Sunday Times Poll: SF Rise Continues, FG and FF Down

bokuden

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Such polls are pretty useless but the trend of polls over a period of a year are much more informative.
indeed. Fg have levelled out at 30 percent. FF are stagnant and even beginning to slip at 25 per cent, and SF are steadily rising. If SF overtake FF for a few polls, I think the momentum will affect FF and voters will begin to desert them. FF should be very worried about this.
 


Nordie Northsider

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There was some speculation that SF's stance on Repeal would hurt them, particularly in rural areas. If anything, I think it's part of their rise in the polls. For a long time commentators accused the party of populist opportunism, disappearing when hard decisions had to be made. Well, here was an issue that had the potential to damage their support and yet they accepted the challenge with a forthrightness clearly absent in the case of FF. If I were an FF candidate in Dublin I'd be very worried.
 

bokuden

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There was some speculation that SF's stance on Repeal would hurt them, particularly in rural areas. If anything, I think it's part of their rise in the polls. For a long time commentators accused the party of populist opportunism, disappearing when hard decisions had to be made. Well, here was an issue that had the potential to damage their support and yet they accepted the challenge with a forthrightness clearly absent in the case of FF. If I were an FF candidate in Dublin I'd be very worried.
Indeed. Sf have really stepped up as the one party squarely behind the repeal movement, and Mary Lou macDonald has become the dail's articulate voice on the issue. That's not to say that others heven't stood up on the issue. Micahel martin is to be commended on this, but he was too weak to push a whip on this half his party have cynically used this to undermine his authority. A few in FG have stood up to push for it as well, apart from the craven opportunist that is Varadakr who was too scared to push a whip on this issue, thus leaving it up to SF to get the peopsed legislation over the line, if repeal is passed. I believe these factors contribute to why FG is treading water in the polls.
 

Herr Rommel

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Fine Gael's lack of heavyweights in Government makes me cringe but I personally trust them a lot more than FF or SF i.e. I have more faith in them overall to run the country.
One of the true heavyweights of the Blueshirts jacked it in yesterday.

Dara Murphy double his body weight since his election.
 

Barroso

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The FG & Labour vote overlapped many times over the years with the arty smoked salmon socialists & the wanna be artists in FG sliding back and forth between FG & Labour. During the years when FF were in government the protest vote slipped back FG & L as the only alternative to FF.

Now SF are added to the left wing mix and FG traditionally go into bed with the left.

This is all we are seeing here. A simple rejigging of the old FG/Labour/Democratic left coalition.
In the absence of a real alternative SF are taking a piece of the old Labour and disaffected FG protest votes.

When the voters want to punish FG of FF they voted for the opposition. In this case SF being the primary opposition party.

FF are a corrupt party that supports the current FG government. If people want to punish FG they won't vote FF since they are the very reason FG are in government. FF therefore are unlikely to gain from the usual anti-government protest vote come election time. It would be a case of tweedle dum or tweedle dee. The voters do want something different and sadly all they have is SF / Labour on the left to deal with the terrible health services, housing supply and rack rents. No party on the right seems able to deal with these issues.
If SF were to get 24% in an election (a very big if at this point in time) they would be higher than Labour ever were. Labour's highest vote was 21.3% in 1922; the next best were 19.5% in 2011 and 19.3 in 1992 - the only times since 1981 that they exceeded their usual 9% to 11%. Including those two outliers, the average vote for the Labour party in the last 40 years is a smidgen under 11%.

In other words, SF are already well above the average Labour vote in the last 40 years. They are aiming at being the second largest party, and then the largest.

They are not aiming at being FG's mudguard.

ps. FG didn't traditionally go into bed with the left: they went into bed with anyone who would let them in.
FG remained very rightwing despite this; and Labour became a rightwing party by osmosis as a result.
 

Barroso

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indeed. Fg have levelled out at 30 percent. FF are stagnant and even beginning to slip at 25 per cent, and SF are steadily rising. If SF overtake FF for a few polls, I think the momentum will affect FF and voters will begin to desert them. FF should be very worried about this.
It looks as though FF is beginning to be affected by what we could call the Unionist syndrome: by failing to modernise in time, they are left with an older voting demographic which will now die off faster than they will be replaced.

The young will move towards SF, with the more radical minority going to Solidarity/PBP.
 

bokuden

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It looks as though FF is beginning to be affected by what we could call the Unionist syndrome: by failing to modernise in time, they are left with an older voting demographic which will now die off faster than they will be replaced.

The young will move towards SF, with the more radical minority going to Solidarity/PBP.
You'd have to ask why anyone under 40 would vote for ff. They offer literally nothing to younger people.
 

rockofcashel

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You'd have to ask why anyone under 40 would vote for ff. They offer literally nothing to younger people.
Familial loyalty.. a feeling that it might progress a political career.. thinking it might help you get you "looked after" down the road.

But increasingly younger people of a "republican" background, who would in times past have supported FF, now seem to be supporting SF.

Mary Lou herself is probably the perfect example of this... there are now tens of thousands of "Mary Lou's" joining or at least voting for SF, whereas a generation ago, they'd be in FF
 

jmcc

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You'd have to ask why anyone under 40 would vote for ff. They offer literally nothing to younger people.
FF moreso than FG is Ireland's Tory party. Right now, it is more like Thatcher's Tory party of the 1980s without a Thatcher (or even a comb-over). It still has a very strong local government element and it has turned clientism into an artform. That's why people still vote FF. Also there's a trust issue with FG that is likely to cause massive problems over the next year or so.
 

Degeneration X

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It feels high. But. The Behaviours poll can point to them getting 15% on SF prior to the last election and the party getting 14%.

And if you think about it: There's no one else getting those ex Labour voters. There is a left leaning section of the population. They don't like Labour. FF and FG aren't left wing. SF are. 1/4 of the population voting for a left leaning party in the absence of viable alternatives? Doesn't seem impossible.

But the trend at this point seems undeniable, and that's what's more important to focus on. As was predicted by people for years: Getting shot of Adams has led to a real bounce for SF, and they're eating into FF's support.
The decline in the PBP/Solidarity vote is also helping them, no doubt.
 

Degeneration X

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The reality is that beyond a small bunch of hardcore Labourites, there is no "Labour vote". There's a floating vote that oscillates between the main parties but it is not a "Labour vote".

The danger of seeing things in a simplistic black and white perspective is that it misses what is happening with SF. SF is becoming more centrist. It is displaying disinct signs of Fianna Failness.
True but traditionally in the ROI (until after the 2011 election) there was an FF vote and an anti-FF vote, Labour was merely the secondary anti-FF party often slipping into the tertiary spot.
 

DaveM

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Lots of factors here with SF. The IRA leadership slips into retirement to be replaced by a new, young generation with women front and centre. A drift away from protest towards mainstream pragmatism - more votes to be nibbled of FF's left buttock than Sol-PDP's skinny right haunch. FF still struggling for an identity that would make a new young voter choose them.

FG have had a pretty damaging few weeks with the cervical cancer scandal but the polls out today will have FF fretting far more than anyone else. If SF eclipse them at the polls it's hard to see a way back.
 

Degeneration X

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Lots of factors here with SF. The IRA leadership slips into retirement to be replaced by a new, young generation with women front and centre. A drift away from protest towards mainstream pragmatism - more votes to be nibbled of FF's left buttock than Sol-PDP's skinny right haunch. FF still struggling for an identity that would make a new young voter choose them.

FG have had a pretty damaging few weeks with the cervical cancer scandal but the polls out today will have FF fretting far more than anyone else. If SF eclipse them at the polls it's hard to see a way back.
FF do tend to confound opinion polls though.
 

im axeled

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did not mary lou state on tv when the cervical cancer crisis broke, tat their immediate priority was the referendum, with that out of the way their attention would be the smear scandal, if so then the coming weeks may well be frought with problems for the goverment
 

Al.

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It's probably time for Martin to hire someone to taste his food before he eats
If Putin-style politics come to any part of the island, it'll come to the whole island.
 


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