Steiner Partisan Voting Index Rating

msteiner

Active member
Joined
Nov 20, 2010
Messages
112
Over the past month, I have been working tirelessly to create a Partisan Voting Index system similar to the American 'Cook Partisan Voting Index' system. After a couple hundred hours of work, I was able to create a very accurate and viable model that not only functions correctly for Ireland, but also has the potential to function for any multi-party system.

While I won't release the specific information as to how the model was generated, I will generally explain how it is designed simply to validate its accuracy and production. Through analysis of the few previous elections, most notably 2007, all data from each constituency was normalized and then compared to the normalized national average, eventually providing the actual deviation by constituency for each party. Below are the official numbers.

Carlow Kilkenny
• FF ± 0%​
• FG – 2%​
• L – 4%​
• G + 3%​
• SF – 9%​
Cavan Monaghan
• FF – 7%​
• FG – 2%​
• L – 12%​
• G – 2%​
• SF + 23%​
Clare
• FF + 3%​
• FG + 4%​
• L – 15%​
• G – 2%​
• SF – 9%​
Cork East
• FF – 7%​
• FG – 2%​
• L + 12%​
• G – 5%​
• SF – 3%​
Cork North Central
• FF – 4%​
• FG – 3%​
• L + 2%​
• G – 2%​
• SF + 2%​
Cork North West
• FF + 3%​
• FG + 4%​
• L – 10%​
• G – 4%​
• SF ± 0%​
Cork South Central
• FF – 1%​
• FG – 2%​
• L – 4%​
• G + 4%​
• SF – 6%​
Cork South West
• FF – 4%​
• FG + 2%​
• L – 4%​
• G + 1%​
• SF – 6%​
Donegal North East
• FF + 2%​
• FG – 7%​
• L – 13%​
• G – 7%​
• SF + 17%​
Donegal South West
• FF + 2%​
• FG – 8%​
• L – 13%​
• G – 7%​
• SF + 21%​
Dublin Central
• FF – 2%​
• FG – 17%​
• L + 9%​
• G + 5%​
• SF + 11%​
Dublin Mid West
• FF – 5%​
• FG – 7%​
• L ± 0%​
• G + 9%​
• SF + 3%​
Dublin North
• FF – 3%​
• FG – 13%​
• L + 2%​
• G – 1%​
• SF – 4%​
Dublin North Central
• FF – 3%​
• FG – 6%​
• L + 1%​
• G + 3%​
• SF + 1%​
Dublin North East
• FF – 5%​
• FG – 7%​
• L + 4%​
• G + 1%​
• SF + 8%​
Dublin North West
• FF ± 0%​
• FG – 18%​
• L + 14%​
• G – 4%​
• SF + 13%​
Dublin South
• FF – 2%​
• FG – 2%​
• L – 3%​
• G + 8%​
• SF – 10%​
Dublin South Central
• FF – 9%​
• FG – 13%​
• L + 18%​
• G + 4%​
• SF + 10%​
Dublin South East
• FF – 8%​
• FG – 6%​
• L + 8%​
• G + 14%​
• SF – 5%​
Dublin South West
• FF – 6%​
• FG – 10%​
• L + 13%​
• G – 2%​
• SF + 8%​
Dun Laoghaire
• FF – 7%​
• FG – 9%​
• L + 15%​
• G + 1%​
• SF + 3%​
Galway East
• FF – 2%​
• FG + 7%​
• L – 13%​
• G – 7%​
• SF – 10%​
Galway West
• FF – 4%​
• FG – 7%​
• L + 2%​
• G ± 0%​
• SF – 9%​
Kerry North
• FF – 11%​
• FG 0​
• L – 1%​
• G – 6%​
• SF + 21%​
Kerry South
• FF + 3%​
• FG – 4%​
• L + 1%​
• G – 7%​
• SF – 9%​
Kildare North
• FF – 5%​
• FG – 8%​
• L + 14%​
• G + 2%​
• SF – 3%​
Kildare South
• FF + 3%​
• FG – 11%​
• L + 12%​
• G + 1%​
• SF ± 0%​
Laoighis Offaly
• FF + 8%​
• FG – 2%​
• L – 14%​
• G – 7%​
• SF – 6%​
Limerick East
• FF + 3%​
• FG – 3%​
• L – 3%​
• G – 5%​
• SF – 7%​
Limerick West
• FF + 1%​
• FG + 7%​
• L – 10%​
• G – 6%​
• SF ± 0%​
Longford Westmeath
• FF – 3%​
• FG ± 0%​
• L + 7%​
• G – 7%​
• SF – 8%​
Roscommon Leitrim South
• FF – 6%​
• FG + 3%​
• L – 4%​
• G – 5%​
• SF + 1%​
Louth
• FF – 4%​
• FG – 3%​
• L – 10%​
• G + 3%​
• SF + 11%​
Mayo
• FF – 11%​
• FG + 18%​
• L – 10%​
• G – 8%​
• SF – 6%​
Meath East
• FF – 4%​
• FG – 5%​
• L + 7%​
• G – 3%​
• SF – 6%​
Meath West
• FF + 2%​
• FG – 3%​
• L – 11%​
• G + 5%​
• SF + 5%​
Sligo Leitrim North
• FF – 5%​
• FG + 5%​
• L – 12%​
• G – 4%​
• SF + 5%​
Tipperary North
• FF – 5%​
• FG + 6%​
• L – 2%​
• G – 6%​
• SF – 7%​
Tipperary South
• FF – 1%​
• FG – 9%​
• L + 5%​
• G – 2%​
• SF + 2%​
Waterford
• FF – 1%​
• FG – 4%​
• L + 1%​
• G – 4%​
• SF – 2%​
Wexford
• FF – 3%​
• FG ± 0%​
• L + 2%​
• G – 7%​
• SF – 2%​
Wicklow
• FF – 5%​
• FG – 6%​
• L + 8%​
• G + 5%​
• SF – 3%​
 


msteiner

Active member
Joined
Nov 20, 2010
Messages
112
I didn't exactly clarify. These ratings signify the advantages/disadvantages for each party by constituency.
 

davehiggz

Well-known member
Joined
May 7, 2009
Messages
1,115
Very Impressive, although I'm lost as to how useful it might be. Would it be accurate at predicting seats at the next general election or will the Fianna Fáil meltdown just skew everything?
 

bagel

Well-known member
Joined
May 7, 2007
Messages
1,379
I studied Statistics for one semester a few short years ago but i'm having difficulty understanding what your results actually mean.

In the case of Galway East, your calculations are as follows:

• FF – 2%

• FG + 7%

• L – 13%

• G – 7%

• SF – 10%

Does the above mean that in recent GE's, 2007 in particular, the vote for Zanu FF was down 2% on the national average?
Similarly, was the FG vote 7% above the national average, etc, etc?

I'd appreciate further explanation please.
 

dail usher

Member
Joined
Jul 23, 2005
Messages
68
Good work, tho I am amazed it too you two hundred hours to do.... is there a reason why you don't have a Dublin West set of figures and why you didn't give figures for independents/others?

As far as I can work out this is the amount in percentage that the party vote in each constituency varied from the national vote for that party. The system is based on the Cook index which gave an index for each congressional district constructed from averaging the variation from the national vote for each party in the presidential elections. In what is effectively a binary system that index is easier to calculate as its basically a zero sum gain - not sure of its applicability here tho
 


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