Sunday Business Post Red C Poll 6/5/07

grassroots

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CorkHurler said:
FF 37 +2
FG 26 - 1
Lab 12 +1
PD 2
Gr 8
SF 8

As i have to return to the canvass I will leave it to other to interpret the results. Suffice to say that it confirms what I have been thinking for the last few days the election in the country is a lot different from the one in the media.
Poll looks t o be overtaken by events. PDs on the cusp of leaving Govt. New revelations about Bertie coming in SIndo tomorrow and complete melt down in FF campaign.
 


CJH

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grassroots said:
CorkHurler said:
FF 37 +2
FG 26 - 1
Lab 12 +1
PD 2
Gr 8
SF 8

As i have to return to the canvass I will leave it to other to interpret the results. Suffice to say that it confirms what I have been thinking for the last few days the election in the country is a lot different from the one in the media.
Poll looks t o be overtaken by events. PDs on the cusp of leaving Govt. New revelations about Bertie coming in SIndo tomorrow and complete melt down in FF campaign.
:lol:

It's not the Candyman you know. Just cos you keeping saying it, it doesn't mean it's going to happen
 

FutureTaoiseach

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Grassroots unless the allegations are really serious i.e. illegal, I think the evidence suggests that Bertiegate II may well backfire on the Opposition. We've had saturation coverage of this story already last Autumn. I agree with you on one level tho - our leaving govt could have an unpredictable affect on our standing.

If the PDs leave government, and FG/Lab/Greens rule them out, the PDs will be f*cked
Not necessarily - SF is doing okay despite everyone ruling them out.

On 37% FF would lose circa 15 seats. It would be the lowest FF starting total in an election since 1926. The equivalent poll totals five years ago was 48%.
This old chestnut again. Just because you say it doesn't make it true. You are forgetting that the Republic is not one giant constituency - it is 43 separate ones - 3-seaters, 4-seaters and 5-seaters. It's what happens at this level that matters in terms of winning/losing seats. The effect of a swing to FG in a constituency can be neutralised by the party splitting the vote between 2 many candidates. In a 3-seater, incumbents are very hard to oust - especially when the Opposition to FF are so fragmented between 4 - or maybe after today - 5 (or 6 if the Socialist Party is included) - different parties. Hence the recent local polls showing a swing to FG but the failure to do what really matters i.e. actually take more seats. You need to read up on our electoral-system dear.

Hopefully this will help. In 1997, when FG last had 55 seats, they got them in many cases by running fewer candidates in key constituencies than they are running in 2007. Examples:

Carlow-Kilkenny:
1997: 2 candidates - 2 FG TDs elected
2007: 3 candidates - unlikely to improve on 1.

Dublin South:
1997: 2 candidates - 2 FG TDs elected
2007: 3 candidates

Dún Laoghaire:
1997: 2 candidates - 2 FG TDs elected
2002: 3 candidates - 0 FG TDs elected
2007: 3 candidates - :roll:
 

sydney07

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I agree with FutureTaoiseach look at Cork South Central FG vote up to 26% yet they are not going to get the 2nd seat because they have 3 candidates madness
 

beardyboy

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FutureTaoiseach said:
Grassroots unless the allegations are really serious i.e. illegal, I think the evidence suggests that Bertiegate II may well backfire on the Opposition. We've had saturation coverage of this story already last Autumn. I agree with you on one level tho - our leaving govt could have an unpredictable affect on our standing.

If the PDs leave government, and FG/Lab/Greens rule them out, the PDs will be f*cked
Not necessarily - SF is doing okay despite everyone ruling them out.

[quote:3nqih35i]On 37% FF would lose circa 15 seats. It would be the lowest FF starting total in an election since 1926. The equivalent poll totals five years ago was 48%.
This old chestnut again. Just because you say it doesn't make it true. You are forgetting that the Republic is not one giant constituency - it is 43 separate ones - 3-seaters, 4-seaters and 5-seaters. It's what happens at this level that matters in terms of winning/losing seats. The effect of a swing to FG in a constituency can be neutralised by the party splitting the vote between 2 many candidates. In a 3-seater, incumbents are very hard to oust - especially when the Opposition to FF are so fragmented between 4 - or maybe after today - 5 (or 6 if the Socialist Party is included) - different parties. Hence the recent local polls showing a swing to FG but the failure to do what really matters i.e. actually take more seats. You need to read up on our electoral-system dear.[/quote:3nqih35i]

You have a very good argument - but if the PD party gets ostracised by the others in the next Dail are they not rendered obsolete? Is the next election going to be more difficult. Remember they have been able to use their position to maintain a public profile way above the level that their vote would warrant. If sidelined in the next Dail this prominence will drop and so I would argue their votes.

The strategists in the other parties must be thinking this
 

The Analyser

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FutureTaoiseach said:
This old chestnut again. Just because you say it doesn't make it true. You are forgetting that the Republic is not one giant constituency - it is 43 separate ones - 3-seaters, 4-seaters and 5-seaters. It's what happens at this level that matters in terms of winning/losing seats. The effect of a swing to FG in a constituency can be neutralised by the party splitting the vote between 2 many candidates. In a 3-seater, incumbents are very hard to oust - especially when the Opposition to FF are so fragmented between 4 - or maybe after today - 5 (or 6 if the Socialist Party is included) - different parties. Hence the recent local polls showing a swing to FG but the failure to do what really matters i.e. actually take more seats. You need to read up on our electoral-system dear.
Your inability to understand the basics of Irish electoral politics, history and mathematics, never ceases to amaze. Continue in your dillusions if you wish. Your illinformed ramblings are as irrelevant as your party.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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If sidelined in the next Dail this prominence will drop and so I would argue their votes.
I think it would be a double-edged sword. That would be a risk but on the other hand it could be a blessing in disguise if it allowed us freer rein than at present to carve out a larger "liberal" niche in Irish politics - if necessary with a new leader if the current one doesn't perform adequately in the election (tho I'm a fan). Also remember that the problem as far as the PDs were concerned in 1992 was Albert Reynolds and the row with O'Malley. Bertie is unlikely to continue to lead FF if it ends up in Opposition. As such that could remove a key obstacle to an eventual new alliance with FF in advance of the 2012 GE. Even if it didn't, if we get the votes and the seats on the basis of our platform the other parties will have to reckon with us whether they like it or not. Personally I would like to see the party take more demonstrative "liberal" positions on economic matters and also social-matters (other than immigration). Privatisation and tax-cuts and reducing the burden of red-tape on Irish business should be part of this, but so too should the separation of church-and-state e.g. in education, gay-marriage etc. Combine that with a greater emphasis on protecting Irish sovereignty from EU integration, and I think you could have a highly attractive cocktail - especially for younger voters who are more open to non-civil war politics.
 

jayblue

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any polls tomorrow are now not worth the print today, if the pd's pull out of government this is going to have a knock effect and the election will be wide open, my only fear is that knowing how stupid the irish public are, they could end up feeling sorry for Bertie and give him a majority
 

Decko

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jayblue said:
any polls tomorrow are now not worth the print today, if the pd's pull out of government this is going to have a knock effect and the election will be wide open, my only fear is that knowing how stupid the irish public are, they could end up feeling sorry for Bertie and give him a majority
you said it - my fear as well
 

Paddylekker

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CJH said:
Paddylekker said:
CJH said:
If it is true, it is hilarious. What happened to the meltdown in the FF vote the blueshirts kept promising us? Were they...were they making it all up :?:

Say it ain't so :cry:
What FPV vote do you actually think FF will get CJH?

Because FF were so very good in 2002 with their vote management even a three percentage point loss would mean a lot of seats going south.

I'm not trying to be antagonistic, just wondering what you think would be a 'par' FPV score this year.
I'm not canvassing (too much study to do) so I don't know how things are going. I fully expect FF to lose seats, and if they get the same as in 1992 and 1997 they would be happy.
In 1992, FF got 68 seats on 39.1 per cent of the FPV.

In 1997, FF got 78 seats on 39.3 per cent of the FPV.

The FPV only jumped by 0.2 per cent but they picked up 10 seats. The reason for this is because in 1997 FF got a large number of transfers.

Then in 2002, FF got 81 seats on 41.5 per cent of the FPV.

So in 2002 they picked up an extra 2.2 per cent in FPV but only got three extra seats. That was 10 times the increase they saw in their vote in 1997 yet they only picked up just over one quarter of the increase in seats they saw in the same year.

If FF score 37 or so per cent (and I think most Fianna Failers think the final score will be in the 37-38 per cent region) they'll be significantly worse off than they were in 1992 with a result in the early to mid 60s in terms of seats.

That would be a very bad result but certainly not a meltdown. If they drop to 35-36 per cent then it will start looking really horrific for them.
 

The Analyser

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jayblue said:
any polls tomorrow are now not worth the print today, if the pd's pull out of government this is going to have a knock effect and the election will be wide open, my only fear is that knowing how stupid the irish public are, they could end up feeling sorry for Bertie and give him a majority
On current numbers, given their loss of PD transfers once both parties divorce, and Labour's marriage now to someone else, FF would need to increase their support by 10% to have any chance of a majority. They nearly got one in 2002 because of the availability of transfers, but political realignments since will close off those. In addition, while the crisis will see FF going up, as FFers who had drifted away rally to the party flag, the loss of transfers through a greater FF versus the rest feeling will hit them hard. Remember back in the 1990 presidential election, even though the tape controversy brought a rally to Lenihan, the loss was thanks to the fact that he became transfer-repulsive, with the 'anyone but FF' voters all transferring among themselves, allowing Robinson to win on transfers.

Ahern has spent a decade making FF transfer-friendly. That is in serious danger of being undone, recreating the old 'FF versus the rest' division.
 

The Analyser

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Paddylekker said:
CJH said:
Paddylekker said:
CJH said:
If it is true, it is hilarious. What happened to the meltdown in the FF vote the blueshirts kept promising us? Were they...were they making it all up :?:

Say it ain't so :cry:
What FPV vote do you actually think FF will get CJH?

Because FF were so very good in 2002 with their vote management even a three percentage point loss would mean a lot of seats going south.

I'm not trying to be antagonistic, just wondering what you think would be a 'par' FPV score this year.
I'm not canvassing (too much study to do) so I don't know how things are going. I fully expect FF to lose seats, and if they get the same as in 1992 and 1997 they would be happy.
In 1992, FF got 68 seats on 39.1 per cent of the FPV.

In 1997, FF got 78 seats on 39.3 per cent of the FPV.

The FPV only jumped by 0.2 per cent but they picked up 10 seats. The reason for this is because in 1997 FF got a large number of transfers.

Then in 2002, FF got 81 seats on 41.5 per cent of the FPV.

So in 2002 they picked up an extra 2.2 per cent in FPV but only got three extra seats. That was 10 times the increase they saw in their vote in 1997 yet they only picked up one fifth of the increase in seats they saw in the same year.

If FF score 37 or so per cent (and I think most Fianna Failers think the final score will be in the 37-38 per cent region) they'll be significantly worse off than they were in 1992 with a result in the early to mid 60s in terms of seats.

That would be a very bad result but certainly not a meltdown. If they drop to 35-36 per cent then it will start looking really horrific for them.
A very good analysis, Paddy. A number of us have been pointing out those facts for months. Some FFers and FutureTaoiseach have been writing all sorts of rubbish that shows no understanding of Irish electoral history. :cry:
 

Anorakphobia

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I don't fear such a reaction. Fool me once.........
Anyone who would think that allegedly accepting wholesale bungs and using your mistress to deprive your family is laudable is already a FF supporter and probably a Cumann member so not likely to be a floater.

Bertie got a bounce last time for his brilliant Oscar performance that leant heavily on stoking up sympathy for his family situation.
In fact, the current revelations make an abs joke of his "I was only protecting my family" crocidile tears as they clearly reveal that he was trying every stroke to ensure his family didn't get their hands on any of his "supplementary income".
 

grassroots

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Looks like this election is rapidly turning into FF v the rest. Moreover, with the leader looking increasingly toxic, I would predict that a large element of the FF core vote abstains when reality dawns that Bertie shared similar traits to his old master CJH, albeit on a much lower level. I would predict a 35% FPV for FF.

I thinks we shall see the "Berties Team" posters disappearing over the week-end and FF TDs effectively running as independents. Its already happening in Dun Laoghaire wher MH and BA are fighting like rabid dogs for a dimininishing pool of vote.

FF will get crucified in Dublin and in the commuter belt.
 

Paddylekker

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In comparison, FG picked up a 3.4 per cent increase in FPV vote in 1997 - an increase that was 17 times that achieved by Fianna Fail in the same election but still John Bruton managed to pick up less seats (9) than Bertie Ahern (10).
 

Fr. Hank Tree

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FutureTaoiseach said:
Fr. Hank Tree said:
If the PDs leave government, and FG/Lab/Greens rule them out, the PDs will be f*cked
Not necessarily - SF is doing okay despite everyone ruling them out.
Sinn fein's vote is a protest vote. The PDs are a niche smoothie urban vote that's croosing to FG and the greens. No one will vote for a party so inconsequential to the outcome of the election
 

Reality bites

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While im sure eveyone loves reading again and again and again differnet analyses of differnet polls, would it not be wise to ensure that only polling data confirmed by a polling company be posted. With so many various polls going to be published in the coming weeks its going to be really annoying if people continually post up false/altered data to cause a bit of controvesry. COuld the mods do something about this?

There is no doubt that the SBP would not have leaked their numbers yet. And since many of the est hacks here havn't got that data its doubtful the above figures are true.

Its obvious FF numbers will harden up as supporters rally to the cause, the big story will be tranfer repellance.
 

Paddylekker

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I'd be a little bit worried if I were FG, not very worried, just a little bit.

The PDs good performance in the last election in terms of seats (despite continuing loss of FPV) was because FG votes defected to them in the final couple of days of the campaign to a large extent.

McDowell going ballistic over the next couple of weeks as an opposition leader could stop some of them drifting back.
 

Paddylekker

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Reality bites said:
While im sure eveyone loves reading again and again and again differnet analyses of differnet polls, would it not be wise to ensure that only polling data confirmed by a polling company be posted. With so many various polls going to be published in the coming weeks its going to be really annoying if people continually post up false/altered data to cause a bit of controvesry. COuld the mods do something about this?

There is no doubt that the SBP would not have leaked their numbers yet. And since many of the est hacks here havn't got that data its doubtful the above figures are true.
This is why I'm not analysing the poll data, merely showing what putative results would mean.
 


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