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Swing state discussion

Dame_Enda

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The outcome will be decided in a relatively small number of states unless Trump is sufficiently more toxic than Hillary in November. The map below shows the swing states from 2012. All voted for Obama in 2008 and all but NC voted for him in 2012. No Republican has been elected President without Ohio and no Democrat since 1960. Minnesota has not voted GOP since 1972 but was close in 2000 and 2004.



The Ohio primaries have good and bad news for both sides:

Trump:

Good:

- Trump outpolled Hillary by 727,585 votes to 679,266 despite coming second.
- 54% say free trade destroys jobs, 33% that it creates jobs, 8% neither. Trump has attacked trade agreements like NAFTA as job killers.
- 8% of the primary voters were Democrats. 20% said this was their first time voting in a GOP primary. So he may be growing the tent. Trump beat Kasich 50-46 among first timers.
- 65% supported temporarily banning Muslims, 32% opposed.
- 60% are "very worried" and 32% "somewhat worried" about the economy.
- 2,043,043 voted in the GOP primary compared to 1,202,163 votes in the Dem primary. Could suggest more enthusiasm of the GOP side.
- Trump did better in counties that were close in 2008 and 2012 some of which voted Dem in the west and south of the state. This might suggest he is bringing in more Dems.
- Trump outperformed Kasich in the Santorum counties from the 2012 primaries - but quite narrowly.

Bad:
- Kasich defeated Trump 46.8-35.8.
- Kasichs county leads were overall much larger than Trumps and he performed much better in the population centres.
- 54% don't think he's honest and trustworthy while 41% do.
- 57% say illegals should have path to citizenship, 39% disagree.
- 45% would consider third party candidate if Clinton and Trump are the candidates.
- Kasichs leads were much bigger in the core Democrat counties in Northern Ohio. This might suggest hes not as successive with Dems as he thinks - or that its just that Kasich is governor. The jury is out on this.
- Since 1976, the party with the higher presidential primary turnout has only won the popular vote half the time.

For Clinton (Ohio Dem primary voters):

Good:
- 61%of Dems say she is "honest and trustworthy". (its 79% for Sanders though)
- 65% say her positions are "about right", 24% say "not liberal enough",
- 81% say the next president should be "experienced in politics".
- She won 54% of those who said foreign trade takes away jobs, and 65% of those who said it creates jobs.


Bad:
- 53% of Dems say trade takes away jobs. But 54% of this group voted for her. She continues to defend NAFTA while promising a "trade prosecutor" to ensure fair trade in future.
- 34% of Dems "very worried" about the economy and 41% somewhat worried. Against Sanders she got 52% and 42% of them respectively, and 67% of the 20% who are not worried.
- 23% dissatisfied if Clinton is the Dem candidate, 26% satisfied.
- 29% of Dems say her views are "too pro business".
- 36% say no when asked is she "honest and trustworthy".

Here are the counties Trump won in the primary and the ones Clinton won.



Below is voting by county in the 2012 Presidential election.

[/IMG]

Bush's path to victory in 2004 in Ohio was as below. Trump did well in a number of the blue counties not so well by some way in the red ones.

 
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NYCKY

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I think it's tough to extract too much from the Ohio GOP primary as Kasich is a native son. He is a popular second term governor and it was the only state he won.
 

Spanner Island

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Unless Trump starts winning over women voters in significant numbers he hasn't a hope.
 

Dame_Enda

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In the Quinnipiac swing state polls a few days ago, in Ohio Trump leads 51 – 36 percent among men, while she takes women 43 – 36 percent. White voters go Republican 49 – 32 percent, as non-white voters vote Democratic 76 – 14 percent. In Pennsylvania women back Clinton 51 – 32 percent, while men go to Trump 54 – 33 percent. White voters go Republican 48 – 37 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 74 – 14 percent. In Florida she leads among women 48 – 35 percent while Trump leads 49 – 36 percent among men . Independent voters are divided 39 – 39 percent. White voters go Republican 52 – 33 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 63 – 20 percent.

In 2012 53% of the voting electorate were women.
 

GDPR

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In the Quinnipiac swing state polls a few days ago, in Ohio Trump leads 51 – 36 percent among men, while she takes women 43 – 36 percent. White voters go Republican 49 – 32 percent, as non-white voters vote Democratic 76 – 14 percent. In Pennsylvania women back Clinton 51 – 32 percent, while men go to Trump 54 – 33 percent. White voters go Republican 48 – 37 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 74 – 14 percent. In Florida she leads among women 48 – 35 percent while Trump leads 49 – 36 percent among men . Independent voters are divided 39 – 39 percent. White voters go Republican 52 – 33 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 63 – 20 percent.

In 2012 53% of the voting electorate were women.
Seems to me HRC will win in these states but I think it's too long until November and much may change.
 

Dame_Enda

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First May poll in NH shows Hillary only leading by 2% in New Hampshire. Obama won the state by 6% in 2012. Bush won it in 2000. The poll also shows 10% of Sanders supporters will vote for Trump and only 75% of Sanders voters will vote for Hillary. If Romney runs as third party, Hillary wins against Trump 37-34-21. If Sanders is the Dem candidate he defeats Trump by 16%. Also both Hillary and Trump are viewed unfavoyrably by 58% in NH. His favourables are 33% and hers 35%. The RCP average has her ahead 8% in NH but only poll poll was done with Trump as presumptive nominee.

Underlines this is going to be a close election .
 
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GDPR

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First May poll in NH shows Hillary only leading by 2% in New Hampshire. Obama won the state by 6% in 2012. Bush won it in 2000. The poll also shows 10% of Sanders supporters will vote for Trump and only 75% of Sanders voters will vote for Hillary. If Romney runs as third party, Hillary wins against Trump 37-34-21. If Sanders is the Dem candidate he defeats Trump by 16%. Also both Hillary and Trump are viewed unfavoyrably by 58% in NH. His favourables are 33% and hers 35%. The RCP average has her ahead 8% in NH but only poll poll was done with Trump as presumptive nominee.

Underlines this is going to be a close election .
As I said, lots of time for things to change. Sanders may well lose a lot of support if his bros continue to behave like stormtroopers and he'll be seen as a nasty old man with delusions and inability to control his supporters' behaviour.

If it were a Sanders vs Trump for POTUS then it will be pie-in-the-sky vs pie-in-the-sky. Not good for the USA at all.
 

Dame_Enda

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100,000 Dems voted in the GOP primary in Ohio, compared to only 35000 Republicans in the Dem primary. Backs up the argument Trump is growing the tent.
 

Dame_Enda

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New polls Clinton ahead in all.

Florida CBS poll Clinton 43, Trump 42.
Florida Gravis poll Clinton 46, Trump 42
Ohio CBS poll Clinton 44, Trump 39
 

Analyzer

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One should not rule out the possibility that HRC will roll out enough meaningless, dishonest cliches to overcome the capacity of Trump to annoy voters into voting against Trump.

Because more people know what they don't want, than what they want.

Which is an indictment against noth presumptive nominees.
 

owedtojoy

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Are there "Shy Trump supporters" who are disguising their intentions from pollsters?

Harry Enten thinks not. Enten writes on FiveThirtyEight.

Trump Supporters Probably Aren
 

owedtojoy

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New York probably shows up Trump's problem best. A candidate is expected to do well in his home state - like Bush in Texas, or Obama in Illinois. Romney had a problem in that he was Governor of deep blue Massachusetts.

Trump is after all a native New York son, while Clinton is a blow-in. No polling has been done there for a month, yet Clinton led on average in April by +21.7. Trump has never run for election in New York and though well known he has no political base as such. You could compare him to Michael Bloomberg, but Bloomberg never went beyond Mayor of New York City.

I would expect Clinton's lead to shrink in the state, just as Trump has pulled up on her nationally, but by how much?
 

dent

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New York probably shows up Trump's problem best. A candidate is expected to do well in his home state - like Bush in Texas, or Obama in Illinois. Romney had a problem in that he was Governor of deep blue Massachusetts.

Trump is after all a native New York son, while Clinton is a blow-in. No polling has been done there for a month, yet Clinton led on average in April by +21.7. Trump has never run for election in New York and though well known he has no political base as such. You could compare him to Michael Bloomberg, but Bloomberg never went beyond Mayor of New York City.

I would expect Clinton's lead to shrink in the state, just as Trump has pulled up on her nationally, but by how much?
Don't forget there are a fair few Red states in play because of Trump this time, so he'll be fighting a lot of fires, with much less money than Clinton. And of course you can see the damage Sanders is doing, as most of the high profile Democrat supporters can't publicly whip in behind Clinton, for fear of upsetting his supporters. So i would really caution views on the race until we are into a straight race.
 

locke

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If you look at the statewide polling, there are some interesting discrepancies that come up.

Compared to standard GOP nominees, Trump is doing a lot better in the North-East and the Rust Belt.

Clinton is putting in the best Democrat performance in the South since her husband.

Now, while it may be early to take statewide polling all that seriously, it does suggest that regular talk of swing states could be out the window.

States such as Georgia, South Carolina, and Mississippi are polling as though they are in play. However, New Hampshire, Ohio and even Pennsylvania (and possibly even New Jersey, should Trump select Christie to run for VP) could slip the other way.

It's certainly shaping up to be a more nationwide election in 20 years.
 

GDPR

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If you look at the statewide polling, there are some interesting discrepancies that come up.

Compared to standard GOP nominees, Trump is doing a lot better in the North-East and the Rust Belt.

Clinton is putting in the best Democrat performance in the South since her husband.

Now, while it may be early to take statewide polling all that seriously, it does suggest that regular talk of swing states could be out the window.

States such as Georgia, South Carolina, and Mississippi are polling as though they are in play. However, New Hampshire, Ohio and even Pennsylvania (and possibly even New Jersey, should Trump select Christie to run for VP) could slip the other way.

It's certainly shaping up to be a more nationwide election in 20 years.
I doubt that Christie will be an asset in his own state. He has shamed himself.
 

dent

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I doubt that Christie will be an asset in his own state. He has shamed himself.
True, his own favourability numbers have taken a nose dive in the last few months.
 

Dame_Enda

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New York probably shows up Trump's problem best. A candidate is expected to do well in his home state - like Bush in Texas, or Obama in Illinois. Romney had a problem in that he was Governor of deep blue Massachusetts.

Trump is after all a native New York son, while Clinton is a blow-in. No polling has been done there for a month, yet Clinton led on average in April by +21.7. Trump has never run for election in New York and though well known he has no political base as such. You could compare him to Michael Bloomberg, but Bloomberg never went beyond Mayor of New York City.

I would expect Clinton's lead to shrink in the state, just as Trump has pulled up on her nationally, but by how much?
He can be forgiven for not winning NY in a GE as opposed to a primary. There was only a 6% turnout in the GOP primary there. It's around 35% ethnic minority and that makes it uphill struggle for the GOP.
 

livingstone

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If you look at the statewide polling, there are some interesting discrepancies that come up.

Compared to standard GOP nominees, Trump is doing a lot better in the North-East and the Rust Belt.

Clinton is putting in the best Democrat performance in the South since her husband.

Now, while it may be early to take statewide polling all that seriously, it does suggest that regular talk of swing states could be out the window.

States such as Georgia, South Carolina, and Mississippi are polling as though they are in play. However, New Hampshire, Ohio and even Pennsylvania (and possibly even New Jersey, should Trump select Christie to run for VP) could slip the other way.

It's certainly shaping up to be a more nationwide election in 20 years.
The problem for Trump is that he is potentially competitive in blue leaning swing states - while Clinton is potentially competitive in firmly red states, like Georgia and Arizona; and in red leaning swing states like North Carolina.

She has a much wider map - if Trump is forced to play defence in places like Georgia and Arizona (even if he ultimately wins them, as he probably will) then it limits his ability to win in places Pennsylvania.

270towin.com is an interesting site to play around with different state combinations. If you take places which could conceivably be competitive - Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida - you get Clinton starting on 212 EVs (Washington, Oregon, California, New York, New Jersey, Maine, Vermont, Massechussetts, Connecticut, RI, Deleware, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Maryland) and Trump starting on 154 EVs (Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Utah, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kansas, Indiana, West Virginia, South Carolina)

That leaves 172 Swing EVs (possibly more than in previous elections) but it leaves Clinton needing to win 58 out of 172 (34%) but Trump needing 116 (67%). So Trump is starting with the bigger ask.
 

Dame_Enda

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Virginia poll today first one since March shows a tie 38-38. It voted Obama twice before that Republican since 1964. The governor there recently decided to restore the voting rights of 300,000 felons. The poll is by Roanoke college and in 2012 it had a poll in October it had Romney leading 5% so caution. Virginia is around 20% Black and has a lot of public sector workers in its northern counties like Loudon. In the last Roanoke poll in January she was leading 17%.
 
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GDPR

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Virginia poll today first one since March shows a tie 38-38. It voted Obama twice before that Republican since 1964. The governor there recently decided to restore the voting rights of 300,000 felons. The poll is by Roanoke college and in 2012 it had a poll in October it had Romney leading 5% so caution. Virginia is around 20% Black and has a lot of public sector workers in its northern counties like Loudon. In the last Roanoke poll in January she was leading 17%.
300,000 seems a high number of felons (or ex-felons). It is likely their votes may swing the result, if it's close.
 


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