Taper Tantrum?

Volatire

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It's seismic. And it's today. ECB will announce the fate of the ECB QE programme. Mario Draghi has been saving Irish taxpayers as much as €4Bn per year, but asset purchases can't go on forever. Tapering is expected to begin next year.

The ECB balance sheet stands at over $4.5Tn.



If Mario gets it wrong, all hell will break loose in fx, bond and perhaps equity markets. If Mario gets it right, moves will be modest.

The main risks for Ireland are long term bond yields and GBP/EUR.

Announcement at 12:45, press conference at 13:30. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_pc_youtube.en.html

Good luck!
 


gerhard dengler

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Who else is going to buy the bonds which have yet to be issued?

Who else is going to buy the bonds which the ECB/Fed/BOJ/BOE have to sell to reduce their balance sheets?


When the bond market cracks, Hell will be unleashed.
 

gleeful

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It's seismic. And it's today. ECB will announce the fate of the ECB QE programme. Mario Draghi has been saving Irish taxpayers as much as €4Bn per year, but asset purchases can't go on forever. Tapering is expected to begin next year.

The ECB balance sheet stands at over $4.5Tn.



If Mario gets it wrong, all hell will break loose in fx, bond and perhaps equity markets. If Mario gets it right, moves will be modest.

The main risks for Ireland are long term bond yields and GBP/EUR.

Announcement at 12:45, press conference at 13:30. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_pc_youtube.en.html

Good luck!
I have an issue with your graph. A lot of the spikes and drops in the ECB and BOJ lines are due to currency volatility not actual purchases - as the graph is in USD, but the assets are in Euro/Yen. Its a bit misleading.

A better graph would use a basket of currencies.
 

Volatire

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I have an issue with your graph. A lot of the spikes and drops in the ECB and BOJ lines are due to currency volatility not actual purchases - as the graph is in USD, but the assets are in Euro/Yen. Its a bit misleading.

A better graph would use a basket of currencies.
Your stupidity disgusts me.
 

gerhard dengler

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So from Jan 2018, instead of buying €60 billion of bonds/shares/whatever per month, every month, the ECB says it is going to buy €30 billion of bonds/shares/whatever per month, every month, until Sept 2018 instead.

But the ECB can decide to increase €30 billion that it spends it each month, every month, if need be between Jan 2018 and September 2018.
 

Volatire

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So from Jan 2018, instead of buying €60 billion of bonds/shares/whatever per month, every month, the ECB is going to buy €30 billion of bonds/shares/whatever per month, every month, until Sept 2018.

But it can decide to increase €30 billion that it spends it each month, every month, if need be between Jan 2018 and September 2018.
Market calm.

Awesome as usual from the Goldman Sachs man.
 

A Voice

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It's seismic. And it's today. ECB will announce the fate of the ECB QE programme. Mario Draghi has been saving Irish taxpayers as much as €4Bn per year, but asset purchases can't go on forever. Tapering is expected to begin next year.

The ECB balance sheet stands at over $4.5Tn.



If Mario gets it wrong, all hell will break loose in fx, bond and perhaps equity markets. If Mario gets it right, moves will be modest.

The main risks for Ireland are long term bond yields and GBP/EUR.

Announcement at 12:45, press conference at 13:30. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_pc_youtube.en.html

Good luck!
Decode all that for the average punter, please.
 

gleeful

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Decode all that for the average punter, please.
Its very straight forward, each of the banks has been buying assets to prevent a recession. The money paid for the assets goes into keeping the wheels of business going.

That new cash is recorded as an asset on the central bank's books. These lines show how the assets are going up because they are buying more and more. Blue like is the US fed, which stopped buying new assets a while back.
 

A Voice

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Its very straight forward, each of the banks has been buying assets to prevent a recession. The money paid for the assets goes into keeping the wheels of business going.
Ok, thank you. I don't find much of that stuff straightforward.
 

gerhard dengler

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Decode all that for the average punter, please.
The ECB, and all the other central banks, are the only agencies prepared to buy the crap being sold by the banks.

There is no market for this crap otherwise.

The ECB had heralded that they would slow down the rate at which they were buying the crap being sold by the banks.

Today the ECB confirmed, kinda, the new rate at which they were buying the crap being sold by the banks.
 

Morgellons

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The ECB, and all the other central banks, are the only agencies prepared to buy the crap being sold by the banks.

There is no market for this crap otherwise.

The ECB had heralded that they would slow down the rate at which they were buying the crap being sold by the banks.

Today the ECB confirmed, kinda, the new rate at which they were buying the crap being sold by the banks.
What kind of crap are the banks selling?
 

tipofdiceberg

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Its very straight forward, each of the banks has been buying assets to prevent a recession. The money paid for the assets goes into keeping the wheels of business going.

That new cash is recorded as an asset on the central bank's books. These lines show how the assets are going up because they are buying more and more. Blue like is the US fed, which stopped buying new assets a while back.
Thank you.
 


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