The end of Enda??

McEavelli

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Cheryl Cole could be leader of FG and the media would convince us she was ugly. Kenny, Bruton or whoever it doesn't matter, someone seems to have decided that Lowry's damage will be permanent.
 


Keith-M

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In reality, it doesn't matter about Kenny.

1) No party is likely to ever get an overall majority again.
Agreed.

2) If you accept that, then the only debate is how many seats FG will get over Labour.
Or vice-versa

3) It's safe to say that FG will have more seats than Labour at the next GE, and will be the senior partner in government.
On these numbers that's a FAR from safe statement. There are a minimum of 40 Labour seats (on in every constituency bar some rural 3 seaters) and Labour will be in the shake-up for the last seat, so there will be very few Labour transfers available. Labour transfers played a huge roll in boosting FG's vote to seat ratio, but no they won't, so if these number were replicated at the polls and Labour managed their vote well, they can overtake FG.

Even if they come close but the mix is sdomething like 50-55 FG and 45-50 Labour, you're into "rotating Taoiseach" territory.

4) By getting rid of Kenny, who do you replace him with ? Bruton has little more personality that Kenny, if at all. Noonan ? Eh no. Reilly ? Perhaps. Regardless, for the pain that would ensue, there is no guarantee that it would deliver many more seats that they can already expect to get, even with Kenny.
Bruton has proven more popular than Kenny in every poll on the two men. I accept the botched heave hasn't helped him and that the FG front bench is as empty as the Newcastle United tropy cabinet, but there has to be someone out there.

As a previous poster said, FG would be better off getting the head down and just working harder.
Too late for that. Come election time it willl still be "alternative Taoiseach Enda Kenny" that will be their downfall.
 
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dent

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On these numbers that's a FAR from safe statement. There are a minimum of 40 Labour seats (on in every constituency bar some rural 3 seaters) and Labour will be in the shake-up for the last seat, so there will be very few Labour transfers available. Labour transfers played a huge roll in boosting FG's vote to seat ratio, but no they won't, so if these number were replicated at the polls and Labour managed their vote well, they can overtake FG.

Even if they come close but the mix is sdomething like 50-55 FG and 45-50 Labour, you're into "rotating Taoiseach" territory.
I've no problem with that, but I feel these polls are too soft towards Labour. The next GE is going to be the dirtiest, most vicious ever seen. FF will be spinning lies like no tomorrow, and some will stick.

Bruton has proven more popular than Kenny in every poll on the two men. I accept the botched heave hasn't helped him and that the FG front bench is as empty as the Newcastle United tropy cabinet, but there has to be someone out there.


Too late for that. Come election time it willl still be "alternative Taoiseach Enda Kenny" that will be their downfall.
FF were only waiting for Bruton - he's too nicey nice for b'stards like them.
 

Iarmhi Gael

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Time now for Fine Gael to stand united behind Kenny.

Labour will not have enough candidates to pull in the number of seats required. Whatever happens - I don't think anyone within FG could stomach anymore heaves or infighting
 

fagen

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FF is at a all time low gilmore and his union bosses are making quiet a lot of noise but havent mentioned to many policies and still FG are not gaining lots of support its time for another take over bid or FG will see power pass them by again
 

cyberianpan

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Time now for Fine Gael to stand united behind Kenny.

Labour will not have enough candidates to pull in the number of seats required. Whatever happens - I don't think anyone within FG could stomach anymore heaves or infighting
That is similar to FF's problem... even though Cowen is a liability, changing him is a real difficulty

Hogan, Reilly and Kenny chose to fight a tough and dirty campaign against Bruton... this has made another battle very , very difficult for FG right now

The only way FG can dump Kenny... is for him to decide to go... or for Reilly & Hogan to tell him to (seeing that they do the thinking for him)

Richard Bruton still has enough popularity with the electorate to be made credible, and he personally has some great quotes and stories where he can say
"I did see this coming, and this is what I told you in 2004" etc etc

cYp
 

Fantasia

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Yes folks, its the Enda de line for this no hoper. They will just find him a runners up job like the Seanad or Aras..
 

Tomas Mor

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That is similar to FF's problem... even though Cowen is a liability, changing him is a real difficulty

Hogan, Reilly and Kenny chose to fight a tough and dirty campaign against Bruton... this has made another battle very , very difficult for FG right now

The only way FG can dump Kenny... is for him to decide to go... or for Reilly & Hogan to tell him to (seeing that they do the thinking for him)

Richard Bruton still has enough popularity with the electorate to be made credible, and he personally has some great quotes and stories where he can say
"I did see this coming, and this is what I told you in 2004" etc etc

cYp
Bruton ,the land rancher and Clongowes educated would then be a great whipping boy for those who cry West Brits, John Unionist, drop the peace process etc. Any word on Gerry Adams ?
 

Tomas Mor

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cyberianpan

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Bruton ,the land rancher and Clongowes educated would then be a great whipping boy for those who cry West Brits, John Unionist, drop the peace process etc.
That's irrelevant - there's been enough Jackeens and Gombeens in power to last anyone a lifetime

If Oliver Cromwell was alive,kicking and credible on economic matters: the Irish people would gladly have him as ruler. Bruton on his record alone would demolish Cowen and dwarf Gilmore

cYp
 

redger

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Look, I am no supporter of FG, but I have a pain in my face with this. Since Garrett stepped down, every single FG leader has been in this position. Every one. Its always - "he has no charisma, he doesn't connect with the people, if we feck him out and install *** instead, then it'll be better." Dukes. Bruton. Noonan, now Kenny. Its always the same, and the next one will be in ust the same position. In the end, what was so wrong with any of them? Have any of them been dishonest? No. has any been a traitor? No. Do we really believe we would be in the position we are now, if they had won elections? No. Would we have been better off with any of them as taoiseach than the shower we actually got (maybe Reynolds was better than the rest, and Bruton made it for 2 years) ?? Of course we would. So why always this navel gazing?
 

the_rebubblican

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Difficult time for the FG faithful. Change the leader now and harness the desire for change or stick with Enda and watch Gilmore match them for seats. FG's demise may be part of a bigger and slower swing to the centre left. If Labour can provide decent government in the next administration they'll crack the mould. In the following government they could break it. They'll have to nail down policy details though. Budget day will be a big day for all parties. The FF and FG difference will become increasingly irrelevant the longer Enda stays as he's not killing them off. If they felt he could it would be a different story.
 

slippy wicket

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That's irrelevant - there's been enough Jackeens and Gombeens in power to last anyone a lifetime

If Oliver Cromwell was alive,kicking and credible on economic matters: the Irish people would gladly have him as ruler. Bruton on his record alone would demolish Cowen and dwarf Gilmore

cYp
Fair comment.
At the time of the heave, i would have been in brutons camp, but have to say that the slightly manic way that he behaved turned me right off.

As regards Enda, in the flesh he has a natural charisma, which he needs to show to the nation.
 

hmmm

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As regards Enda, in the flesh he has a natural charisma, which he needs to show to the nation.
The country is crying out for competence, not charisma. Enda has had years to "show it" and he has failed, he has lost the country. The celebrations following Enda's win (the shouts of "Up Mayo" and pictures of octogenarians and gombeens on the winning side) have done huge damage to the FG brand.

Noonan has been the one bright spot since the reshuffle.
 

hiker

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Enda really has to go! He's just not cutting it with the electorate.
Surely those tds/senators who supported him will now see sense?
FG will be alright. They'll be filling in the gaps as junior partners in the next government.
Gilmore might even let Kenny be Tainiste!!
 

CookieMonster

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Enda has shown his leadership abilities by bringing the Country and Western wing of FG in behind him during the Great Unpleasantness. Seeing as the country is down the toilet and we'll all be living in fields eating dirt this closeness with the country folk will be invaluable.
 


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