The EU/UK Trade Deal: Policy Wonk Thread

Sync

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Four years after Brexit, Johnson has finally published his proposal on how trucks travelling between the UK and EU will be handled in 2021. It's inspiring.

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The U.K. government still hasn’t set out how trucks moving between Britain and the European Union will be handled after Brexit -- a major gap in its planning that is causing concern among freight firms.

The government outlined its proposals for the border with the EU in an 89-page consultation document circulated to the industry. The section setting out how lorries will navigate the new customs processes consists of a blank page.

Britain’s decision to leave the EU’s customs union means the millions of trucks that cross the Strait of Dover each year will face new checks and paperwork from next year -- even if the U.K. and its largest trading partner sign a trade agreement by then. Businesses are concerned about the government’s lack of preparation and the growing risk supply chains will be disrupted.
 


bradlux

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A French MEP tore into Brussels bosses as “cold EU technocrats” who don’t understand the drive behind Brexit. Jérôme Rivière told the European Parliament that Britain was heading in the “right direction” by pursuing Brexit and leaving the EU. Mr Rivière singled out EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier for criticism, claiming his Frenchman “embodied the condescending and cold approach” of Brussels.
 

Sync

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Eesh.

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This is what sunk May. Negotiators doing their own thing. Could you imagine a news story of "Mr Barnier too to social media to distance himself from suggestions of EU Govts". Frost's mandate is to execute the UK govt's instruction. It is not to set those instructions. This is what went wrong with May: Her people did deals at odds with the govt.
 

shiel

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Eesh.

View attachment 25811

This is what sunk May. Negotiators doing their own thing. Could you imagine a news story of "Mr Barnier too to social media to distance himself from suggestions of EU Govts". Frost's mandate is to execute the UK govt's instruction. It is not to set those instructions. This is what went wrong with May: Her people did deals at odds with the govt.
The London media carrying on their anti-EU propaganda as they have done for decades.

The no deal outcome is getting nearer and nearer.
 

McSlaggart

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The London media carrying on their anti-EU propaganda as they have done for decades.

The no deal outcome is getting nearer and nearer.

Mr Blair said that no deal was "the most likely thing now".

He added that he had knowledge of the trajectory of negotiations from insider sources in Brussels.

Speaking to The Sunday Times he said: "The information I have from the European side certainly is that they’re expecting this now.



 

owedtojoy

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Mr Blair said that no deal was "the most likely thing now".

He added that he had knowledge of the trajectory of negotiations from insider sources in Brussels.

Speaking to The Sunday Times he said: "The information I have from the European side certainly is that they’re expecting this now.



Germany is taking over the EU Presidency for these six months.

Angela Merkel gave very clear signals that she is not for turning. She and Theresa May had agreed on a UK still closely aligned with the EU, and that is still her vision. If the UK wants something else, defined only by them, she said, "then they will have to take the consequences".



“With Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the British government wants to define for itself what relationship it will have with us after the country leaves,” Merkel said. “It will then have to live with the consequences, of course, that is to say with a less closely interconnected economy.
I think Merkel and Barnier are not going to be thrown off by Johnson's game playing. The EU is moving on to the issues of its Recovery, and Merkel devoted only a short portion of her interview to Brexit. The UK has no allies at the table, and the 27 just want to see them gone at this stage. Economic Recovery, the Pandemic, China and NATO are the new pre-occupations.
 
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blinding

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Mr Blair said that no deal was "the most likely thing now".

He added that he had knowledge of the trajectory of negotiations from insider sources in Brussels.

Speaking to The Sunday Times he said: "The information I have from the European side certainly is that they’re expecting this now.



Blair is considered to be scum by the British people. His mouth farts are irrelevant ! !
 

blinding

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Germany is taking over the EU Presidency for these six months.

Angela Merkel gave very clear signals that she is not for turning. She and Theresa May had agreed on a UK still closely aligned with the EU, and that is still her vision. If the UK wants something else, defined only by them, she said, "then they will have to take the consequences".





I think Merkel and Barnier are not going to be thrown off by Johnson's game playing. The EU is moving on to the issues of its Recovery, and Merkel devoted only a short portion of her interview to Brexit. The UK has no allies at the table, and the 27 just want to see them gone at this stage. Economic Recovery, the Pandemic, China and NATO are the new pre-occupations.
In fairness the Eu Denial has gone on Long Enough. Jeez the Eu is like a 14 year old that can’t cope with being Dumped ! !
 

Sync

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Sterling leadership by Truss. Doesn't want to upset the farmers. Doesn't want to upset the free trade hawks. So she says she'll set up a commission to make recommendations on food standards. Because if there's one thing the UK has proven very good at during these negotiations, it's taking time out to negotiate with itself.

So will this speed up or slow down the negotiations with the EU and US? Give both US and EU head negotiators have said there's been no progress?
 

Lumpy Talbot

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How on earth the UK Government could have it in its manifesto that there would be no trade barriers post exit from the EU because of the anticipated Free Trade Agreement envisaged to replace the Single Market.. that's a lot of assumption right there.

That was rather presumptuous a promise, considering the EU hadn't been consulted on that notion and the UK isn't in charge of what tariffs or trade barriers might arise between the UK and EU post Brexit. It doesn't have the right or ability to impose its view of what a trade agreement should look like unilaterally.

Out of the EU by March 2019. That was nearly 16 months ago... it looks like a list of advantages to being in the EU being drawn up as a promise of what you'd end up with AFTER leaving said agreements :)

It is probably one of the daftest manifestos I've ever seen and full of statements that no one involved had any right to make.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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That document should have concluded 'And there will be jam still for tea'. Then at least it could have been examined for literary merit. It is just a hopeless grab-bag of dreams.
 

Sync

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Britain and Brussels have each accused the other of holding up a decision on the City of London’s ability to do business in EU markets from next year, prolonging the financial services’ state of uncertainty about the future.

Both parties had agreed to complete assessments of the other’s regulatory regimes for financial services by Tuesday 30 June, with the expectation that they would deemed “equivalent”, allowing business to continue in the new year.
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, told the Eurofi financial regulation thinktank that the UK had answered only four of 28 questionnaires Brussels had sent seeking information about regulation of financial services.

“So we are not there yet”, he said. “We will only grant equivalences in those areas where it is clearly in the interest of the EU; of our financial stability; our investors and our consumers.”
In response, a Treasury spokesman compared the commission’s slow work with Whitehall’s efficiency in examining the level of equivalence of the two regulatory systems.

The spokesman said: “Both sides committed to completing equivalence assessments ahead of the summer. As the UK and EU start from a position of having similar financial services regulation, this should be a straightforward process.

“The UK has been able to complete our own assessments on time
and we are now ready to reach comprehensive findings of equivalence as soon as the EU is able to clarify its own position.”
Look, we haven't filled in YOUR assessments to allow us access YOUR market. But we filled in Our ones. Turns out? They say we CAN access your markets with no problems. Stop asking questions. WE USED UNION JACK CRAYONS!

It's all a little bit of a wasted exercise of course. There is equivalence today. But you can send 1000 questionnaires to the banks and the FCA and they can complete them. None of it will matter on Jan 2nd if the UK unilaterally changes its rules through legislation and domiciled companies have to follow that law.

It's not a question of equivalence now, it's a question of how will equivalence be measured next year and who will have the final say on it.
 

Sync

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The U.K. accepts that they’re not going to be allowed to be part of the EU’s Galileo project, so they’ve pumped a minimum of 400 million pounds into a bankrupt unproven project that their own space agency says won’t work.

The UK government has pledged to invest $500m (£400m) in bankrupt satellite company OneWeb, giving it a stake in a business that provides broadband from space.

The government, which has proven so far unwilling to take stakes in major British companies hit by the coronavirus pandemic, will receive a “significant equity share” in the loss-making company as it seeks to make “high-risk, high-payoff” investments of the kind advocated by 10 Downing Street adviser Dominic Cummings.
Dr Bleddyn Bowen, a space policy expert at the University of Leicester, told the Guardian last week it was a “tech and business gamble” that the satellites could be redesigned to allow navigation. The existing major satellite navigational systems all use satellites orbiting about 20,000km from the Earth’s surface, compared with only 1,200km for low-Earth orbits.

OneWeb’s network has been described as unsuitable for navigational purposes by the UK’s own space agency, according to internal documents cited by the Daily Telegraph.

Gotta spend money to make money.

 

owedtojoy

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The EU is a pretty united entity when it comes to Brexit .. no one is stepping up to argue for a compromise deal. Even Ireland, having seen itself almost shafted by Boris Johnson on Northern Ireland, is not stepping up.

Are the British as united over Brexit as they once seemed? The impulse during the election was "Get it over with!", but the British people have been conditioned to think there would be an easy exit. Johnson promised an "oven-ready" deal, a Johnsonism which translates as "I have not a clue what I am doing" or "Ask Dominic Cummings", but the British do not seem to have twigged that yet. Well, the Scots and Northern Ireland Unionists have, the Welsh are starting to, the English are lagging.


Samples in these countries were asked how they would vote in a referendum on EU membership.


Norway is a Single Market member, Serbia and Montenegro are applicants.

The solid votes in Hungary and Poland are notable, two countries that are in dispute with the EU over aspects of their governance.

The UK result in an eye-opener after the Tory landslide 6 months ago. But remember the British were told that (a) negotiations to leave would be short and easy, and (b) they could "have their cake and eat it" i.e enjoy the benefits of membership with no responsibility. Another poll recently had a similar result.


That is almost a thread to itself. However, it is too early to be complacent about the EU future. Some Europeans have been seriously disappointed about the EU and the Coronavirus. However, this has not meant an increase in trust of national governments, quite the reverse. It is as if countries wanted the EU to step up, and are disillusioned it did not.


Two surveys that seem to mean that the people of Europe want more, not less, of the EU.
 

Sync

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Hungary and Poland are in full "I'll take your money but I WON'T clean your driveway" mode. Happy to take the cash, happy to be part of the economic union. Actively seeking to ignore all the pesky laws and social agreements.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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Can we not, in an unusual move, just hand both countries over to the Russians as a Chrimbo pressie? It would certainly quell the demands from elsewhere in eastern Europe for a start.

If they are wavering chuck in Liechtenstein or something.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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Very simple, really. Just ask the Hungarians whether they prefer to be in a democracy or an autocracy. If they vote for autocracy then hand them over to Putin. No loss.
 


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