The bookies' odds say stop worrying about Brexit

ireallyshouldknowbetter

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I hope after this humiliation this will be the last time the media put so much stall in what the bookies expect to happen in an election or referendum.

Watching The Keiser Report on RT on Saturday someone pointed out that one individual bet €85 million alone and that people were rigging the odds with large bets to favour Remain.
As regards that alleged individual 85 million bet, I'd want something a bit more grounded in fact than The Keiser Report on RT.

Nonetheless, the notion that the odds were 'rigged' in such an enormous market is quite silly. It's as silly as suggesting that house prices are 'rigged' by house buyers. Odds are a reflection of the market and how the market perceives probability. It's exceedingly unlikely that anyone would bet several million pounds simply in order to move odds without expecting to profit from it.

It is genuinely possible to 'rig' odds, in the sense that if you put a decent bet on in a niche market, you will generally see the odds move. I have seen fringe election candidates in Ireland bet on themselves with PP to bring their odds down. I've moved Paddy's odds myself with less than 20 euro on obscure foreign football leagues such as the Japanese second division. But we're talking about markets with little to no liquidity.

There were hundreds of millions if not billions traded on the referendum, so to believe the odds were 'rigged', you'd have to believe that Remain backers were willing to pour in hundreds of millions with no expectation of a return, simply in order to have a pretty marginal influence on public perception.
 


Dame_Enda

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Mitch Feierstein is the one who revealed the £85 million individual bet on The Keiser Report.

Now separately, I was reading online yesterday and apparently Ladbrokes have revealed that the majority of money was bet on Leave. Its just that the individual bets for Remain were higher. That is why their odds for Remain were so short. :roll: I think bookies need to change this.
 
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crossman

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Mitch Feierstein is the one who revealed the £85 million individual bet on The Keiser Report.

Now separately, I was reading online yesterday and apparently Ladbrokes have revealed that the majority of money was bet on Leave. Its just that the individual bets for Remain were higher. That is why their odds for Remain were so short. :roll: I think bookies need to change this.
Bookies adjust the odds to ensure they come out on the right side - nothing else. So the odds will be shorter on the side betting the most money. Asking them to change this shows a total ignorance of what bookies do.
 

Dame_Enda

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Bookies adjust the odds to ensure they come out on the right side - nothing else. So the odds will be shorter on the side betting the most money. Asking them to change this shows a total ignorance of what bookies do.
But it seems in this case the odds were shorter on the side whose total bets were larger but whose individual bets were smaller.
 

Dame_Enda

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That wouldn't have happened, or the bookies would have lost out whatever the result, which is a far more unlikely scenario than, say Britain leaving the EU.
Yahoo News say most of the money in total bet in Ladbrokes was on Leave but the odds were much shorter for Remain.
 

Dearghoul

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Yahoo News say most of the money in total bet in Ladbrokes was on Leave but the odds were much shorter for Remain.
Then they made a poor business decision, and presumably lost money.

You seem to think they have some additional function as a polling organisation, and have some sort of public duties because of this.

They don't, and they don't.
 

Dame_Enda

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Then they made a poor business decision, and presumably lost money.

You seem to think they have some additional function as a polling organisation, and have some sort of public duties because of this.

They don't, and they don't.
Well maybe the problem is the stall the media place in them as a supposed pointer to the outcome of elections and referendums. Ivan Yates in particular. :roll:
 

Dearghoul

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Well maybe the problem is the stall the media place in them as a supposed pointer to the outcome of elections and referendums. Ivan Yates in particular. :roll:
It's understandable I suppose given the failings of polls over the last few years, even though on brexit they seem to have been pretty much on the money in the later stages.
 

Dame_Enda

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It's understandable I suppose given the failings of polls over the last few years, even though on brexit they seem to have been pretty much on the money in the later stages.
6 of the last 8 polls had Remain ahead. Only TNS and Opinium did not.
 

crossman

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But it seems in this case the odds were shorter on the side whose total bets were larger but whose individual bets were smaller.
Yes. The odds were shorter on the side where the total bets were larger because that is where the bookies had greater exposure.
 

ireallyshouldknowbetter

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Yahoo News say most of the money in total bet in Ladbrokes was on Leave but the odds were much shorter for Remain.
The wording of that article is a bit clumsy, but actually, what Ladbrokes have said (here: Most gamblers think Brexit will happen but odds still favour Remain - Business Insider) is that while the majority of bets were for Brexit, by far the majority of money was on Remain.

Shaddick added that while the number of bets on a Brexit vastly outnumbered those for Remain, more money was spent on the latter.

"One interesting angle is the fact that while most of the money we are taking is on Remain, the majority of bets are on Leave," said Shaddick to BI.
Bets are not like votes. Each one isn't equal. It doesn't matter if a million punters put up a quid and one punter puts 2 million on the other side, you'd still expect the second outcome to be the favourite in the betting markets.

When the volume of money taken shifts, so do the odds:

Betting giant Coral was yesterday quoting odds of 5-2 for Leave and 2-7 for Remain, down from 4-1 and 1-7 respectively at the weekend.

The firm has experienced a rush of punters laying bets, including "numerous" four-figure sums and one of £2,500
EU referendum: Bookies slash odds on Brexit vote after flood of bets in 24 hours | Politics | News | Daily Express
 

Dame_Enda

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Well the Yahoo article says most of the money in total was bet on Leave.
 

ireallyshouldknowbetter

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In that case, it contradicts other articles and statements from Ladbrokes on the matter, such as the one I linked above. The Yahoo article is simply poorly worded.

Ladbrokes also said they made a profit on the book overall, which would have been impossible if the greater volume of money (as opposed to bets) was on the Leave side.
 


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