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Speculating on an IMF bailout for Ireland

patslatt

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For the terms for Hungary's €25 billion IMF bailout,see FACTBOX-Hungary details conditions of IMF package - Forbes.com These terms are softer than the IMF's historical slash and burn terms for emerging markets, but the one of a freeze on public sector pay could be hard,with recent consumer price inflation of around 8%.

<Mod> This thread has been merged with "Should Ireland ask the IMF for cash before its too late?" </Mod>
 
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bluefish

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Should Ireland ask the IMF for cash before its too late?

Should Ireland ask the IMF for cash now before its too late?

Clearly other countries like the UK are going to have to go to the begging bowl before long, and when they do there might be nothing left for us (Ireland).

So should we forget our pride and get in first before its too late?
 
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Seos

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Hey careful now. Down with that sort of thing.
Yeah now it's all his fault if we do need the IMF!

But yeah that does seem very mild. We don't have 13th month pay or pensions do we?
We're doing almost all of those things already, which means I assume that if we go to the IMF I assume further measures would be ordered.

I don't know much about the Hungarian economy but are the quarterly criteria achievable? Can they go from a 280 billion forint deficit in March(and that's a goal too) to a 255 billion forint surplus in September for example?
Could it be that this plan is a stepping stone to tougher measures, with (relatively) light measures to start with but very demanding criteria? Or does the plan, while not directly ordering tough measures, force the government to bring in tougher measures anyway because of the criteria?

Again I say for all I know Hungary can meet those criteria without further measures, I really don't know.
 

seabhcan

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Should Ireland ask the IMF for cash now before its too late?

Clearly other countries like the UK are going to have to go to the begging bowl before long, and when they do there might be nothing left for the us.

So should we forget our pride and get in first before its too late?
We are currently able to borrow on commercial terms.

The IMF is like a loan shark who brakes your legs first, on the assumption you won't be able to pay him back.
 

ballot stuffer

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They would be charging more than we could get on the bond market and demanding a huge pound of flesh from the public service.

Think 20% redundancies and 30%+ wage cuts in the public sector for starters. There is a reason people only go to the IMF last!
 

Dios

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Think 20% redundancies and 30%+ wage cuts in the public sector for starters. There is a reason people only go to the IMF last!
Interesting hypothetical here: what if public sector unions refused to accept IMF recommendations and went on strike until they were withdrawn?
 

ballot stuffer

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Interesting hypothetical here: what if public sector unions refused to accept IMF recommendations and went on strike until they were withdrawn?
We don't get the money in the first place. These are an example of the conditions attached to getting IMF loans. If the government doesn't get cash they can strike all they want because they won't be paid because there is no cash in the coffers.
 

Seos

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Interesting hypothetical here: what if public sector unions refused to accept IMF recommendations and went on strike until they were withdrawn?
No option would be ruled out, ie if a compromise was not found use of the military would not be ruled out. Because the gun of not recieveing the cash is pointed at the government's head.
(economy is more important than democracy in their eyes. Because they believe free market leads to free people)
 

Seos

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So we'd see the army hauling away union leaders in vans, the right to strike and gather in public places suspended, that sort of thing?
Very unlikely that a compromise wouldn't be worked out. (like pay rises in the future or something) But I'm fairly certain IMF never withdraws recommendations. So without compromise that sort of thing could happen.

The Irish unions despite what are said about them don't seem too bad and wouldn't force the governments hand like that.
 

stanley

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You really could not bring in the IMF and allow the people who caused the crisis, FF, in power, they would have to be eradicated and where possible criminal charges brought, no point in the IMF coming in and have these strokers lying in wait round every corner.

The IMF could well reorganise our whole system, halve politician's numbers and reduce the Public Service because the FF'rs will never do it, the effect of the IMF could be very long-lasting.
 

Seos

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You really could not bring in the IMF and allow the people who caused the crisis, FF, in power, they would have to be eradicated and where possible criminal charges brought, no point in the IMF coming in and have these strokers lying in wait round every corner.

The IMF could well reorganise our whole system, halve politician's numbers and reduce the Public Service because the FF'rs will never do it, the effect of the IMF could be very long-lasting.
That is not the function of the IMF, nor should it be. No outside body should decide the terms of our democracy. It is up to voters to bring in what you say if they agree with you.
 

Outlander

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The IMF doesn't force anyone's hand. Nor do they try to subvert democracy.

They have however learned a lot from the bananna republics.

They will drip-feed you all of this money so that you can feed your children - if you do things their way.

The choice is simple.
 

Seos

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The IMF doesn't force anyone's hand. Nor do they try to subvert democracy.

They have however learned a lot from the bananna republics.

They will drip-feed you all of this money so that you can feed your children - if you do things their way.

The choice is simple.
Of course not, starve or do what we say is not forcing anyone's hand... They mightn't try to subvert democracy but a subversion of democracy can be necessary to do things their way in their timeframe.
 

ballot stuffer

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That is not the function of the IMF, nor should it be. No outside body should decide the terms of our democracy. It is up to voters to bring in what you say if they agree with you.
They are usually only called in when a country has defaulted or is about to or is perceived by the market to be at high risk.

The government in power needs cash so if they want the IMFs cash they must accept the conditions.

Usually the government in charge knows what needs to be done but would like the IMF to take the blame.
 

Seos

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They are usually only called in when a country has defaulted or is about to or is perceived by the market to be at high risk.

The government in power needs cash so if they want the IMFs cash they must accept the conditions.

Usually the government in charge knows what needs to be done but would like the IMF to take the blame.
And the IMF can put any economic conditions they like on these loans(including the size of the public sector), they should not however decide things like the number of politicians. That is part of our political system and political systems should only be chosen by the people.
Ideally a referendum should be held on the IMF plan if we are ever in that position.

Just remember who to thank if things ever get that bad. ;)
I know exactly who to blame... people talking down the economy. :p ;)
 

Outlander

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And the IMF can put any economic conditions they like on these loans(including the size of the public sector), they should not however decide things like the number of politicians. That is part of our political system and political systems should only be chosen by the people.
Ideally a referendum should be held on the IMF plan if we are ever in that position.


I know exactly who to blame... people talking down the economy. :p ;)
Ideally we would never be in that position. Our success at passing referenda might delay investment for a few years
 

ballot stuffer

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And the IMF can put any economic conditions they like on these loans(including the size of the public sector), they should not however decide things like the number of politicians. That is part of our political system and political systems should only be chosen by the people.
Ideally a referendum should be held on the IMF plan if we are ever in that position.


I know exactly who to blame... people talking down the economy. :p ;)
Yeah but thems the breaks if you go cap in hand to the IMF unfortunately.

If you cant get a loan or won't get one from the IMF its time to take scalpel to your own spending. Why take the political heat for that when you can blame the IMF ;)
 


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