Sunday Times/RedC leadership poll

gijoe

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Who would your preference for Taoiseach be in a FG/LAB government?

Gilmore 26; Bruton 25; Kenny 19; Noonan 9; Varadkar 6; Burton 5; DK 10.


Who would you like to see succeed Brian Cowen as FF leader?

Lenihan 28; Martin 23; Hanafin 18; Dempsey 5; Dermot Ahern 5; DK 21.

In the case of the FF poll it really does show that the public have taken the blinkers off on Lenihan, he is down 10% whereas Martin is up 5% and Hanafin 10% from a comparable poll in October.
 


Keith-M

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Who would your preference for Taoiseach be in a FG/LAB government?

Gilmore 26; Bruton 25; Kenny 19; Noonan 9; Varadkar 6; Burton 5; DK 10.


Who would you like to see succeed Brian Cowen as FF leader?

Lenihan 28; Martin 23; Hanafin 18; Dempsey 5; Dermot Ahern 5; DK 21.

In the case of the FF poll it really does show that the public have taken the blinkers off on Lenihan, he is down 10% whereas Martin is up 5% and Hanafin 10% from a comparable poll in October.
Just show how FG made the wrong decision sticking with Kenny. Given the current poll numbers is a "rotating Taoiseach" a possibility? Poll after poll shows Gilmore as the preferred choice.

As for FF, the wind is clearly behind Hanafin. Ahern is gone and Dempsey may not even stand next time out. Lenihan is severly damaged goods. It's Martin or Hanafin and they should make the change before the election.
 

disgruntledcitizen

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Just show how FG made the wrong decision sticking with Kenny. Given the current poll numbers is a "rotating Taoiseach" a possibility? Poll after poll shows Gilmore as the preferred choice.
leaving aside the 1 point difference between Gilmore and Kenny, what makes people think that Gilmore would be any better than Kenny ? sure he's a better speaker, quick with the sound bite, a far better media performer, but what about actually leadership ability ? the ability to make tough and unpopular decisions ? the ability to stand up to labours own vested interest groups (the unions, etc)?

frankly nothing i've seen of Gilmore makes me think of him as any more of a populist than Bertie was.
 

Tomas Mor

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why was other great leader who will be in next Dail not included - Gerry Adams ? He would probably top the poll.
 

meriwether

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Given the current poll numbers is a "rotating Taoiseach" a possibility? Poll after poll shows Gilmore as the preferred choice.
This may be difficult for you to comprehend...........but Taoisigh are not elected via 'leader satisfaction' ratings in opinion polls.

What happens in this country is that 166 things called 'TD's' are elected. They then elect something called a 'Taoiseach' in a big building called a 'Dail'. This is because Ireland has a system called 'representative democracy'. This differs from the US electoral model where a President is directly elected in a straight vote.

Are you with me so far? I understand this can be confusing for those of modest abilities.

Another easy to understand contrast between 'leader satisfaction ratings' and 'electing the Taoiseach' is that once upon a time, a woman called Mary Harney had 60% satisfaction rating, the highest of all leaders at that time. Her party won 4 seats - one of the lowest of all parties at that time.
Mary Harney did not become Taoiseach. Can you guess why?

I hope this is clear.
 

Keith-M

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leaving aside the 1 point difference between Gilmore and Kenny, what makes people think that Gilmore would be any better than Kenny ? sure he's a better speaker, quick with the sound bite, a far better media performer, but what about actually leadership ability ? the ability to make tough and unpopular decisions ? the ability to stand up to labours own vested interest groups (the unions, etc)?
There's a 7 point diffference between Gilmore and Kenny. Poll after poll has show a miserable satisfaction level with Kenny and Gilmore getting at least twice the satisfaction levels. It's not my opinion that matters, it's the public's.

frankly nothing i've seen of Gilmore makes me think of him as any more of a populist than Bertie was.
I don't disagree, but we'll only discover what he's really made of during the election and after.
 

meriwether

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There's a 7 point diffference between Gilmore and Kenny. Poll after poll has show a miserable satisfaction level with Kenny and Gilmore getting at least twice the satisfaction levels.
Except the above. 26 is not double 19. 38 is double 19. 38 is not 26.

This is basic stuff at this stage
 

hiding behind a poster

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Except the above. 26 is not double 19. 38 is double 19. 38 is not 26.

This is basic stuff at this stage
:lol: Interesting figures, anyway - the FG figures total almost twice the Labour figures, which seems to indicate fairly clearly which PARTY the voters want leading the next government. And it ain't Labour.
 

Keith-M

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Except the above. 26 is not double 19. 38 is double 19. 38 is not 26.

This is basic stuff at this stage
Re-read my post I was clearly referring to the satisfaction levels that Gilmore and Kenny get. Gilmore has twice the satisfaction levels of Kenny. The fact that Kenny isn't even the preferred FG candidate for Taoiseach shows what a liability he is to the party.
 

wombat

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Except the above. 26 is not double 19.
Arithmetic is not a strong point on the internet.
Personally, although I would prefer Bruton as leader, I would rather have Kenny as Taoiseach with Bruton as a minister, preferably in charge of public service where he could drive the needed reform.
 

DuineEile

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This may be difficult for you to comprehend...........but Taoisigh are not elected via 'leader satisfaction' ratings in opinion polls.

What happens in this country is that 166 things called 'TD's' are elected. They then elect something called a 'Taoiseach' in a big building called a 'Dail'. This is because Ireland has a system called 'representative democracy'. This differs from the US electoral model where a President is directly elected in a straight vote.

Are you with me so far? I understand this can be confusing for those of modest abilities.

Another easy to understand contrast between 'leader satisfaction ratings' and 'electing the Taoiseach' is that once upon a time, a woman called Mary Harney had 60% satisfaction rating, the highest of all leaders at that time. Her party won 4 seats - one of the lowest of all parties at that time.
Mary Harney did not become Taoiseach. Can you guess why?

I hope this is clear.
Dripping with sarcasm, but funny and accurate as far as our system goes.


The US system is not direct democracy though. The States elect representatives to an electoral college, who elects the US President.

D
 

hiding behind a poster

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Re-read my post I was clearly referring to the satisfaction levels that Gilmore and Kenny get. Gilmore has twice the satisfaction levels of Kenny.
Let's look again at what you said:

Poll after poll has show a miserable satisfaction level with Kenny and Gilmore getting at least twice the satisfaction levels.
Which polls?

Also, I remember back in 2007, you were banging on constantly about how low Kenny's approval ratings were at the time - but they were higher then, than Gilmore's are now? And not a dicky-bird from you about that.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Dripping with sarcasm, but funny and accurate as far as our system goes.


The US system is not direct democracy though. The States elect representatives to an electoral college, who elects the US President.

D
No, they don't elect those representatives - what happens is that their votes determine what those representatives, who are already in position, do when they have a vote for President.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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Keith-M said:
Just show how FG made the wrong decision sticking with Kenny. Given the current poll numbers is a "rotating Taoiseach" a possibility? Poll after poll shows Gilmore as the preferred choice.
Maybe Bruton would perform better with the public but in a PR-STV electoral-system it's not enough to be "the preferred" leader if only a small minority supports you and if you can't (as shown in Donegal) translate it into votes. Mary Harney and Pat Rabbitte as leaders of their respective parties demonstrated that personal-popularity doesn't always translate into support for their parties.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Just show how FG made the wrong decision sticking with Kenny. Given the current poll numbers is a "rotating Taoiseach" a possibility? Poll after poll shows Gilmore as the preferred choice.
Right, lets say FG get 60 seats, and Labour get 40. Do you seriously think the Labour team can go into negotiations with FG saying "well some approval ratings in a paper show our leader higher than yours, so we'd like a "rotating Taoiseach"".

They'd get a two-word answer. The second word being "off".
 

Baron von Biffo

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Who would your preference for Taoiseach be in a FG/LAB government?

Gilmore 26; Bruton 25; Kenny 19; Noonan 9; Varadkar 6; Burton 5; DK 10.


Who would you like to see succeed Brian Cowen as FF leader?

Lenihan 28; Martin 23; Hanafin 18; Dempsey 5; Dermot Ahern 5; DK 21.

In the case of the FF poll it really does show that the public have taken the blinkers off on Lenihan, he is down 10% whereas Martin is up 5% and Hanafin 10% from a comparable poll in October.
Poor Kenny must go into shell shock every time he hears the words 'opinion poll' at this stage.
 


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