Standard Chartered: Ireland may leave Euro in two years

Anglo Celt

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Just watched a report on BBC World News where a representative of Standard Chartered said that there is a strong possibility that after two years of recession, with political opposition to the Euro countries like Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal may leave the Euro. He didn't say if they'd be pressed to leave the Euro but said that EU attitudes towards weaker countries in the EU will change drastically. IF that happens, where does it leave Ireland?
 


He3

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at the heart of Europe?
 

wombat

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Just watched a report on BBC World News where a representative of Standard Chartered said that there is a strong possibility that after two years of recession, with political opposition to the Euro countries like Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal may leave the Euro. He didn't say if they'd be pressed to leave the Euro but said that EU attitudes towards weaker countries in the EU will change drastically. IF that happens, where does it leave Ireland?
Let's worry about the next 6 months first
 

HarshBuzz

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How to trigger Deposit Flight

Lesson 1
 

Eye of Angkor

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And how will the State guarantee for the banks that are about to be sold/merged stand up when the holders of mortgages cannot pay euro denomimated mortgages in the devalued punt?

Barring the collapse of the euro this is trolling. No doubt Standard Chartered made money out of the recent crisis.
 

McDave

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Just watched a report on BBC World News where a representative of Standard Chartered said that there is a strong possibility that after two years of recession, with political opposition to the Euro countries like Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal may leave the Euro. He didn't say if they'd be pressed to leave the Euro but said that EU attitudes towards weaker countries in the EU will change drastically. IF that happens, where does it leave Ireland?
There are weak links in the Euro. So it's a fair question. I think the line will be drawn at weaker countries which are prepared to adapt.

Incidentally, I don't think Spain will exit the Euro. To do so would strike at the heart of their aspirations (!) to be a mid-ranking EU player.
 

controller

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Ask Brian Lenihan. If he says its not true.........it must be
 

Clanrickard

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There are weak links in the Euro. So it's a fair question. I think the line will be drawn at weaker countries which are prepared to adapt.
.
What exactly does that mean.
 

Cato

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McDave

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What exactly does that mean.
If PIGS take serious steps to rectify their heretofore poor economic policies, they'll receive Eurozone support.

I don't think the Eurozone ever intended itself to be an elite of DM-replicant super-economies. The single currency presupposes a certain degree of economic divergence. You might ask the question, 'How divergent?'. I'd say, probably not as divergent as Greece turned out to be. To that extent, an unapologetic Greece would be Eurozone toast. A Greece that tries to redeem itself though just might be able to stay on board.
 

McDave

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I'm sure the Greeks will tire of trying to redeem themselves. So will we.
I can't speak for the Greeks. But as far as Ireland is concerned, "redeeming" ourselves is probably another way of saying we have a chance to instill some discipline into our politics and economy. We'd be fools to throw it away.
 

TradCat

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McDave

That is assuming the process works. It may well throw us into a spiral of debt deflation and emigration from which it will be impossible to emerge under the terms of the bailout. As a debt free home owning worker I don't need the "discipline" of paying the debts of foolish bankers while they escape either discipline or justice.

To try and sell it as a moral lesson for Ireland is a stretch. We'll try it their way. But only for so long. If it isn't working then there will be trouble.
 

stray creditor

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Three things could happen;

1.Core Europe keeps the Euro and peripheral limbs are amputated to save the head and core body of the Eurozone.

2.Germany reverts to the DM and everyone goes back to their original currencies,

3.There is a two tier Euro,of an International Euro in Germany, France and Benelux and a Domestic Euro for the PIGS.

All three options are messy and painful.
 

McDave

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McDave

That is assuming the process works. It may well throw us into a spiral of debt deflation and emigration from which it will be impossible to emerge under the terms of the bailout. As a debt free home owning worker I don't need the "discipline" of paying the debts of foolish bankers while they escape either discipline or justice.

To try and sell it as a moral lesson for Ireland is a stretch. We'll try it their way. But only for so long. If it isn't working then there will be trouble.
As I see it, it's not really a moral issue as such. We signed up to an arrangement. A dire government then proceeded to make practically every mistake in the book. An now we're in the poo.

You could be right. Maybe we're too far gone and there's nothing left in the tank. No-one can say Ireland is definitely going to pull out of this hole. Like I said earlier in the thread the contention in the OP is a fair one to raise. I'm cautiously optimistic that we can somehow retrieve the situation. But I wouldn't be overly confident. We can only try our best and hope we're not too far off the Eurozone pace.
 

needle_too

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Back to Sterling in time for 2016.

Oh! The irony!
 

SideysGhost

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If PIGS take serious steps to rectify their heretofore poor economic policies, they'll receive Eurozone support.
"support" in the form of a couple of hundred billion in debt we can never afford to repay, we can do without. With friends like these....

No, a radical Govt that will overturn the corrupt clientelist system, jail the FFers, default on the debt, rip out all the pork and vested-interest rigged markets and focus on driving down prices across the economy and refocuing on actual wealth generation, not scammery and speculation and lining the pockets of the connected - that's the only way Ireland will get out of this.

If the EU was so bloody wonderful they should have noticed at some point in the last 13 years that Ireland was being run by a shower of gangsters intent on looting the gaff.

FF need to be forcibly eradicated, but the EU are no friends of ours either - just another shower of sociopathic piggies at the trough.
 

McDave

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"support" in the form of a couple of hundred billion in debt we can never afford to repay, we can do without. With friends like these....
... to cover 10s of billions of private and public sector spending we frontloaded. It's debt we as people largely incurred. That part of we are morally obliged to pay.

As for the Irish government bail-out of Anglo-Irish, that's another question entirely and I certainly won't stand over that betrayal of the taxpayer by FF. They're the friends we don't need...
 

McDave

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If the EU was so bloody wonderful they should have noticed at some point in the last 13 years that Ireland was being run by a shower of gangsters intent on looting the gaff.
That was our job to sort out as a sovereign people exercising our democratic vote. On that score we failed, utterly.
 


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