The Brexit REBOOT possibility.

Shpake

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-heseltine/britain-could-still-reverse-brexit-former-minister-heseltine-says-idUSKCN1BH0JC

Prime Minister Theresa May seems to have hit a low point with her coughing speech. This speech was supposed to rally the troops but instead seems to have had the effect of setting off certain murmurings about her suitability.
But the stalemate continues on the front. Germans want the fine details done and dusted before they commit to a soft Brexit.

Would it be going too far to say that the fate of Brexit and Theresa May are entwined?
That her successor might call for a second referendum?
Some people maintain that her most likely successor now is Jeremy Corbyn who is also for Brexit, but a week is a long time in politics.
With all the confusion at the Front, the simple solution of holding a new referendum on Brexit might get more and more tempting.
Let's allow our fantasies to run free and suppose that this comes to pass. That they call a new referendum.
Would/Could or at what point could the European side say: "OK", we'll allow you back in, but only on condition that the UK gets rid of the Pound Sterling and joins the Euro.
 


Marcos the black

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Brexit is bigger than Theresa May. In fact yesterday's county final is bigger than Theresa May.
She's yesterday's news.
 

Volatire

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zoo.

the fantasies of idiots' do not a thread make.
 

Shpake

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zoo.

the fantasies of idiots' do not a thread make.
I don't think it's all that remote for the Brits to want to replay from the start. The two fronts have been in a stalemate for quite some time and if anyone is showing any signs of movement, it sure ain't Michel Barnier.
The Eurocrats are holding firm on the Brits agreeing on the divorce bill.
I agree that I let my fantasy run a little bit by inserting the condition for re-entry being the adoption of the Euro. But it's not that outlandish.
That little matter of the border with Eire -- when you get down it -- is no skin off Mainland Europe's ass. It's more Ireland's problem.
 

asset test

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There are many in UK who will not countenance a further referendum. The people have spoken, we will get our sovereignty back, kick out the immigrants, will be great for our country and so on.

It is too early in the game really to even suggest it. Wait until the thread unravels a bit and the difficulties are more visible, and maybe try then.

But them Little Englanders will not go down the re ref route without a massive fight.

The ROI/NI border is the big thing that concerns me now. And that looks unfixable at present. Very worrying. But those that voted for and against Brexit never considered this debacle. Probably thought NI was not part of the UK anyway.
 

Shpake

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Remaniac fantasy.
I agree with both words
But it's economic sense. Of course the Brits are reluctant to eat chit... umm crow. It will really go against the grain for them. But think for a moment. Who is the stronger party? UK or EU....
The Brits have lost most of their manufacturing base to low-wage countries. Even if they could get back these manufacturing plants they aren't prepared to work for Chinese wages. Only 1-2% can make a living out of agriculture. North sea oil is on the decline.
The only jewel in the crown that I can make out is London's financial center.. Oh and maybe their tourist industry.

Sometimes when someone points out the sensible thing to do, it's very hard to swallow.
 

tsarbomb

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I agree with both words
But it's economic sense. Of course the Brits are reluctant to eat chit... umm crow. It will really go against the grain for them. But think for a moment. Who is the stronger party? UK or EU....
The Brits have lost most of their manufacturing base to low-wage countries. Even if they could get back these manufacturing plants they aren't prepared to work for Chinese wages. Only 1-2% can make a living out of agriculture. North sea oil is on the decline.
The only jewel in the crown that I can make out is London's financial center.. Oh and maybe their tourist industry.

Sometimes when someone points out the sensible thing to do, it's very hard to swallow.
Who's the stronger party? The UK. Being a net contributer to the EU's budget and importing a lot of shtuff from the biggest players gives them a lot of leverage, even if Brussels won't admit it.

Most of the British economy is service based.

They're better off out of the EU than in it, though there will be a shock to their economy when the actually leave.
 

GDPR

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-heseltine/britain-could-still-reverse-brexit-former-minister-heseltine-says-idUSKCN1BH0JC

Prime Minister Theresa May seems to have hit a low point with her coughing speech. This speech was supposed to rally the troops but instead seems to have had the effect of setting off certain murmurings about her suitability.
But the stalemate continues on the front. Germans want the fine details done and dusted before they commit to a soft Brexit.

Would it be going too far to say that the fate of Brexit and Theresa May are entwined?
That her successor might call for a second referendum?
Some people maintain that her most likely successor now is Jeremy Corbyn who is also for Brexit, but a week is a long time in politics.
With all the confusion at the Front, the simple solution of holding a new referendum on Brexit might get more and more tempting.
Let's allow our fantasies to run free and suppose that this comes to pass. That they call a new referendum.
Would/Could or at what point could the European side say: "OK", we'll allow you back in, but only on condition that the UK gets rid of the Pound Sterling and joins the Euro.
According to expert legal advice given to Theresa May, but kept under wraps, the UK can cancel brexit at any time before 31 March 2019 and keep the same terms it has now for EU membership.

See: #6867 and also the main article: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/07/theresa-may-secret-advice-brexit-eu?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=247057&subid=20833491&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

I do hope there is a turnabout soon with or without another referendum. End this brexit madness!
 

Dasayev

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There will be no new referendum. If the Conservatives called another it would destroy their party.

The best that the Remainers can hope for is a long goodbye, with a soft Brexit at the end. But there will have to be some kind of Brexit.
 

gleeful

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I dont think the EU would allow the UK to simply change its mind. They would rightly worry the political wind could change again and Brexit could be re-announced. They will expect some pain and a long period in a Norway-style waiting room before all would be forgiven. At a minimum, the UK will lose its voting rights and MEPs on 30/03/19
 

Trainwreck

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Who's the stronger party? The UK. Being a net contributer to the EU's budget and importing a lot of shtuff from the biggest players gives them a lot of leverage, even if Brussels won't admit it.

Most of the British economy is service based.

They're better off out of the EU than in it, though there will be a shock to their economy when the actually leave.
YEs, the UK from a budget point of view.

But once again, people fail to understand the economics and fantasise they have a clue. Britain out, meaning genuinely out, with abolition of tariff and non-tariff barriers for all trade would experience a boom in income you wouldn't believe.


They need a PM who will just walk away. Completely.
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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There will be no new referendum. If the Conservatives called another it would destroy their party.

The best that the Remainers can hope for is a long goodbye, with a soft Brexit at the end. But there will have to be some kind of Brexit.
I think you have described the ultimate tray of fudge perfectly...............it'll be very like remain but not in name.
 

GDPR

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I dont think the EU would allow the UK to simply change its mind. They would rightly worry the political wind could change again and Brexit could be re-announced. They will expect some pain and a long period in a Norway-style waiting room before all would be forgiven. At a minimum, the UK will lose its voting rights and MEPs on 30/03/19
The EU has said repeatedly that it hopes the UK will change its mind. It may require a legally binding agreement that it won't pull out again for a while, but I think the UK would be so relieved it can stay it will volunteer such an agreement.
 

Tribal

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It may require a legally binding agreement that it won't pull out again for a while, but I think the UK would be so relieved it can stay it will volunteer such an agreement.
Grace, you're going in the deep end of this now. If A50 isn't legally binding then nothing agreed now will be considered binding by the UK.

And as far as relief to suspend departure the opinion polls are still very tight a year after the vote.

You see how ignoring the vote in Catalonia is solidifying support against Madrid? It's not the same situation I know but the political dynamics are the same.
 

GDPR

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Grace, you're going in the deep end of this now. If A50 isn't legally binding then nothing agreed now will be considered binding by the UK.

And as far as relief to suspend departure the opinion polls are still very tight a year after the vote.

You see how ignoring the vote in Catalonia is solidifying support against Madrid? It's not the same situation I know but the political dynamics are the same.
Meantime in Catalonia the leaders (allegedly up to criminal activities and the referendum was a distraction from them) are in a panic as 100s of major companies announce they are leaving to set up elsewhere in Spain. Over the weekend there was also a massive demo (c.350,000 people) in Barcelona (Catalonia) in favour of staying within Spain.

Doesn't seem to me to be that much solidifying support against Madrid.

Moral of story: get out and vote in referenda, dimwits in both Catalonia and the UK, otherwise you will get the result you did not want. Democracy is not just a right, it is a duty.

The A50 can be changed if both parties agree so to do. It is not written in stone.
 

Tribal

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Meantime in Catalonia the leaders (allegedly up to criminal activities and the referendum was a distraction from them) are in a panic as 100s of major companies announce they are leaving to set up elsewhere in Spain. Over the weekend there was also a massive demo (c.350,000 people) in Barcelona (Catalonia) in favour of staying within Spain.

Doesn't seem to me to be that much solidifying support against Madrid.

Moral of story: get out and vote in referenda, dimwits in both Catalonia and the UK, otherwise you will get the result you did not want. Democracy is not just a right, it is a duty.

The A50 can be changed if both parties agree so to do. It is not written in stone.
We broke away from the UK despite the immediate economic consequences of doing so, but it was independence first and not economics that drove us.

Now as I said I cited the current situation in Iberia to illustrate political dynamics. Quashing/suspending/forgetting the Brexit vote is not an option and as illustrated in the last election Corbyn accepted Brexit and concentrated instead on domestic issues. This completely cut the legs from under May Brexit victory march.

There's a real divide in England and dropping brexit would be vindicating mistrust of London. It would swing many remain voters just as it would make many unity Catalans distrust Madrid.
 

Trainwreck

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Grace, you're going in the deep end of this now. If A50 isn't legally binding then nothing agreed now will be considered binding by the UK.

And as far as relief to suspend departure the opinion polls are still very tight a year after the vote.

You see how ignoring the vote in Catalonia is solidifying support against Madrid? It's not the same situation I know but the political dynamics are the same.
Grace is child. Just look at the things she writes. "The EU will need a binding agreement Britain won't withdraw". There are two blindingly obvious problems with that statement, one legal, one political.
 

GDPR

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We broke away from the UK despite the immediate economic consequences of doing so, but it was independence first and not economics that drove us.

Now as I said I cited the current situation in Iberia to illustrate political dynamics. Quashing/suspending/forgetting the Brexit vote is not an option and as illustrated in the last election Corbyn accepted Brexit and concentrated instead on domestic issues. This completely cut the legs from under May Brexit victory march.

There's a real divide in England and dropping brexit would be vindicating mistrust of London. It would swing many remain voters just as it would make many unity Catalans distrust Madrid.
Corbyn accepted the brexit vote because it is a matter dear to his ultra-left heart. He has been wanting the UK to leave for yonks, even before most brexiters did.

I don't think the tories ever had a brexit victory march. Rather they fell about brawling with each other.

Dropping brexit would not cause the distrust you envisage.
 
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