Sunday Times Referendum Poll: Yes surge in Urban areas

Sync

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If the Sunday Times poll had been published first, followed by the Irish Times poll, the Yes side would be in panic. The haemorrhaging of support would be painfully obvious.
The Irish Times Poll was 44 Yes, 32 No, 17 Undecideds, 7 not voting. So of those likely to vote, 47 Yes, 34 No, 18 Undecided. Or 58 Yes - 42 No decided.

It also emphasised that the vast majority of decideds weren't up for changing their minds at all.

This is a binary vote. 51 Yes - 49 No is still a win. There isn't really a single crumb of comfort in any of the polls from the last month to make someone rationally thing there's going to be 51% voting No.

I'm not saying it can't happen: I'm saying there's nothing at all to support that view in any of the polls.
 


libertarian-right

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The polls show Dublin vote at 67% yes
Wow just as high as the SSM polling in the last week in May 2015? I've harping on about this but if the turnout is good in Dublin and other urban areas - this is comfortably won but not as high as 62%. As Sync has stated - Today is the first day I can say "Yes is on track to win this." If the Don't Knows were higher I wouldn't be saying this.
 

shanieboy01

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I am not surprised. I no longer live in ireland. I watched claire byrne yesterday and if i was on the fence i would have come down on the yes side. The no side came across like its a joke and a point scoring exercise.
This is a serious matter and i am surprised that anyone thought the yes side lost the debate. My prediction is 57%
 

popular1

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The polls show Dublin vote at 67% yes
Polls. How did they conduct them
Did they knock on people's doors
Like we have been doing fir 3 weeks
And getting 50-50
I was at the doors talking to people
We will see
 

General Urko

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Beautiful sunny day temperatures 16-19 degrees across the country, augurs well for a high turnout.
Wasn't the second divorce referendum won mainly because not enough redneck farmers could be arsed to go out and vote on what a very wet day!
 

Wallander82

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It's all over folks. The game is up. The repealers are going to win. The country is doomed. Ireland is going to join the ranks of the post-Christian nations of Europe. It was always going to happen I suppose. Such is the trend in the Western world. Perhaps the pro life campaigners back in 1983 like William Binchy knew as much, and that the insertion of the Amendment was a delaying tactic.

Delaying the inevitable. But then again as the conservative Lord Salisbury once said: "delay is life." And that has most certainly been the case with the Eighth Amendment. It's delay of the inevitable has saved lives. Not that that matters of course. Who cares about saving human lives, it's all about "My Body My Choice" now, "Personal Autonomy", "Abortion Care".

Ah well, I'll accept defeat. I'll still vote No on the 25th, but I've no faith in Ireland anymore. I suppose I'll draw some solace from the fact that the good people of Roscommon, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal and other rural counties will vote No, but just like the economy it's all about Dublin. The Big Smoke. And Dublin will vote Yes.

Sin é. Oíche mhaith.
 

General Urko

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I wonder what would have been the consequence if there had never been such an 8th amendment or if it was defeated or the Blueshirt Wording was accepted at the time instead of Haughey's bollex acting?

I actually think that The Theocratic State actually began to dissipate a little after it was passed because single women began to be treated with a bit more compassion in general!
 

gerhard dengler

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It's all over folks. The game is up. The repealers are going to win. The country is doomed. Ireland is going to join the ranks of the post-Christian nations of Europe. It was always going to happen I suppose. Such is the trend in the Western world. Perhaps the pro life campaigners back in 1983 like William Binchy knew as much, and that the insertion of the Amendment was a delaying tactic.

Delaying the inevitable. But then again as the conservative Lord Salisbury once said: "delay is life." And that has most certainly been the case with the Eighth Amendment. It's delay of the inevitable has saved lives. Not that that matters of course. Who cares about saving human lives, it's all about "My Body My Choice" now, "Personal Autonomy", "Abortion Care".

Ah well, I'll accept defeat. I'll still vote No on the 25th, but I've no faith in Ireland anymore. I suppose I'll draw some solace from the fact that the good people of Roscommon, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal and other rural counties will vote No, but just like the economy it's all about Dublin. The Big Smoke. And Dublin will vote Yes.

Sin é. Oíche mhaith.
Hmmmm.

I dunno. I've done a bit of canvassing and the amount of don't knows cannot be ignored. Now whether "don't know" actually means "get away from my door, I've made up my mind but I ain't telling ye" or "I'm voting for the other side, but out of politeness I'm indulging ye", I've no idea. "Don't know" could mean both and/or the voter has not made up their own mind. Who really knows?

If Ireland decides that it wants to remove the constitutional protect for the unborn, then the fate of the unborn becomes a political bargaining chip. (my own view is that the fate of the unborn has already become a political bargaining chip).

I've yet to witness any answer from the other side which better protects the wellbeing of the unborn and the pregnant mother, than the 8th.
If there is a better protection for both the unborn and their pregnant than the 8th amendment, I'd like to hear it from the other side.
 

constitutionus

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The Irish Times Poll was 44 Yes, 32 No, 17 Undecideds, 7 not voting. So of those likely to vote, 47 Yes, 34 No, 18 Undecided. Or 58 Yes - 42 No decided.

It also emphasised that the vast majority of decideds weren't up for changing their minds at all.

This is a binary vote. 51 Yes - 49 No is still a win. There isn't really a single crumb of comfort in any of the polls from the last month to make someone rationally thing there's going to be 51% voting No.

I'm not saying it can't happen: I'm saying there's nothing at all to support that view in any of the polls.
And yet the Irish Times itself put a caevaet in saying no referendum with a polling rate between 51 and 58% has ever passed on the day

Im not surprised by these polls. In fact its the norm
 

Wagmore

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the anti-Abortion side won that debate hands down.
sadly, however, it may not swing that many votes.

now, if 'whistling past the graveyard' could swing votes for the NO side, nobody would whistle louder & longer & more sweetly than me.
no point in ignoring reality.
all the indicators are that the Amendment will be passed.

the only hope is that the youth vote won't turn up.
sadly, I think sufficient of them will.

that poll is very depressing.
They want No voters to be depressed. Less likely to bother voting if you think there's no point.
 

libertarian-right

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It's all over folks. The game is up.

Sin é. Oíche mhaith.
Globally abortion is called upon by pregnant women, regardless of the legal context - A practice as old as medicine itself.
The no side have no answer for the women who cannot or will not carry forward with their pregnancies. Ireland is no different to any other country - abortions have occurred pre 83 and post 83.

That is not to say we cannot look forward to a future where modern medical science has progressed to a point where our lives are so healthy and fulfilled across the spectrum of society that we only hear about abortions in extreme cases of sickness/death or FFA.
 

arsenal

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The Irish Times Poll was 44 Yes, 32 No, 17 Undecideds, 7 not voting. So of those likely to vote, 47 Yes, 34 No, 18 Undecided. Or 58 Yes - 42 No decided.

It also emphasised that the vast majority of decideds weren't up for changing their minds at all.

This is a binary vote. 51 Yes - 49 No is still a win. There isn't really a single crumb of comfort in any of the polls from the last month to make someone rationally thing there's going to be 51% voting No.

I'm not saying it can't happen: I'm saying there's nothing at all to support that view in any of the polls.
The thing I am cautious about is that yes is only just over the threshold of 50%. No voters are older and tend to be much stronger in rural areas, these demographics always turn out to vote and no voters will turn out irrespective of the possible result.Some yes voters may not turn out thinking it is in the bag. This reason I assume may have contributed to a lower yes vote in 2015,as some of does who said yes in opinion polls never bothered turning up. If we take half way between the 2 polls today yes is on 54, with increased pressure applied by the no side it is just about do able that they can nick it,especially if Harris were to put in a really poor showing on Tuesday night. Remember about a third of yes voters are really reluctant yes voters so if some decide not to show or to switch late on the no side can win.
 

arsenal

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Trump phenomenon suggests polls can be rigged to say anything you want them to say.
Trump got elected with polling being out by one polling error (3% range). The bigger problem was not the polling but the inability of newspapers and broadcasters to correctly interpret and present the date. Check out the 538 website subsection on the 2016 election with analysis pieces.
 

forest

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This comparison to trump is ridiculous not only is it a different country different election but also a different electoral system based on college votes
 

gooner

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I won't lie, those polls are not good.

Hope I'm wrong but I can't see much positive in them.

It's not what I'm getting at the door and from my own experience and the people I canvass with, it's very much in the balance who wins.

Around the City Centre today in Cork, the place was covered with Yes badges and some repeal jumpers too. Billy Kelleher and Dr Mary Favier were out on the canvass on the street. The support was out there.

Who knows, the polls could be out and I do think there is shy No vote out there. How much is another thing. Nevertheless the polls would have to be out by a lot and I'm not so sure they are by this big amount for the No side to win.

The Irish Times poll was encouraging and I was still of the feeling up until then that this was winnable for the No side.

Now I have strong doubts.

Unbiased view when I say this.
 
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forest

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Very much feel the same way I just can't see how the no side can win this I was encouraged by the polls during the week and in the last month, but I feel that the gap is too wide for no to recover . I feel it all over
 

Dame_Enda

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The Red C and B+A poll are very similar to each other. I think it will be around a 60% yes.
 

libertarian-right

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I am not surprised. I no longer live in ireland. I watched claire byrne yesterday and if i was on the fence i would have come down on the yes side. The no side came across like its a joke and a point scoring exercise.
This is a serious matter and i am surprised that anyone thought the yes side lost the debate. My prediction is 57%
This is what a lot of undecided people said to me also. They turned it off as it was a tit-for-tat point scoring exercise. The no side of course were delighted with this as they had more points scored but cheering/clapping/laughing at a sensitive topic like this won't sway voters to your side, only reaffirm your own beliefs.
 


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