The Backstop

Lumpy Talbot

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No
I think Varadkar and Coveney should continue just as they have been doing. I've been watching pretty closely the EU side and its statements and I'm seeing what I think is a certain weariness with the games in Westminster.

They aren't going to entertain anything now from Boris and his cabal because they know they may be facing a new government in the UK in some weeks.

Which means Boris won't be announcing any deals with Brussels, which would have been a coup for any PM facing the electorate.

I suspect that this will be a witch of an election, and my feeling is that there is an unknown quantity of exasperation and humiliation circulating. It could land where it splits the Lib-Dem and Labour vote, Brexit party do some small damage in taking a few percent from the Tories and the Tories lose what I think may be a surprisingly sizeable vote to the Lib-Dems.

I can see a Tory applecart being upset on this one.

I suspect a possible Lib-Dem/Labour coalition, a suitable wording for a re-run of a referendum and in the end a narrow remain victory, agreed article 50 withdrawal and lots of backslappery all 'round.
 


recedite

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I suspect a possible Lib-Dem/Labour coalition, a suitable wording for a re-run of a referendum and in the end a narrow remain victory, agreed article 50 withdrawal and lots of backslappery all 'round.
The other possibility is a Tory/Brexit Party coalition, and a quick exit without a deal.
Followed by a self-imposed blockade of Ireland as we restrict our land and sea borders "to protect the EU single market".
Plenty of people seem to be expecting a recession; the amount of houses that have hit the Irish property market in the last two months is unreal. Investors are quitting while they are still ahead.
We are loading the gun to shoot ourselves in the foot, while blaming The Brits for making us do it.
 

livingstone

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The other possibility is a Tory/Brexit Party coalition, and a quick exit without a deal.
Followed by a self-imposed blockade of Ireland as we restrict our land and sea borders "to protect the EU single market".
Plenty of people seem to be expecting a recession; the amount of houses that have hit the Irish property market in the last two months is unreal. Investors are quitting while they are still ahead.
We are loading the gun to shoot ourselves in the foot, while blaming The Brits for making us do it.
Tory/Brexit coalition looking extremely unlikely given very high chance Brexit Party doesn't win any seats, and even higher chance that they win fewer than five.

If the Tories are back in Government - and there is a very decent chance they could be - it will almost certainly be by themselves or with the backing of the DUP. Unlikely to be any other potential coalition or C&S partners floating around.
 

recedite

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unlikely given very high chance Brexit Party doesn't win any seats, and even higher chance that they win fewer than five.
The only way that can happen is if they stand down to let a Tory candidate win.
In which case the Tories will be beholden to them anyway.

If Labour have any sense they will make a similar arrangement with Dem Libtards. Labour will have to get off the fence and go full Remoaner, and that means losing votes to the Brexit Party.
 

Barroso

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....
I suspect that this will be a witch of an election, and my feeling is that there is an unknown quantity of exasperation and humiliation circulating. It could land where it splits the Lib-Dem and Labour vote, Brexit party do some small damage in taking a few percent from the Tories and the Tories lose what I think may be a surprisingly sizeable vote to the Lib-Dems. I can see a Tory applecart being upset on this one. I suspect ... a suitable wording for a re-run of a referendum and in the end a narrow remain victory, agreed article 50 withdrawal and lots of backslappery all 'round.
From the above you somehow seem to feel that a "narrow remain victory" would be the end of it. You'd need to explain that, I think, as IMO it would tear the UK further apart. It would tear the Tory party apart, and Farage would be cok-a-hoop as he would win the following election, taking Tory brexiteer votes and Labour brexiteer votes.
Such a narrow remain vote would also tear the UK apart, as it would almost certainly accentuate the Scotland/England divide, and there would be plenty of English calls to dump Scotland.
 

caledhel

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I know.

The agenda is that Paddy is responsible for the consequences of a no deal Brexit.

Both the London media and government and the Irish media will support that narrative.

It is being spun daily at the moment.

It is a lie.

But what has that got to do with it?

Surely everyone should realise by now that misidentification, distortion, misconstrual and placing (juxtaposing it's called) negative stories beside ones they want to trash by vague association is common practice in news reporting. Propaganda must facilitate the displacement of aggression by specifying the targets for hatred. Look for it and you'll see it. Gone are the days.





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recedite

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There's that word "Goodwill" cropping up again.
But can you foresee a solution, for example, when in some areas, Northern Ireland would follow EU rules and the rest of the UK would not?

BJ: What we want to see is a solution where the decision is taken by the UK and clearly that's the problem with the, with the backstop. It basically leaves the decision making up to Brussels and that's no good.

LK: What's the actual solution that you're proposing? Is it giving more power to Stormont, for example, that's being talked about a lot, that the Northern Irish assembly might be given a lock on opting out or opting in on EU regulation?

BJ: These are certainly some of the ideas that are being talked about and as are the ideas that you're familiar with to do with maximum facilitations, to do with checks away from the border, all sorts of ways in which you can avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland.

This is all doable. It's all doable with energy and goodwill.

But I mentioned the other day when I was in in Dublin, you know the famous dictum attributed I think probably incorrectly to Ian Paisley the elder, [in] Northern Ireland the people are British, but the cattle are Irish, you know there's a there's a germ of an idea there.
Seems to be the opinion of Merkel, the Polish guy, the Americans, all saying the same thing. Maybe its time for the Irish to join in.


 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Have they made an offer yet? If so, have a nice evening and don't hesitate to call should any ghosts take shape.
 

recedite

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The dogs on the street know what the jist of the "offer" is.
Some of it is outlined above
These are certainly some of the ideas that are being talked about and as are the ideas that you're familiar with to do with maximum facilitations, to do with checks away from the border, all sorts of ways in which you can avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland.
As with any offer or any deal, it takes both sides to work out the detail, and that is the part that has been missing all along. It takes two to tango.

Unfortunately its definitely going to fall short of the full Backstop, and that's why one side has no interest whatsoever in discussing it.
One thing is for sure though, its nowhere near as disruptive as Ireland imposing a full spec EU external hard border afterwards, with no co-operation from the UK.
 

Mickeymac

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The dogs on the street know what the jist of the "offer" is.
Some of it is outlined above

As with any offer or any deal, it takes both sides to work out the detail, and that is the part that has been missing all along. It takes two to tango.

Unfortunately its definitely going to fall short of the full Backstop, and that's why one side has no interest whatsoever in discussing it.
One thing is for sure though, its nowhere near as disruptive as Ireland imposing a full spec EU external hard border afterwards, with no co-operation from the UK.

Once again, you miss the whole point of the failed British exercise...…they have decided to leave the EU.....don't you get that?
 

death or glory

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The dogs on the street know what the jist of the "offer" is.
Some of it is outlined above

As with any offer or any deal, it takes both sides to work out the detail, and that is the part that has been missing all along. It takes two to tango.

Unfortunately its definitely going to fall short of the full Backstop, and that's why one side has no interest whatsoever in discussing it.
One thing is for sure though, its nowhere near as disruptive as Ireland imposing a full spec EU external hard border afterwards, with no co-operation from the UK.
Well said.
Goodwill or lack of it can work both ways.
 

recedite

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Good speech by Gunnar Beck of Germany today, in the EP.
The EU is "...concocting the issue of the Irish Backstop"
 

recedite

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There will have to be border checks in Ireland if there is a no-deal Brexit in order to preserve the interests of the European Union
Probably the first time they have said it out straight.
But the days of avoiding the question, obfuscation, and the talk of a "bulletproof" backstop are long gone.

 

shiel

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Probably the first time they have said it out straight.
But the days of avoiding the question, obfuscation, and the talk of a "bulletproof" backstop are long gone.

I know.

London media conducted an anti-EU propaganda campaign at the level of the straight banana for decades.

Result Brexiteers vote to tear up the agreement the UK signed with the citizens of 27 countries to cooperate in matters of mutual interest.

According to the same London media the consequences are all Paddy's fault.

Hypocrisy or what?
 


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