Spanish General Election 2019

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
59,567
Spain goes to the polls yet again on April 2019. For the first time since the end of the Franco regime, the Far Right seem likely to win a fair number of seats. The Vox party, which is anti immigration, anti-LGBT, anti abortion and anti-separatist is predicted to win 12% in the latest poll. Is this a rejection of PM Sanchez's immigration policy, or a backlash to the continuing Catalan separatist dispute? Will it affect Brexit, as Vox would want a hardline on Gibraltar.

Latest polls are:

17299




Opinion polling for the 2019 Spanish general election - Wikipedia

PP = Popular Party - the main centre-right party. PSOE are the ruling Socialists. Ciudadanos are a new lThe Animalist party is a pro animal rights party. JPC are a new Catalan nationalist party founded by the former president Puigdemont. CC are a Valencian bloc that includes Valencian nationalists and the Left.
 


Breanainn

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2014
Messages
2,950
The Socialists are actually up in polls compared not just to the GE, but where they stood before Sanchez took office - partly because of Podemos imploding, with Valencian and Galician branches seceding, but also because of fragmentation on the right. As you say, the Catalan crisis had led to a move towards the right among Castilian Spaniards, with Ciudadanos the initial beneficiaries, before the emergence of Vox after Andalusian elections in December, all of which had led to a leaching of support from the Partido Popular, which is still recovering from a corruption scandal.

That said, as the election campaign has progressed, Vox are incrementally, but demonstrably, falling from their peak ratings, with Cs recovering slightly. The left and right blocs are now contesting the numerical lead, and it seems inevitable that the Basque and Catalan parties will hold the balance of power.
 

Barroso

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 1, 2011
Messages
5,978
PP = Popular Party - the main centre-right party. PSOE are the ruling Socialists. Ciudadanos are a new lThe Animalist party is a pro animal rights party. JPC are a new Catalan nationalist party founded by the former president Puigdemont. CC are a Valencian bloc that includes Valencian nationalists and the Left.
PP is not centre right - it is and always has been hard right.
C's (Ciudadanos) is a younger, more modern version of same (they accept divorce, contraception and abortion as being the new normal, and get a young vote for doing so), funded by banks and Aznar's foundation, while Vox are extreme right.
 

Clanrickard

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 25, 2008
Messages
34,532
PP is not centre right - it is and always has been hard right.
C's (Ciudadanos) is a younger, more modern version of same (they accept divorce, contraception and abortion as being the new normal, and get a young vote for doing so), funded by banks and Aznar's foundation, while Vox are extreme right.
PP is centre right always has been .
 

Barroso

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 1, 2011
Messages
5,978
PP is centre right always has been .
If Franco was centre right, then so is the PP.
The party is his legacy to the Spanish political system, run by and for the offspring of the people who most benefitted from Franco's rule.
 

Clanrickard

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 25, 2008
Messages
34,532
If Franco was centre right, then so is the PP.
The party is his legacy to the Spanish political system, run by and for the offspring of the people who most benefitted from Franco's rule.
Franco wasn't centre right as you obviously know but choose to be a smart alec. The PP are not Franco.
 

Barroso

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 1, 2011
Messages
5,978
Franco wasn't centre right as you obviously know but choose to be a smart alec. The PP are not Franco.
They are his direct heirs - I have an intimate knowledge of Spain (various parts) and its political system.

Just to give an example of Spain's political system (not the PP alone), when ETA was active, the government used to say that if the violence stopped, all matters could be discussed.
Yet when the Catalans wanted to hold a referendum on independence, they called it rebellion, they sent in the police to beat up voters - just ordinary people like you and me, and then they put the political and other leaders in prison.
That was - and is - the PP. They outlaw what they don't like, and then call all attempts to democratic change "rebellion" or "sedition" and use violence against their opponents. They are the direct heirs to Franco's regime.
 

toughbutfair

Well-known member
Joined
May 28, 2009
Messages
11,035
Spain has a strong fascist culture. Listening to the debate , they repeatedly talked about law and order as if the law determines what is morally right. They also view the constitution , which was only written in 1978 as unchangeable. They have compulsory i.d cards from 14 year olds upwards , supported Hitler, have shrines to dictators, celebrate their mass murder and genocide in South America, police beat the public for peaceful free speech etc .
 

SweenyTodd

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 21, 2018
Messages
1,601
To present the Popular Party as pro-abortion is to misrepresent the popular party. It is not a pro-abortion party.
"There are many opinions in the PP: from those who are absolutely against [abortion] to those who believe that every woman has a different personal and family situation that only she can assess. We do all agree that a woman should not think she is forced to make this decision for lack of social support or because of an unfavorable work or economic situation.”

 

Breanainn

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2014
Messages
2,950
The political stattos here will love the Spanish Ministry of the Interior's election website - gives turnout levels by autonomous community, province and city, and will give a live count from 7 p.m. Irish time.

 

Breanainn

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2014
Messages
2,950
Still 7 minutes until polls close, but a leaked exit poll:

Right 166 (PP 71, Cs 51, Vox 42, Navarre alliance 2)
Left 151 (PSOE 107, Podemos 44)
Nationalist 33 (Catalan parties 20, Basque parties 9, Valencians 3, Canary Islands 1)

If replicated in results, another election would seem inevitable.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
59,567
Looks like the Left parties will need to rely on the regional nationalist parties. Projected that PP will lose half its seats. Vox will get 24 seats. Combined vote of PSOE and Podemos projected at 165. 176 is a majority.
 

Breanainn

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2014
Messages
2,950
Looks like the Left parties will need to rely on the regional nationalist parties. Projected that PP will lose half its seats. Vox will get 24 seats. Combined vote of PSOE and Podemos projected at 165. 176 is a majority.
PNV are basically the SDLP of the Basque Country, in terms of moderation, rather than ideology, so will provide their 6 seats - Sanchez may well prefer to stick on 170, knowing the Catalans would never join forces with Vox.
 

jmcc

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
46,000
So is this a classic growth of the Right (far and centre) versus fragmentation of the Left (more indistinguishable left of centre parties) result?
 

owedtojoy

Moderator
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
53,192
Looks like the Left parties will need to rely on the regional nationalist parties. Projected that PP will lose half its seats. Vox will get 24 seats. Combined vote of PSOE and Podemos projected at 165. 176 is a majority.
Vox split the conservative vote.

Hopefully, the PSOE/ Podemos will have the leverage to ensure stable government, some sort of solution to Catalonia.

There is a conundrum there for any nationalists - how do you reconcile Catalan nationalism and Spanish nationalism, who are diametrically opposed to each other?
 

Breanainn

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2014
Messages
2,950
So is this a classic growth of the Right (far and centre) versus fragmentation of the Left (more indistinguishable left of centre parties) result?
If anything, the exact opposite - PP had almost as many seats in 2016 as the combined right in 2019, bled votes to both Vox and Ciudadanos, and the Socialists capitalised by playing up the threat of the far-right.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top Bottom