- Aug 27, 2009
The Irish Times Poll was 44 Yes, 32 No, 17 Undecideds, 7 not voting. So of those likely to vote, 47 Yes, 34 No, 18 Undecided. Or 58 Yes - 42 No decided.If the Sunday Times poll had been published first, followed by the Irish Times poll, the Yes side would be in panic. The haemorrhaging of support would be painfully obvious.
It also emphasised that the vast majority of decideds weren't up for changing their minds at all.
This is a binary vote. 51 Yes - 49 No is still a win. There isn't really a single crumb of comfort in any of the polls from the last month to make someone rationally thing there's going to be 51% voting No.
I'm not saying it can't happen: I'm saying there's nothing at all to support that view in any of the polls.