Sunday Business Post Red C Poll 6/5/07

CorkHurler

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FF 37 +2
FG 26 - 1
Lab 12 +1
PD 2
Gr 8
SF 8

As i have to return to the canvass I will leave it to other to interpret the results. Suffice to say that it confirms what I have been thinking for the last few days the election in the country is a lot different from the one in the media.
 


FutureTaoiseach

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Are you sure these are the results? I recall around the time of the last Red C poll mistaken results were posted by a contributor to this forum, which prompted me to point that out?

If FF is indeed +2, that would suggest a mini-backlash to Bertiegate II. It would also show that the current govt can't yet be written off. Normally FF decline during a General Election campaign. If, as now, they are actually going up in the polls, then I think the established pre-conceptions about the fate of FF and FG in terms of polling-accuracy may have to be thrown out the window.

46% for the opposition? Here comes the rainbow
Eh....not so fast. FF-SF are 45%. And then there's the FF gene-pool Indos. It aint over till the fat lady sings. :wink:
 

Jim84

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I've more fate in the Red C poll ... Think this is fair snapshot of the mood out there on the door
 

Fr. Hank Tree

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FutureTaoiseach said:
Are you sure these are the results? I recall around the time of the last Red C poll mistaken results were posted by a contributor to this forum, which prompted me to point that out?

If FF is indeed +2, that would suggest a mini-backlash to Bertiegate II. It would also show that the current govt can't yet be written off. Normally FF decline during a General Election campaign. If, as now, they are actually going up in the polls, then I think the established pre-conceptions about the fate of FF and FG in terms of polling-accuracy may have to be thrown out the window.
Only in Ireland :roll:
 

Rocky

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FutureTaoiseach said:
Are you sure these are the results? I recall around the time of the last Red C poll mistaken results were posted by a contributor to this forum, which prompted me to point that out?

If FF is indeed +2, that would suggest a mini-backlash to Bertiegate II. It would also show that the current govt can't yet be written off. Normally FF decline during a General Election campaign. If, as now, they are actually going up in the polls, then I think the established pre-conceptions about the fate of FF and FG in terms of polling-accuracy may have to be thrown out the window.

46% for the opposition? Here comes the rainbow
Eh....not so fast. FF-SF are 45%. And then there's the FF gene-pool Indos. It aint over till the fat lady sings. :wink:
So you've given up on FF/PD's getting back into government then?
 

FutureTaoiseach

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Rocky said:
FutureTaoiseach said:
Are you sure these are the results? I recall around the time of the last Red C poll mistaken results were posted by a contributor to this forum, which prompted me to point that out?

If FF is indeed +2, that would suggest a mini-backlash to Bertiegate II. It would also show that the current govt can't yet be written off. Normally FF decline during a General Election campaign. If, as now, they are actually going up in the polls, then I think the established pre-conceptions about the fate of FF and FG in terms of polling-accuracy may have to be thrown out the window.

46% for the opposition? Here comes the rainbow
Eh....not so fast. FF-SF are 45%. And then there's the FF gene-pool Indos. It aint over till the fat lady sings. :wink:
So you've given up on FF/PD's getting back into government then?
Nope 21 days left. Even if this poll is 1% off, we could get 6 seats - remember the Greens in 2002?

Just hearing on Saturday View now that the PDs are likely to pull out of govt. So you never know we could end up part of a Rainbow. :)
 

livingstone

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Well, your leader has ruled out doing business with anyone other than FF or FG...so no...it's FF or no one.
 

The Analyser

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livingstone said:
Well, your leader has ruled out doing business with anyone other than FF or FG...so no...it's FF or no one.
Looks like no-one, then. :cry:
Hello election, goodbye PDs.
 

CJH

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CorkHurler said:
FF 37 +2
FG 26 - 1
Lab 12 +1
PD 2
Gr 8
SF 8

As i have to return to the canvass I will leave it to other to interpret the results. Suffice to say that it confirms what I have been thinking for the last few days the election in the country is a lot different from the one in the media.
Where did you get this from?
 

Anorakphobia

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"Corkhurler is saying nothing more at this time, all these questions will be answered in the SBP".
 

Paddylekker

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Two things:

1. This poll is almost identical to the one published in the Irish Examiner this morning. One point difference for labour and a couple of points further down the card.

2. I would be very surprised if this poll leaked this early in the day. The SBP certainly don't want the other Sunday newsapers getting it for their first editions.
 

CJH

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If it is true, it is hilarious. What happened to the meltdown in the FF vote the blueshirts kept promising us? Were they...were they making it all up :?:

Say it ain't so :cry:
 

ergo

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leaving aside all the media generated noise about transactions fifteen years ago, could we concentrate on protecting the progress and job growth over the last ten years?.

We depend and need further investment from outside the country - that will be harder to secure without a Fianna Fail led government - the alternative is a coalition of at least three parties with conflicting policies.

If the reports of this poll are correct, it reflects what ordinary people, as opposed to media and political anoraks, are thinking.
 

beardyboy

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It is far too early in the campaign - a good salesman puts in the effort at the end of the sales cycle not the start - it is a long haul yet.

PD's re definitely panicking, I feel that FG need to keep on a steady course for if they make one slip FF will be all over them, let FF make the running and watch for slips should be there strategy
 

The Analyser

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On 37% FF would lose circa 15 seats. It would be the lowest FF starting total in an election since 1926. The equivalent poll totals five years ago was 48%.

If FF is STARTING 11 points down on where they started in the last election, that is meltdown territory. During campaigns FF usually drops from the starting polls. If they drop below 35% at the end they will be in the low sixties in seat totals, and could hit the high fifties, if they get bad breaks with transfers.

It shows how bad things are for FF when they think a humiliating 37% is good!!! :roll:
 

Paddylekker

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CJH said:
If it is true, it is hilarious. What happened to the meltdown in the FF vote the blueshirts kept promising us? Were they...were they making it all up :?:

Say it ain't so :cry:
What FPV vote do you actually think FF will get CJH?

Because FF were so very good in 2002 with their vote management even a three percentage point loss would mean a lot of seats going south.

I'm not trying to be antagonistic, just wondering what you think would be a 'par' FPV score this year.
 

CJH

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Paddylekker said:
CJH said:
If it is true, it is hilarious. What happened to the meltdown in the FF vote the blueshirts kept promising us? Were they...were they making it all up :?:

Say it ain't so :cry:
What FPV vote do you actually think FF will get CJH?

Because FF were so very good in 2002 with their vote management even a three percentage point loss would mean a lot of seats going south.

I'm not trying to be antagonistic, just wondering what you think would be a 'par' FPV score this year.
I'm not canvassing (too much study to do) so I don't know how things are going. I fully expect FF to lose seats, and if they get the same as in 1992 and 1997 they would be happy.

I'm not saying this is a good poll result for FF as such, but after a week when the media and the opposition have been telling us that FF have imploded, to actually increase their share over the previous poll (IF THIS IS CORRECT) is fairly remarkable
 

sydney07

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FG and Lab have consistently stated its all about the trends in the poll if this is right and FF are going up not down some trend
 


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