The Climate Change Debate Thread (Second Thread)

RasherHash

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"...The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5–10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature." -Humlum, etal. 2013
 


RasherHash

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Iarmuid

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Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming
In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. While one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, we estimate that such an increase would not be detectable until the latter half of the century, and we still have only low confidence that such an increase will occur in the Atlantic basin, based on an updated survey of subsequent modeling studies by our and other groups. A recent study finds that the observed increase in an Atlantic hurricane rapid intensification metric over 1982-2009 is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing. These climate change detection results for rapid intensification metrics are suggestive but not definitive, and more research is needed for more confident conclusions.
Therefore, we conclude that it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.) However, human activity may have already caused some some changes that are not yet confidently detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or due to limitations in modeling and physical understanding (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate, uncertainties in simulation of Atlantic multidecadal variability).
 

RasherHash

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The Modern Warm Period began around 1700, at the nadir of the Little Ice Age. It was very predictable as the Medieval Warm Period & Roman Warm Period we’re in the same cycles of about 1,000 yrs. from peak to peak. So 200 more years of net warming are coming, with ups and downs.
 

RasherHash

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RasherHash

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NASA admits that climate change occurs because of changes in Earth’s solar orbit, and NOT because of SUVs and fossil fuels
Friday, August 30, 2019 by: Ethan Huff

 

Turbinator

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Top Russian Scientist: ‘Fear A Deep Temperature Drop — Not Global Warming’

There is certainly a strong correlation between cold periods and sun spot activity
 

RasherHash

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RasherHash

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RasherHash

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RasherHash

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Prevent Climate Change:

1) Eat insects
2) Eat your pets
3) Eat dog food
4) Eat human flesh

🙄 https://t.co/aDcHiNkGka
 

RasherHash

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2017: Dr. John Bates, who led NOAA’s climate-data records program for 10 years, said "the federal government’s agency in charge of climate science, published a flawed study that was meant to disprove the hiatus in global warming, using unverified data sets."
 

The OD

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Prevent Climate Change:

1) Eat insects
2) Eat your pets
3) Eat dog food
4) Eat human flesh

🙄 https://t.co/aDcHiNkGka
Oh no, not human meat - too fatty I'd say and far too much additives from their own diet to contend with.

And dog food - meh, too much ash for my liking and it doesn't come in minestrone flavour FFS. I tried, yuck.

:ROFLMAO:
 

owedtojoy

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Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming
In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. While one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, we estimate that such an increase would not be detectable until the latter half of the century, and we still have only low confidence that such an increase will occur in the Atlantic basin, based on an updated survey of subsequent modeling studies by our and other groups. A recent study finds that the observed increase in an Atlantic hurricane rapid intensification metric over 1982-2009 is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing. These climate change detection results for rapid intensification metrics are suggestive but not definitive, and more research is needed for more confident conclusions.
Therefore, we conclude that it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.) However, human activity may have already caused some some changes that are not yet confidently detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or due to limitations in modeling and physical understanding (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate, uncertainties in simulation of Atlantic multidecadal variability).
So what is the prognosis, Iarmuid?

Wait until low-lying island nations and coastal cities become virtually uninhabitable (or at least uninsurable) due to periodic hurricanes and storm surges, then you and Donald Trump will have some brilliant ideas on how to fix the problem? ;)

The main findings of that paper (Thanks for posting) are:
  • Sea level rise – which very likely has a substantial human contribution to the global mean observed rise according to IPCC AR5should be causing higher coastal inundation levels for tropical cyclones that do occur, all else assumed equal.
  • Tropical cyclone rainfall rates will likely increase in the future due to anthropogenic warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content.
  • Tropical cyclone intensities globally will likely increase on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming).
  • The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels will likely increase due to anthropogenic warming over the 21st century.
  • In terms of detection and attribution, much less is known about hurricane/tropical cyclone activity changes, compared to global temperature. In the northwest Pacific basin, there is emerging evidence for a detectable poleward shift in the latitude of maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, with a tentative link to anthropogenic warming.
(Your post only refers to Atlantic hurricanes, which are only a subset of global tropical cyclones)
 

Breeal

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So what is the prognosis, Iarmuid?

Wait until low-lying island nations and coastal cities become virtually uninhabitable (or at least uninsurable) due to periodic hurricanes and storm surges, then you and Donald Trump will have some brilliant ideas on how to fix the problem? ;)

The main findings of that paper (Thanks for posting) are:
  • Sea level rise – which very likely has a substantial human contribution to the global mean observed rise according to IPCC AR5should be causing higher coastal inundation levels for tropical cyclones that do occur, all else assumed equal.
  • Tropical cyclone rainfall rates will likely increase in the future due to anthropogenic warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content.
  • Tropical cyclone intensities globally will likely increase on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming).
  • The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels will likely increase due to anthropogenic warming over the 21st century.
  • In terms of detection and attribution, much less is known about hurricane/tropical cyclone activity changes, compared to global temperature. In the northwest Pacific basin, there is emerging evidence for a detectable poleward shift in the latitude of maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, with a tentative link to anthropogenic warming.
(Your post only refers to Atlantic hurricanes, which are only a subset of global tropical cyclones)
But Odious, they seem to be predictions? The word LIKELY appears in every one of your statements.

BTW - here is what the IPCC say about tropical cyclones globally -

"Globally, there is low confidence in attribution of changes in tropical cyclone activity to human influence. This is due to insufficient observational evidence"

That's why they call Climate Change a religious cult, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE!
 

RasherHash

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SOCHI, RUSSIA SEES ITS EARLIEST SNOW IN 30 YEARS

"Early-season-snow doesn't fit the AGW narrative, it simply shouldn't be happening in a warming world -- and that's exactly why this story won't be covered by the MSM."

 

Iarmuid

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So what is the prognosis, Iarmuid?

Wait until low-lying island nations and coastal cities become virtually uninhabitable (or at least uninsurable) due to periodic hurricanes and storm surges, then you and Donald Trump will have some brilliant ideas on how to fix the problem? ;)

The main findings of that paper (Thanks for posting) are:
  • Sea level rise – which very likely has a substantial human contribution to the global mean observed rise according to IPCC AR5should be causing higher coastal inundation levels for tropical cyclones that do occur, all else assumed equal.
  • Tropical cyclone rainfall rates will likely increase in the future due to anthropogenic warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content.
  • Tropical cyclone intensities globally will likely increase on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming).
  • The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels will likely increase due to anthropogenic warming over the 21st century.
  • In terms of detection and attribution, much less is known about hurricane/tropical cyclone activity changes, compared to global temperature. In the northwest Pacific basin, there is emerging evidence for a detectable poleward shift in the latitude of maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, with a tentative link to anthropogenic warming.
(Your post only refers to Atlantic hurricanes, which are only a subset of global tropical cyclones)
You're welcome. I'll send your regards to Donald at our next tea date.
 


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