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Sunday Times Poll 31/3/13




Dame_Enda

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I suspect DDI are in the Independents somewhere. Pollsters tend not to include parties that never had TDs.

25% for Independents. Wow. Clearly the public are losing patience with the Establishment parties. Time for something new.

Bad poll for the Left especially. Labour on half the vote of SF!
 

harshreality

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FG and independents celebrating, everyone else crying into their skinny lattes.
 

the secretary

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this poll probably is as you would expect. these figures are around where I think the parties are
 

RobertW

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This is now the point being reached by the Labour Party. . .

 

Frank Galton

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The government might want to consider a poll tax.
 

Dame_Enda

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One point. Labour on 5% in 1987 still won 12 seats. So it might not be quite an extinction event.
 

rockofcashel

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Fine Gael 27 (+1)
Fianna Fail 23 (-1)
Labour 7 (-4)
Sinn Fein 15 (-4)
Greens 2 (-1)
Independents 25 (+7)
Which is pretty much what I would expect the results to be based on the Meath East result...

There were no independents in Meath East that had a chance in a two horse race, so a huge contingent of voters (the ones who voted FG/Lab last time out but didn't this time out) stayed away from the polls altogether

Had Meath East been a full election, and had there been a decent Indo candidate, then they would have picked up a big chunk of votes.

What does it say about the parties ?

FG - That the win in Meath East was because of the core turning out, and a big chunk of what they got in the last GE was soft floaters who are looking for somewhere else to go.. but still do not want to go to FF or SF

FF - That the result in Meath East overstates any huge comeback, and when it becomes more than a two horse race, FF won't be getting anywhere near 33% in an election

SF - There core is in and around 13/15% (most likely 13% based on the Presidential and ME result)

Labour - Are in huge trouble

Independents - Good Indo candidates are going to get very good chances of being elected in the next election. The locals will be very good for Indo's
 

Spanner Island

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One point. Labour on 5% in 1987 still won 12 seats. So it might not be quite an extinction event.
They'll still hold onto seats in urban areas...

The eFFing traitors might manage something in rural Ireland but urban areas and Dublin in particular will be their wasteland...
 

Dame_Enda

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When was this poll taken?

If before the by-election it's possible Labour has further to fall.

If after the by-election could be a factor.

If both then it could be both.
 

rockofcashel

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I suspect DDI are in the Independents somewhere. Pollsters tend not to include parties that never had TDs.

25% for Independents. Wow. Clearly the public are losing patience with the Establishment parties. Time for something new.

Bad poll for the Left especially. Labour on half the vote of SF!
I doubt the DDI have any real traction in the Independent vote.. outside of a lot of political aroraks, no one knows who they are.. but the publicity from Meath East gives them a huge opportunity to garner a decent portion of that vote that doesn't want to vote FG/FF/SF or Labour

As of now, the parties with most to worry from the DDI are FF and SF, especially SF, because they may provide a lightening rod for protest voters and discontentment
 

Mentalist Clientelist

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I suspect DDI are in the Independents somewhere. Pollsters tend not to include parties that never had TDs.

25% for Independents. Wow. Clearly the public are losing patience with the Establishment parties. Time for something new.

Bad poll for the Left especially. Labour on half the vote of SF!

How can you say that after the byelection results this week?

The public clearly are still sticking with the establishment parties.
 

turdsl

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Both the Sunday Times and the Red C did detect the drop in support for Sinn Fein,fairly accurately.
.
 
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The independents' rise should, on the face of it, be a cause for hope. But in the Irish political context it is anything but - populist me feinism and pothole politics (potholitics?) means a vehicle for the right where the left should be cleaning up. Quite frankly we just don't have the quality of left candidates in Ireland that are necessary, plus we have a lot of narcissism and factionalism. The left should be utterly in the ascendant now after the triumphant vindication of their refusal to accept the deranged neo-liberal consensus, but instead we have allowed the Right to frame the agenda (and the explanations for what happened) and to set the scene for more catastrophe in years to come.
 

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