- Mar 7, 2014
As regards that alleged individual 85 million bet, I'd want something a bit more grounded in fact than The Keiser Report on RT.I hope after this humiliation this will be the last time the media put so much stall in what the bookies expect to happen in an election or referendum.
Watching The Keiser Report on RT on Saturday someone pointed out that one individual bet 85 million alone and that people were rigging the odds with large bets to favour Remain.
Nonetheless, the notion that the odds were 'rigged' in such an enormous market is quite silly. It's as silly as suggesting that house prices are 'rigged' by house buyers. Odds are a reflection of the market and how the market perceives probability. It's exceedingly unlikely that anyone would bet several million pounds simply in order to move odds without expecting to profit from it.
It is genuinely possible to 'rig' odds, in the sense that if you put a decent bet on in a niche market, you will generally see the odds move. I have seen fringe election candidates in Ireland bet on themselves with PP to bring their odds down. I've moved Paddy's odds myself with less than 20 euro on obscure foreign football leagues such as the Japanese second division. But we're talking about markets with little to no liquidity.
There were hundreds of millions if not billions traded on the referendum, so to believe the odds were 'rigged', you'd have to believe that Remain backers were willing to pour in hundreds of millions with no expectation of a return, simply in order to have a pretty marginal influence on public perception.