork to challenge the sitting MP, Emma Little-Pengelly of the DUP.


Her public statements on her wish to run for the seat show the issues that the sdlp still have with party management. That said if she did run I would place a bet on her to win the seat.
 


raetsel

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Claire Hanna is ready to set her differences with the SDLP to one side and put herself forward to run as the party's South Belfast candidate in the next general election.

Ms Hanna, who resigned the SDLP whip in February following the party's link-up with Fianna Fail, said she is already doing the groundwork to challenge the sitting MP, Emma Little-Pengelly of the DUP.


Her public statements on her wish to run for the seat show the issues that the sdlp still have with party management. That said if she did run I would place a bet on her to win the seat.
I like her. She is clever, articulate and reasonable. The problem is that the non unionist vote is so dispersed between the SDLP, Alliance, Sinn Fein and the Greens, and now that the seat is no longer held by McDonnell, all of the above will feel equally entitled to stand.
Pengelly won it with a very poor performance, 30.4% of the vote, and has been a disgrace in her representations of the interests of the vast majority of her constituents, with some nakedly sectarian interventions on the issue of paramilitary flags in experimental mixed housing estates like Global Crescent and Cantrell Close. I'm told that the UVF effectively control that area now.
Sinn Fein and the Greens look like the two parties with the least chance of winning the seat, considering its demographic makeup.
 

RasherHash

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Rocky

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SDLP has been very quiet on the link with Fianna Fail since February, so I am not surprised she has come back into the fold.

It is a possible SDLP gain, but realistically the SDLP would need to get supporters of other parties to back their candidate to stop the DUP. I think SF would prefer to see the DUP keep the seat then the SDLP win it, so they will resist all attempts at that. I suspect the Alliance will be pushing for the seat and they do have a realistic chance of winning it too. The Greens don't but I would say there voters would lean more to the Alliance anyway.
 

raetsel

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If there is a general election forthcoming as a consequence of a no confidence vote, then the pro remain parties need to get together to form an electoral pact. They could easily take two seats off the DUP, i.e. Belfast South and Belfast North. They should also stand aside in North Down.
 

2lazy

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If there is a general election forthcoming as a consequence of a no confidence vote, then the pro remain parties need to get together to form an electoral pact. They could easily take two seats off the DUP, i.e. Belfast South and Belfast North. They should also stand aside in North Down.
If one was to take that a step further maybe it is time for SF voters and activists to start shifting over to Alliance - the moderates there are the voters that need to be targeted for a United Ireland.
Working from the inside a slow shift in that direction would be possible?, so long as a UI is associated with SF middle unionists will not be swayed along with a sizable number on the nationalist side.
No party would ever contemplate its own demise but if the end justifies the means and all that.
 

Mickeymac

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If one was to take that a step further maybe it is time for SF voters and activists to start shifting over to Alliance - the moderates there are the voters that need to be targeted for a United Ireland.
Working from the inside a slow shift in that direction would be possible?, so long as a UI is associated with SF middle unionists will not be swayed along with a sizable number on the nationalist side.
No party would ever contemplate its own demise but if the end justifies the means and all that.

Unbelievable...……..

See the source image
 

Golah veNekhar

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Any Irish Patriot wants a Brexit hard as a hooker's heart.
 

raetsel

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If one was to take that a step further maybe it is time for SF voters and activists to start shifting over to Alliance - the moderates there are the voters that need to be targeted for a United Ireland.
Working from the inside a slow shift in that direction would be possible?, so long as a UI is associated with SF middle unionists will not be swayed along with a sizable number on the nationalist side.
No party would ever contemplate its own demise but if the end justifies the means and all that.
It's not a realistic prospect. What might work is running an independent candidate in both target constituencies, who'd be prepared to take their seats.
 

Newrybhoy

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Of course, if these "independent" candidates were to win, with the Help of unionist voters who oppose Brexit, nationalists wouldn't start crowing that this was also a pro UI vote, with all that entails.
 

McSlaggart

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Of course, if these "independent" candidates were to win, with the Help of unionist voters who oppose Brexit, nationalists wouldn't start crowing that this was also a pro UI vote, with all that entails.
South Belfast is a pro EU seat. Unionism only got around 15000 votes.

Brexit :

All changed, changed utterly: A terrible beauty is born.
 

Paddyc

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Of course, if these "independent" candidates were to win, with the Help of unionist voters who oppose Brexit, nationalists wouldn't start crowing that this was also a pro UI vote, with all that entails.
South Belfast is a Nationalist majority constituency. Winning it back would be seen as a step, a baby step, but a step nonetheless, towards a United Ireland. Every vote not for a Unionist candidate is a vote less in favour of the union however you wish to explain it away.

The Nationalist majority of South Belfast will vote tactically in favor of the candidate most likely to defeat Emma Little-Pengally. She does not represent this constituency and will be rejected.
 

Newrybhoy

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South Belfast is a Nationalist majority constituency. Winning it back would be seen as a step, a baby step, but a step nonetheless, towards a United Ireland. Every vote not for a Unionist candidate is a vote less in favour of the union however you wish to explain it away.

The Nationalist majority of South Belfast will vote tactically in favor of the candidate most likely to defeat Emma Little-Pengally. She does not represent this constituency and will be rejected.
Time will tell.

The 23000 that didn't vote will tell the tale.
 

Paddyc

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Time will tell.

The 23000 that didn't vote will tell the tale.
The people who don’t vote don’t count. Now Nationalists know what it’s like to be represented by the DUP. Let’s see if they feel like repeating the experience.
 

Newrybhoy

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The people who don’t vote don’t count. Now Nationalists know what it’s like to be represented by the DUP. Let’s see if they feel like repeating the experience.
If you have 7000 who will vote for unrepentant murderers, that is exactly what will happen.
 

devonish

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South Belfast is a Nationalist majority constituency. Winning it back would be seen as a step, a baby step, but a step nonetheless, towards a United Ireland. Every vote not for a Unionist candidate is a vote less in favour of the union however you wish to explain it away.

The Nationalist majority of South Belfast will vote tactically in favor of the candidate most likely to defeat Emma Little-Pengally. She does not represent this constituency and will be rejected.
South Belfast does not have a nationalist majority, combined SDLP/SF 37%, combined unionist 32% and Alliance/Green 29%. It's a very mixed constituency, certainly no evidence that it has, or will soon have a nationalist voting majority.
 

raetsel

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Of course, if these "independent" candidates were to win, with the Help of unionist voters who oppose Brexit, nationalists wouldn't start crowing that this was also a pro UI vote, with all that entails.
:rolleyes:
Jesus, what compels you to type this nonsense?
If a candidate standing on a pro-EU platform won, how could anyone, other than someone as slow as yourself, interpret it as a vote for a united Ireland?
In the last election the entire unionist vote only came to 34.5% in Belfast South, by the way. The reality is that unionists are over-represented in Westminster.
 

Newrybhoy

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:rolleyes:
Jesus, what compels you to type this nonsense?
If a candidate standing on a pro-EU platform won, how could anyone, other than someone as slow as yourself, interpret it as a vote for a united Ireland?
In the last election the entire unionist vote only came to 34.5% in Belfast South, by the way. The reality is that unionists are over-represented in Westminster.
Take that up with SF.

The nationalist choice.
 

raetsel

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Take that up with SF.

The nationalist choice.
Why would I take it up with SF? You made the claim, and it is a red herring.
If an agreed pro EU candidate is elected, who is endorsed by Alliance and the Greens, as well as SF and the SDLP, then by definition he/she is neither nationalist nor unionist.
The Alliance Party and the Greens and their electorate are already made up of soft nationalists and soft unionists, who have chosen to park the constitutional issue in order to prioritise other policies.
 

Newrybhoy

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Why would I take it up with SF. You made the claim, and it is a red herring.
If an agreed pro EU candidate is elected, who is endorsed by Alliance and the Greens, as well as SF and the SDLP, then by definition he/she is neither nationalist nor unionist.
The Alliance Party and the Greens and their electorate are already made up of soft nationalists and soft unionists, who have chosen to park the constitutional issue in order to prioritise other policies.
You said that unionists were over represented at Westminster.

I said take it up with SF. You elected them to represent nationalism, on you're own head be it.
 


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