Sunday Independent: only 45% want election if Lenihan takes over

rubensni

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A poll in today's Sunday Independent claims that only 45% of people would want an election when Brian Cowen goes and is (presumably) replaced by Brian Lenihan. The Quantum Research telephone poll was of 500 people across he nation. Here are they key findings:

Form the next government:
FF-FG 10%
FF-Lab 21%
FG-Lab 62%
Lab-SF 7%

  • People prefer Lenihan to Michael Martin by a greater than 2:1 margin to be the next leader of FF (70%:30%)
  • 70% of those asked believe Cowen was hungover during the infamous Morning Ireland interview
  • 77% of those polled felt Cowen was wrong to be up socialising until 3:30 the night before the interview
  • 65% of those polled felt Covney was wrong to tweet that Cowen "sounded somewhere between drunk and hungover" the morning of the interview
  • 55% of those polled said any new taoiseach should be given an opportunity to solve the country's economic problems; 45% said a General Election should be called immediately

I think that poll is very biased as I do not believe for a second that a healthy majority of the public are in favour of a third FF taoiseach in this Dáil taking office without calling an election, particularly on the basis laid out in the poll question: that any new taoiseach should be given an opportunity to solve the country's economic problems. The key fact is Lenihan has been Minister for Finance for some time now, and although he's a competent and consummate politician, he has been incapable of turning the economy around since taking the job.
 
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Tony Soprano

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This is the same paper who told us that Brian Cowen was the natural successor to bertie ahern.
This is the same paper who told us that Brian Cowen was a man of strong intellect
This is the same paper who told us that Brian Cowen would destroy Enda Kenny in dail debates
This is the same paper who told us that Brian Cowen would turn the economy around

And it looks as if this peper will have its way, and get Lenihan into the top job.

But remember this folks----Brian Lenihan is the biggest bluffer EVER to grace the office of Minister for Finance. If he takes over i belive we'll have truly lost our marbles!!
 

wombat

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But remember this folks----Brian Lenihan is the biggest bluffer EVER to grace the office of Minister for Finance. If he takes over i belive we'll have truly lost our marbles!!
Lenihan is a triumph of form over substance. He's a very good lawyer, absolutely convincing in advocating his case. Unfortunately, his case has been prepared for him by the same people who advised Cowen and Ahern.
 

foreignfield80

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I say good, let the most over rated individual in cabinet have the top job so that he can be seen for the spoofer he is, he will only get away with spinning on the economy for so long until he is turned on too.
Make it so.
 

Tomas Mor

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Quite obvious now O' Reilly has dumped on Biffo over not backing Waterford glass. This another famous Sindo "poll" tells us that 77% believe Biffosuffered from hangover, and 65% thought Coveney was wrong to tweet he sounded so. Very Irish I must say-shoot the messenger who was not first in with it by the way.
 

Aristodemus

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I belive that poll. Anecdotally, all I hear supports the main thrust of it. A lot of people are so gullible to think it is a matter of style over substance. If you ask them what policy Lenihan would change to make things better they can't come up with one. He is the architect of the current mess.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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Well that's what the Constitution says. Deal with it. Lenihan could do more by clearing out the FF-statists from the Cabinet. The poll reflectrs the fact that the people blame Cowen not Lenihan as the recession cannot be blamed on a man that wasn't even a full Cabinet Minister when it started.
 

the_rebubblican

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Some people are so mind f**cked that the thought of FF not being in government is akin to the disappearance of the catholic church. I can see a scenario where Lenihan if sidles into Cowen's warm seat without a fight, it will improve the mood in FF. They'll go to the polls in the Spring anyway after a punitive budget with a bounce in their step knowing that of all the options available that they'll do as well as could be expected. They'll lose but on the opposition benches their mission will be to rebuild the party with their saviour. If they think that they can continue with Lenihan or Martin in control until 2012 they will entirely as a group collectively mock and undermine the democratic mandate and the sanctity of the Dáil as the embodiment of the will of the people. There'll be hell to pay and pay it they will.
 

rubensni

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Well that's what the Constitution says. Deal with it...
The constitution also says a Dail term is 7 years. If they changed the law to get four more years of taking "hard decisions" from today, would we be expected to just "deal with it" too? I think not.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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The constitution also says a Dail term is 7 years. If they changed the law to get four more years of taking "hard decisions" from today, would we be expected to just "deal with it" too?
Well it wouldn't be quite four years. But if the Oireachtas legislated to serve out the remainder of a 7 year term, then the answer again is "deal with it - it's in the Constitution". ;)
 

PUFF DADDY

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This is the same paper who told us that Brian Cowen was the natural successor to bertie ahern.
This is the same paper who told us that Brian Cowen was a man of strong intellect
This is the same paper who told us that Brian Cowen would destroy Enda Kenny in dail debates
This is the same paper who told us that Brian Cowen would turn the economy around

And it looks as if this peper will have its way, and get Lenihan into the top job.

But remember this folks----Brian Lenihan is the biggest bluffer EVER to grace the office of Minister for Finance. If he takes over i belive we'll have truly lost our marbles!!
You are bang on here. What is it with the media and the love for Lenihan etc..It is a joke. He is now so much part of the problem in particular over the last 2yrs and I am sorry his health is an issue etc. I am beginning to think keep cLowen in there till after the budget and then lets have our election. Though, if there is an election this side of the budget, the new govt need to lay it on the table how bad things are, when they finally get to look at the FF ledgers.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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77% of those polled felt Cowen was wrong to be up socialising until 3:30 the night before the interview.
3:30 in the morning. :roll:
 

Ulster-Lad

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Is there a link to this poll? I can't seem to find it. Also a poll of only 500 people would not be representative IMO.
 

rubensni

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DCon

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This poll smells.

When was it conducted? How did Sir Anto know that Lenihan was even an option then..
 

Limerick Lad

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This poll smells.

When was it conducted? How did Sir Anto know that Lenihan was even an option then..
Quantum Research seems to only conduct polls on behalf of the Independent Group and very little information if any is available about them.
 

Catalpa

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This is the same paper who told us that Brian Cowen was the natural successor to bertie ahern.
This is the same paper who told us that Brian Cowen was a man of strong intellect
This is the same paper who told us that Brian Cowen would destroy Enda Kenny in dail debates
This is the same paper who told us that Brian Cowen would turn the economy around

And it looks as if this peper will have its way, and get Lenihan into the top job.

But remember this folks----Brian Lenihan is the biggest bluffer EVER to grace the office of Minister for Finance. If he takes over i belive we'll have truly lost our marbles!!
Brain Lenihan is so far ahead of any other politician in LH it would be a walkover for him.

But he is not well and his illness at this moment is still with him.

Whether he would be up to the job for more than a few months is open to question.

If he takes over now I would expect him to be there in a caretaker capacity and put his energies into getting the budget through and calming the markets

-if he can.

General Election in the early Spring looks the most likely outcome right now.

If Mr Lenihan does lead FF into it then the best they can expect is a damage limitation exercise as they will take very heavy losses.

If we had a 'Presidential' style of election of the Taoiseach then Brian Lenihan would win it by a landslide over someone of the calibre of Enda Kenny or Eamon Gilmore.
 

Chrisco

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Also a poll of only 500 people would not be representative IMO.
Of course it is, just with a bigger margin of error.

It is interestnt though, that they didn't publish the voting intention question, which wad surely asked.
 

firefly123

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Brain Lenihan is so far ahead of any other politician in LH it would be a walkover for him.

If Mr Lenihan does lead FF into it then the best they can expect is a damage limitation exercise as they will take very heavy losses.

If we had a 'Presidential' style of election of the Taoiseach then Brian Lenihan would win it by a landslide over someone of the calibre of Enda Kenny or Eamon Gilmore.
I would disagree with you there. I think he might wipe the floor with Enda but I think a head to head between him and Gilmore on a Primetime debate would be a sight to behold. As long as Miriam stay neutral of course.
I believe he is being shielded from criticism somewhat due to his illness which is understandible but I dont think the nation can afford to do that for much longer.:(
 


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