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Lumpy Talbot

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Politically the UK was Americanised and put on a short leash after the Suez debacle. Much of the risk around its sole adventure in my time in the Falklands looks like a smart piece of work simply because at all times the British knew where the Argentinian military vessels were because they were being fed satellite info from Virginia direct into the Admiralty buildings in London.

The Argentinians had no idea where the UK vessels were. That's the advantage in strategic information that wins every times.

The 17.4 million aren't going to be very happy with their government when the American control starts becoming more obvious in every day British life.
 

Sync

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Letter from 3 Democrat Congressmen and 1 Republican (Peter King) warning UK to pull the legislation or lose a trade deal with US.

So here's the vicious circle the UK finds itself in.

  • The only way they can get a trade deal with the US is by pacifying Ireland (and by dint of that the EU).
  • Which will involve the WA at a minimum being enforced to Ireland's satisfaction
  • Which will mean food standards in NI align with the EU
  • Which means the rest of the UK pretty much has to as well or else they'll have problems exporting into NI
  • But the US will demand concessions on food standards to give them a trade deal
  • Which the UK can only do if they have full control of their own standards environment
  • Which will hack the Irish off
  • And the only way they can get a trade deal with the US is by pacifying Ireland etc etc etc
 

Lumpy Talbot

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That's a very good description of the canyon Johnson has run the Tory Party and latterly the UK up. The canyon has indeed become quite narrow now. I note Johnson and the Tories are portraying this as a sort of domestic disagreement and has instructed cabinet ministers to head off any rebellion but there again Johnson is only seeing the first fence and not the water-jump and the ditch just after that.

Even if he persuades Tory backbench MPs, Lords and committees on a watered down Bill that means it still proposes to break international law then the EU and its member states aren't going to swallow it so it looks to me like a crash-out Brexit at this point.

The UK demands are all across EU member state red lines so the EU has no concessions to offer. The UK is in a bind of its own making and that is why the EU are being very passive about getting into rows despite the many invitations issued by the Telegraph, the Sun and the Mail, all grim breakfast reading along Embassy row in London.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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The customs situation is going to bring down serious pressure on Johnson from here the longer they can see instability at ports from January 1st. Johnson can't resolve the customs issue without the co-operation of the EU and EU member states, most notably Ireland.

This is most unusual in our political history. We face a threat but we actually have Brussels and Washington, the latter having enormous sway over any UK government and never more so than now, telling London that the Irish position is the only one they'll support on the Northern Ireland Protocols. Bear in mind those Protocols are agreed and signed off in the WA, an international treaty, and both communities in Northern Ireland are signed up to that.

There is nothing in it for Washington, which regards the GFA and attendant progress as an American achievement in diplomacy and they probably do have a valid claim there.

London is now the quare position of putting enormous pressure on the 1707 Union quite possibly beyond breaking point, in order to work towards some nonsensical and vague Camelot of jam still for tea which means lots of different nostalgic things to lots of people but really isn't a sound basis for policy anywhere approaching the future.

I still think we are looking at a sort of political nervous breakdown centred on a carefully fostered resentment about a loss of face in the world by populists. The result has just resulted in crisis after crisis.

Over the long sweep of time it was probably inevitable at some point as the population of the UK are traditionally managed by patriotism so that's where the scoundrels will collect. And they have.

But it is something that has to be excised after being ignored for so long as a malignant lump. It went malignant and will receive its own treatment but it may be fatal to the UK as it currently stands. All self-inflicted as well. This is a nervous break-down around status anxiety. Very middle class in a way.
 

Marcos the black

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So here's the vicious circle the UK finds itself in.

  • The only way they can get a trade deal with the US is by pacifying Ireland (and by dint of that the EU).
  • Which will involve the WA at a minimum being enforced to Ireland's satisfaction
  • Which will mean food standards in NI align with the EU
  • Which means the rest of the UK pretty much has to as well or else they'll have problems exporting into NI
  • But the US will demand concessions on food standards to give them a trade deal
  • Which the UK can only do if they have full control of their own standards environment
  • Which will hack the Irish off
  • And the only way they can get a trade deal with the US is by pacifying Ireland etc etc etc
And you have to wonder that if (and I believe he does) Boris can work out all of the above, and realises the bind that they are in, how he thinks that breaking International law is going to fix any of the above.
 

owedtojoy

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So here's the vicious circle the UK finds itself in.

  • The only way they can get a trade deal with the US is by pacifying Ireland (and by dint of that the EU).
  • Which will involve the WA at a minimum being enforced to Ireland's satisfaction
  • Which will mean food standards in NI align with the EU
  • Which means the rest of the UK pretty much has to as well or else they'll have problems exporting into NI
  • But the US will demand concessions on food standards to give them a trade deal
  • Which the UK can only do if they have full control of their own standards environment
  • Which will hack the Irish off
  • And the only way they can get a trade deal with the US is by pacifying Ireland etc etc etc
It comes down to the tragedy that Brexit was never thought out in advance ... even the Prophet Nigel never wrote a book or a paper about what it would actually mean in practice.

Did Nigel ever apply himself to how Brexit could co-exist with the Good Friday Agreement or the Irish Border? No, and the amount of time given to it in the Referendum campaign was 0. In fact, no substantive issues were discussed in the Referendum, or put to the people, other than that it was going to be a jolly fun wheeze, old boy.

Now that the elite Tories who grabbed the Brexit baton from Farage are in charge the sinking realisation has dawned that the sunny Brexit of the mind is undeliverable.

The vague, sunshine warmed-uplands Brexit called "Global Britain" is incompatible with an Open Border in Ireland. Sad Fact.

What is being played out is the British Psycho-Drama of Loss/ Denial/Anger/ Sulks ... eventually Acceptance (we hope). The EU should just let them at it.

It is like a wife divorcing her wealthy husband and finding she will not get not get the super income, the Porsche or the flat in Knightsbridge in the settlement.
 

max99

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We're an embarrassment...shutting down the whole Government... cabinet in lock down...national assembly shut down..over one man's temperature...can we get through any International crisis...without making complete idiots of ourselves....?? looks so bad Internationally , when we're trying to install some confidence... . making headlines on the Guardian/ sky news etc etc... we're just a joke
 

Sync

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What is being played out is the British Psycho-Drama of Loss/ Denial/Anger/ Sulks ... eventually Acceptance (we hope). The EU should just let them at it.
And where they're back to is the same place they were in for all of 2019: Spending lots of time talking internally about what's acceptable to UK MPs. They're now arguing about how you get compromise within the Tory party by potentially allowing parliament rather than the Government hold the gun that's pointed at the EU.

Which misses the point that the EU isn't going to allow anyone point a gun at them.
 

Sidewindered

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And where they're back to is the same place they were in for all of 2019: Spending lots of time talking internally about what's acceptable to UK MPs. They're now arguing about how you get compromise within the Tory party by potentially allowing parliament rather than the Government hold the gun that's pointed at the EU.

Which misses the point that the EU isn't going to allow anyone point a gun at them.
Wait, haven't we been exactly here before? Like two or three times?
 

Sync

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Wait, haven't we been exactly here before? Like two or three times?
But those were DIFFERENT guns. This is totally different and everyone should take the UK totally seriously.
 

owedtojoy

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And where they're back to is the same place they were in for all of 2019: Spending lots of time talking internally about what's acceptable to UK MPs. They're now arguing about how you get compromise within the Tory party by potentially allowing parliament rather than the Government hold the gun that's pointed at the EU.

Which misses the point that the EU isn't going to allow anyone point a gun at them.
Yes, suddenly the House of Commons is the centre of the drama, for the first time since the General Election. Which is a sign that this is a British piece of theatre, and the EU will just have to wait until they work it out.

The EU has offered the British time to work out what they want. The British are so incoherent about what they want they interpret that as some sort of attempt to "trap" them in the EU.

I mean, who knew in 2016 that the main stumbling block in 2020 would be a Tory desire to create British tech companies to rival Google? Isn't that the Big Government Thatcher execrated?
 

AhNowStop

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Yes, Indeed when drunk - just like his hero Churchill.
Churchill was instrumental in inflicting British state terrorism and malevolence upon the Irish Nation and thus Britain lost 5/6 of Ireland as Ireland successfully won independence - will Boris Johnson be the British PM who is the one to oversee the remaining 1/6 of Ireland safely returned home in the Reunited Ireland ?
Now theres a thought :unsure: 👏
 

Ireniall

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Yes, suddenly the House of Commons is the centre of the drama, for the first time since the General Election. Which is a sign that this is a British piece of theatre, and the EU will just have to wait until they work it out.

The EU has offered the British time to work out what they want. The British are so incoherent about what they want they interpret that as some sort of attempt to "trap" them in the EU.

I mean, who knew in 2016 that the main stumbling block in 2020 would be a Tory desire to create British tech companies to rival Google? Isn't that the Big Government Thatcher execrated?
For twenty years after the war they were a very technologically advanced nation having been at the front line of the conflict for longer than any one else and benefiting from the accelerated advancement that this brings. Even the US was slightly behind in some areas. The main reason that the big players did not, in the end, come from Britain was because they were too small and could not support the innovations, bring them to market and use their own state and military to give them a fair start. This was at a time when there was only one major competitor-the USA. Now there's China and the EU as well. Trying to be the next Microsoft or whatever will almost certainly elude them for similar reasons
 

Sync

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Lord Keen has resigned as Advocate General for Scotland. He sort of had to. His position was untenable from both points of view.

Logistics UK confirms that the UK's SMART Freight system designed to manage flow of goods from Jan 1st will only got Beta in mid December.

So in no way ready for Jan 1st.

Eh_Ep5qWsAQpxcd?format=jpg&name=900x900.jpg
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
'not fully tested and stable until April 2021' ... o_O
 

McSlaggart

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Mr Raab said "the threat to the Good Friday Agreement comes from the EU's politicisation of the issue".

He defended the bill as "precautionary and proportionate" adding "what we can't have is the EU seeking to erect a border down the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and Britain".



I have no objection to the British not putting a border in the Irish sea. They are an independent nation who can make decisions for themselves no matter how stupid.

The simply need to detail the location of the border they wish to install and detail how they plan to control that particular border.


To take one example will the British put a border post in Strabane in Tyrone? If they are putting a border post in Strabane could the politicians who think its a good idea be the first people to take up the position as border guards?
 

AhNowStop

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Mr Raab said "the threat to the Good Friday Agreement comes from the EU's politicisation of the issue".

He defended the bill as "precautionary and proportionate" adding "what we can't have is the EU seeking to erect a border down the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and Britain".



I have no objection to the British not putting a border in the Irish sea. They are an independent nation who can make decisions for themselves no matter how stupid.

The simply need to detail the location of the border they wish to install and detail how they plan to control that particular border.


To take one example will the British put a border post in Strabane in Tyrone? If they are putting a border post in Strabane could the politicians who think its a good idea be the first people to take up the position as border guards?
That id like to see
 

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