The Figures of Leo Varadkar's Extensive Welfare 'Fraud' Campaign are Based on Projections and Estimates.

Lara2

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 23, 2012
Messages
7,187
The Figures of Leo Varadkar's Extensive Welfare 'Fraud' Campaign are Based on Projections and Estimates.

The extensive campaign that is on billboards and the sides of buses and features daily on the radio, is based on projected figures only according to cllr Paddy Smyth on the Sean O'Rourke show yesterday: RTÉ Radio Player

According to Fine Gael, the Irish taxpayer is being defrauded by hundreds of millions of euro every year because of welfare fraud. It turns out that these figures are all based on projections and estimates.

Cllr Paddy Smyth: "100s of millions on welfare fraud"

Sean O'Rourke: "Where?"

Cllr Paddy Smyth: "The dept estimates that based on the amount of fraud they detect, they can then extrapolate out that if they hadn't detected that fraud that essentially their estimates would put that figure between 200 and 500 million."

Sean O'Rourke: "This is what we're not detecting?"

Cllr Paddy Smyth: "41 million was detected in fraud in 2015, if that went on undetected for several years then you can extrapolate this (200 million) figure. These are estimates. These are dept estimates they can project how much is likely to go on based on how much they detect, they can extrapolate that"
(So far Smyth has used the word 'extrapolate' no less than three times in the first few minutes.)

Sean O'Rourke: "These figures are based on fraud that hasn't happened?"

Cllr Paddy Smyth: "Estimates aren't an exact science"

Other contributors on the show were Gavin MacGleeson and Bernadette Gorman who was a former inspector in the DSP and had worked in the area for 3 decades. She was appalled at the vilification of welfare recipients who feel like scum after Varadkar's campaign.

According to Mac Gleeson, two thirds of fraud in 2011 were administative errors with 26 million being verifiable fraud.
He reckons 25 million to 50million, ie 0.1% to 0.2% of the entire welfare budget yet there are 300 people on the case working on welfare fraud. Mac Gleeson continues that there is currently 2.5 billion in fraud due to white collar crime and McAteer and Bowe have defrauded the state of 7.2 billion.

Cllr Paddy Smyth calls this "whataboutry"

So Fine "Kill The Poor" Gael are ignoring widespread fraud to the tune of billions while focusing on 25 million. Not only that, they are peddling lies with their projected figures.


I've added poster Venusian's from the Claire Byrne thread posts to my OP because I think they are relevant.

Venusian: Post #4824 http://www.politics.ie/forum/backstage/234069-claire-byrne-live-242.html

Perhaps this will help you see just how bad white collar crime is in Ireland, I am sure like any honest decent person you will see so that called welfare fraud is negligible and is just being used by Vacous Varadkar as a leadership election ploy for the low lifes to get excited about in FFG.

Anglo verdict: McAteer and Bowe found guilty of
Anglo verdict: McAteer and Bowe found guilty of €7.2bn fraud on the markets

The FFG government have always been complicit in ensuring that white collar crime in Ireland is rarely investigated let alone as you are aware there are very few prosecutions for it. As a minor example of failing to prosecute here is one.

In cases where an instance of corporate crime has been committed in Ireland and in other jurisdictions, decisions are made to let other jurisdictions take the lead. Irish authorities have become spectators.

Here’s one example from the past. When the Gallagher Group collapsed in the early 1980s, a six-year Garda investigation into alleged breaches by merchant banking of the Companies Acts, Larceny Acts and Central Banks Acts took place. The DPP decided not to prosecute.

When these offences were alleged to have been committed in the Republic, the Gallagher Group was also engaged in strikingly similar offences in the North. The response by the authorities there? A two-year investigation, which prompted Patrick Gallagher, chair of the group, to plead guilty to five offences. He was sentenced to two years imprisonment, despite the payment of significant compensation.

The Mahon Tribunal was a decent report, it looked at various aspects of corruption and bribery etc

1. Planning;
2. Conflicts of Interest;
3. Political Finance;
4. Lobbying;
5. Bribery, Corruption in Office, Money Laundering and the Misuse of Confidential
Information;
6. Asset Recovery; and
7. Miscellaneous Matters

you can read it here
http://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/defa...d,30749,en.pdf

But of course due to the FFG government The Department of Justice failed to even publish draft anti-corruption legislation that was promised in the wake of the publication of the final Mahon Tribunal report in 2012.

Fraud squad tasked with white collar crime investigation has no financial experts
http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland...ts-371165.html

FFG only looks after the elite and their golden circle cronies but will of course produce lies and inflated figures to target minuscule welfare fraud that are mainly due to accidental overpayments and are usually recovered.
Venusian #4825

In 2007, the accounting firm RSM Robson Rhodes estimated that Ireland was losing €2.5 billion a year from economic crime!
The direct financial cost of corruption and fraud is also staggering.
That’s €25 billion potentially lost to the Irish economy over a decade.
"The €2.5 billion was mostly lost through stolen goods, embezzlement, cheque and credit card fraud and employee collusion with fraudsters. Other employee-perpetrated crimes such as bribery and corruption and procurement fraud also ranked highly."

N.B.of course RSM Robson Rhodes didn't take account of the estimated €100 billion lost through fraud and corruption that was directly responsible for the collapse of our banking system in 2008.

The hate campaign by Vacuous Varadkar once again highlights everything that is wrong in the loony right of Irish politics, a typical "look over there" to divert the public's attention away from where the real crimes is and it wears a very very white collar.
Views please, on all of this. Is Leo Varadkar that desperate for votes that he has to resort to lies and spend a whole quarter of a million on those lies on extensive advertising.?



EDIT: 20_05_17: Transcript of Sean O'Rourke interview from Broadsheet.ie, link provided by Don Wan:

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2017/05/15/it-is-all-about-his-aspirations-to-be-leader-ive-never-seen-anything-like-it-in-my-life/#comments
 
Last edited:


LISTOWEL MAN

Well-known member
Joined
May 14, 2013
Messages
11,501
the majority of irish people work and pay their way

They're sick and tired of carrying the dole crowd

i hope every SW fraud gets caught
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
53,667
The real welfare fraud is the money going to Eastern Europe in sw for children who has never set foot here.
 

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
217,846
Welfare fraud is an issue and does need constant watching, but the advertising of it is political and panders largely to the FG typical voter.
 

statsman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,059
The extensive campaign that is on billboards and the sides of buses and features daily on the radio, is based on projected figures only according to cllr Paddy Smyth on the Sean O'Rourke show yesterday: RTÉ Radio Player

According to Fine Gael, the Irish taxpayer is being defrauded by hundreds of millions of euro every year because of welfare fraud. It turns out that these figures are all based on projections and estimates.

Cllr Paddy Smyth: "100s of millions on welfare fraud"

Sean O'Rourke: "Where?"

Cllr Paddy Smyth: "The dept estimates that based on the amount of fraud they detect, they can then extrapolate out that if they hadn't detected that fraud that essentially their estimates would put that figure between 200 and 500 million."

Sean O'Rourke: "This is what we're not detecting?"

Cllr Paddy Smyth: "41 million was detected in fraud in 2015, if that went on undetected for several years then you can extrapolate this (200 million) figure. These are estimates. These are dept estimates they can project how much is likely to go on based on how much they detect, they can extrapolate that"
(So far Smyth has used the word 'extrapolate' no less than three times in the first few minutes.)

Sean O'Rourke: "These figures are based on fraud that hasn't happened?"

Cllr Paddy Smyth: "Estimates aren't an exact science"

Other contributors on the show were Gavin MacGleeson and Bernadette Gorman who was a former inspector in the DSP and had worked in the area for 3 decades. She was appalled at the vilification of welfare recipients who feel like scum after Varadkar's campaign.

According to Mac Gleeson, two thirds of fraud in 2011 were administative errors with 26 million being verifiable fraud.
He reckons 25 million to 50million, ie 0.1% to 0.2% of the entire welfare budget yet there are 300 people on the case working on welfare fraud. Mac Gleeson continues that there is currently 2.5 billion in fraud due to white collar crime and McAteer and Bowe have defrauded the state of 7.2 billion.

Cllr Paddy Smyth calls this "whataboutry"

So Fine "Kill The Poor" Gael are ignoring widespread fraud to the tune of billions while focusing on 25 million. Not only that, they are peddling lies with their projected figures.


I've added poster Venusian's from the Claire Byrne thread posts to my OP because I think they are relevant.

Venusian: Post #4824 http://www.politics.ie/forum/backstage/234069-claire-byrne-live-242.html



Venusian #4825



Views please, on all of this. Is Leo Varadkar that desperate for votes that he has to resort to lies and spend a whole quarter of a million on those lies on extensive advertising.?
Extrapolation based on known trends is not lying. Just saying.

Leo's a dick, and I dislike a lot of what the campaign stands for, but an ignorance of statistical method is not OK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extrapolation
 

Herr Rommel

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 28, 2016
Messages
9,068
Divide and conquer seems to be the FG approach.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
53,667
the majority of irish people work and pay their way

They're sick and tired of carrying the dole crowd

i hope every SW fraud gets caught
SW was created because as a society noone should have to starve because they cant find a job.

There are also people who are employed on very low pay but also get sw legally.
 

Lara2

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 23, 2012
Messages
7,187
Extrapolation based on known trends is not lying. Just saying.

Leo's a dick, and I dislike a lot of what the campaign stands for, but an ignorance of statistical method is not OK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extrapolation
I'm sorry, but stating that there is an estimated quarter of a billion euro wasted on welfare fraud when there is more likely to be 25-50 million is actually LIES,
 

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
217,846
I'm sure there is loads of Corporate Welfare fraud but somehow I doubt that Leo is referring to that.
 

statsman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,059
I'm sorry, but stating that there is an estimated quarter of a billion euro wasted on welfare fraud when there is more likely to be 25-50 million is actually LIES,
How do you know which estimate is the more accurate? Where is your model that arrives at the 25-50m?
 

Franzoni

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2010
Messages
16,328
If it's anything like Burtons supposed crackdown of a few years ago i doubt we will see much action ...

Looking across the various threads recently and the upsurge of activity from certain posters i reckon poor Leo must not be getting great feedback from the FG grassroots and this is just a stunt to try and big up his profile as a hard man.......
 

Franzoni

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2010
Messages
16,328
I'm sure there is loads of Corporate Welfare fraud but somehow I doubt that Leo is referring to that.
A Channel 4 documentary a few years ago claimed the average white collar crime was in the region of $250k....

But then we can see from the unwillingness to tackle Garda malpractice why FF-FG run scared when it comes to the real criminality in our midst....
 

HenryHorace

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 22, 2017
Messages
2,983
"Not one red cent" he said. Let us never forget.
 

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
217,846
Welfare fraud is an issue and does need constant watching, but the advertising of it is political and panders largely to the FG typical voter.
Hasn't though the system in the Republic of Ireland become very tight since the collapse of the "Celtic Tiger"?

The only Political Parties I can see approving in anyway of Welfare fraud in Ireland are the "Socialist Party" and "People Before Profit".
 

Jimmy Two Times

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 21, 2016
Messages
3,545
Desperate stuff from Varadker. He knows though that it will tick a few boxes with a certain cohort who might think that if there was less welfare paid out fraudulent or not that would mean more money in their pockets. In reality this campaign will probably cost more than it will gain in terms of "money back" from fraudsters. Cynical Rightist tactics from Varadker. It'll go down well with the Trump fanboys around here.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top