Sunday Business Post Red C Poll 6/5/07

vid

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no 3 seat in mayo or 2 in galway east due to bad vote management.
 


vid

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and no 2 seats in roscommon south leitrim. votes dont swim across countries in connacht.ellis will survive because leitrim people will do anything to keep their td. it seems that list is wildly optimistic.more chance of willing the lotto than gaining all those seats
 

Iarmhi Gael

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grassroots said:
NickyG said:
But, again, where are the extra 25 TDs coming from?
Seeing ask you ask
Louth FGfrom FF
Meath lab extra seat
Laois Offaly Fg from PD/FF
Carlow/Kilkenny FG/Green from FF
Wicklow Green from Indo
Kildare S FG from FF
Dublin N FG from FF
Dublin NE FG from FF
Dublin NC Lab from FF
Dublin S FG from PD
dublin SE FG from FF/PD
Dublin SW FG from FF
Dublin SC Lab/Green from FF
Dun Laoighaire FG from FF/PD
Dublin MW Lab extra seat
Mayo FG from Indo
Roscommon/Leitrim FG from FF
Sligo Leitrim Fg from FF
Galway E FG from Indo
Galway W Green from PD
Limerick E Fg from FF
Cork SW FG from FF
Cork SC FG from FF
Tipp N FG from FF
Cork E FG from FF
Kerry S FG from indo
Cavan monaghan FG from Indo

offsetting this will be loss of Donegal SW to Shinners
May I also add a gain for FG in Longford Westmeath

FG are in a strong position to get 2 seats in this consituency.
 

pfkf

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Oct 3, 2006
Messages
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Iarmhi Gael said:
grassroots said:
NickyG said:
But, again, where are the extra 25 TDs coming from?
Seeing ask you ask
Louth FGfrom FF
Meath lab extra seat
Laois Offaly Fg from PD/FF
Carlow/Kilkenny FG/Green from FF
Wicklow Green from Indo
Kildare S FG from FF
Dublin N FG from FF
Dublin NE FG from FF
Dublin NC Lab from FF
Dublin S FG from PD
dublin SE FG from FF/PD
Dublin SW FG from FF
Dublin SC Lab/Green from FF
Dun Laoighaire FG from FF/PD
Dublin MW Lab extra seat
Mayo FG from Indo
Roscommon/Leitrim FG from FF
Sligo Leitrim Fg from FF
Galway E FG from Indo
Galway W Green from PD
Limerick E Fg from FF
Cork SW FG from FF
Cork SC FG from FF
Tipp N FG from FF
Cork E FG from FF
Kerry S FG from indo
Cavan monaghan FG from Indo

offsetting this will be loss of Donegal SW to Shinners
May I also add a gan for FG in Lonford Westmeath

FG are in a strong position to get 2 seats in this consituency.
I might also add that FG are looking for 2 seats in Dun laoghaire, and ousting o mally and andrews, with Barrett and Bailey.

and just about the poll tomorrow, just like the PD's completey irrelevant after tonights events, Remember a vote for FF is vote Cowen as Taoiseach, and FF in with SF, the only viable option is FG/L
 

Limerick Lad

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Nov 17, 2006
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grassroots said:
NickyG said:
But, again, where are the extra 25 TDs coming from?
Seeing ask you ask
Louth FGfrom FF
Meath lab extra seat
Laois Offaly Fg from PD/FF
Carlow/Kilkenny FG/Green from FF
Wicklow Green from Indo
Kildare S FG from FF
Dublin N FG from FF
Dublin NE FG from FF
Dublin NC Lab from FF
Dublin S FG from PD
dublin SE FG from FF/PD
Dublin SW FG from FF
Dublin SC Lab/Green from FF
Dun Laoighaire FG from FF/PD
Dublin MW Lab extra seat
Mayo FG from Indo
Roscommon/Leitrim FG from FF
Sligo Leitrim Fg from FF
Galway E FG from Indo
Galway W Green from PD
Limerick E Fg from FF
Cork SW FG from FF
Cork SC FG from FF
Tipp N FG from FF
Cork E FG from FF
Kerry S FG from indo
Cavan monaghan FG from Indo

offsetting this will be loss of Donegal SW to Shinners
Don't know about any of the other seats but Limerick East is more likely to to be a FG gain from the PDs, Tim O'Malley is on the way out
 

Iarmhi Gael

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Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,840
pfkf said:
Iarmhi Gael said:
grassroots said:
NickyG said:
But, again, where are the extra 25 TDs coming from?
Seeing ask you ask
Louth FGfrom FF
Meath lab extra seat
Laois Offaly Fg from PD/FF
Carlow/Kilkenny FG/Green from FF
Wicklow Green from Indo
Kildare S FG from FF
Dublin N FG from FF
Dublin NE FG from FF
Dublin NC Lab from FF
Dublin S FG from PD
dublin SE FG from FF/PD
Dublin SW FG from FF
Dublin SC Lab/Green from FF
Dun Laoighaire FG from FF/PD
Dublin MW Lab extra seat
Mayo FG from Indo
Roscommon/Leitrim FG from FF
Sligo Leitrim Fg from FF
Galway E FG from Indo
Galway W Green from PD
Limerick E Fg from FF
Cork SW FG from FF
Cork SC FG from FF
Tipp N FG from FF
Cork E FG from FF
Kerry S FG from indo
Cavan monaghan FG from Indo

offsetting this will be loss of Donegal SW to Shinners
May I also add a gan for FG in Lonford Westmeath

FG are in a strong position to get 2 seats in this consituency.
I might also add that FG are looking for 2 seats in Dun laoghaire, and ousting o mally and andrews, with Barrett and Bailey.

and just about the poll tomorrow, just like the PD's completey irrelevant after tonights events, Remember a vote for FF is vote Cowen as Taoiseach, and FF in with SF, the only viable option is FG/L
The most obvious move is as you say FF / SF Would do SF a world of good and set them up as a serious force in future elections - Much to he demise of FF imo
 

FutureTaoiseach

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greatdearleader.blogspot.com
Interestingly from the poll:

What is of particular interest in this poll is the analysis of those who are most likely to actually vote at the election. This shows FF in an even stronger position than among all voters, with first preference support of 38 per cent.

At the same time, FG support slips back among this key group to 25 per cent. With the election date set for May 24, a decision about whether one is likely to vote will be pretty much made at this stage - as such, the analysis of potential vote behaviour among this key group is more important than ever.
 

pfkf

Member
Joined
Oct 3, 2006
Messages
71
FutureTaoiseach said:
Interestingly from the poll:

What is of particular interest in this poll is the analysis of those who are most likely to actually vote at the election. This shows FF in an even stronger position than among all voters, with first preference support of 38 per cent.

At the same time, FG support slips back among this key group to 25 per cent. With the election date set for May 24, a decision about whether one is likely to vote will be pretty much made at this stage - as such, the analysis of potential vote behaviour among this key group is more important than ever.
As stated before this poll is irrelevant after tonights events
 

The Analyser

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Jan 17, 2007
Messages
115
FutureTaoiseach said:
Here we go again - bogus and oversimplistic comparisons of polls with different methodologies. Red C's national polls are telephone-polls. Name me one telephone-poll in 2002 that had FF on 48% and you're comparison might have some validity. ICM was the only telephone-poll for the General Election last time and it never had FF anywhere near 48%. The face-to-face polls did. Wake up.
:lol: :lol: The usual half-baked ramblings from FT, Mr 2%. :oops: The man who makes Keith's neanderthal ramblings almost sound semi-coherent in comparison.
 

Best of the West

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Messages
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vid said:
and no 2 seats in roscommon south leitrim. votes dont swim across countries in connacht.ellis will survive because leitrim people will do anything to keep their td. it seems that list is wildly optimistic.more chance of willing the lotto than gaining all those seats
Ellis is in serious trouble here. The most likely outcome is a loss of his seat to Kenny, who seems to be getting stronger and stronger. This leaves Leitrim with a TD. Feighan will poll well and it will be no surprise if he snaps up the last seat for FG.
 

Best of the West

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grassroots said:
NickyG said:
But, again, where are the extra 25 TDs coming from?
Seeing ask you ask
Louth FGfrom FF
Meath lab extra seat
Laois Offaly Fg from PD/FF
Carlow/Kilkenny FG/Green from FF
Wicklow Green from Indo
Kildare S FG from FF
Dublin N FG from FF
Dublin NE FG from FF
Dublin NC Lab from FF
Dublin S FG from PD
dublin SE FG from FF/PD
Dublin SW FG from FF
Dublin SC Lab/Green from FF
Dun Laoighaire FG from FF/PD
Dublin MW Lab extra seat
Mayo FG from Indo
Roscommon/Leitrim FG from FF
Sligo Leitrim Fg from FFGalway E FG from Indo
Galway W Green from PD
Limerick E Fg from FF
Cork SW FG from FF
Cork SC FG from FF
Tipp N FG from FF
Cork E FG from FF
Kerry S FG from indo
Cavan monaghan FG from Indo

offsetting this will be loss of Donegal SW to Shinners

The last seat in Sligo/North Leitrim will be contested between Scanlon (FF) and MacManus (SF)
 

Norfolk Enchants

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Messages
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CorkHurler said:
FF 37 +2
FG 26 - 1
Lab 12 +1
PD 2
Gr 8
SF 8

As i have to return to the canvass I will leave it to other to interpret the results. Suffice to say that it confirms what I have been thinking for the last few days the election in the country is a lot different from the one in the media.
Ah, so this poll is right but the previous one is wrong. Thanks for confirming that Cork Hurler :roll:
 

politic

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My Thoughts

Don't know if I've posted on here before. I don't agree that the polls published this weekend are irrelevant after the weekend's PD fiasco. That was a last throw of the dice for them, hoping the old adage of "Any publicity is good publicity" is true and that they might by a miracle hold onto more than 3 seats!

I don't see this affecting the Fianna Fail vote more than the original "allegations" which have only slightly dented their vote, if at all.

There's no doubt that this election is going to be good for Fine Gael, bad for Fianna Fail, pretty much status quo (slight gain I suppose) for Labour. People are also focusing heavily on the Green sentiment that's taking over across the world. Of course they are going to gain a number of seats but it's Sinn Fein who have been tipping away in the National Scheme of things, but focusing hard locally. Their well-oiled political machine from Northern elections is starting to become more evident in their contesting of Southern elections and they look like going from 5 representatives to 9/10, which will be the biggest percentae increase in terms of seats gained, for the second election in a row.

With the PD vote effectively gone, they will be irrelevant. And anyone with a historical look at Irish politics must see that Fianna Fail's vote won't disintegrate enough to give Fine Gael/Labour/Greens a majority over Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein. Maybe the greens might end up in there with FF/SF, as they haven't committed themselves to any alliance.


But, all this talk could become completely irrelevant, and one week after the election we may see Pat Rabbitte resigning, Ruairi Quinn or Liz McManus in as Tanaiste in a FF/Labour coalition that is guaranteed a majority!
 

FutureTaoiseach

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Considering that the PD seat-tally in 1997 (4 seats) was actually 2.7% of the Dail (on 4.7% of the vote) - while the same vote got us 10 seats in 1992, while a decline to 4% doubled our seats, it just goes to show that even if we did get 2%, you never know how many seats we'd get. Personally I expect 5/6 seats. Despite the continuing penchant of our critics for chiselling away with our obituary (hands must be knackered now after 20 yrs) at every election, even they can't accurately predict how we will do.
 

politic

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That is a valid point but you've taken such a hammering in the last few months, and the campaign doesn't seem to be kind to you, specially with someone as unlikeable as McDowell leading now, compared to the somewhat better Harney.
You should know you're in big trouble when a PD candidate, even an O'Malley, can't take a seat in Limerick!
Could be seriously looking at 3 seats i think.
 


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