The Government has a majority of 3, not 2

breakingnews

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I just wanted to raise this issue. There appears to be a media interpretation that the government has a majority of 2, after the Donegal SW byelection.

Wrong.

The government has a majority of 3, because the Ceann Comhairle is a FF TD and will always side with the government.

Government - 83 votes
Opposition - 80 votes
 


Buddies

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but if you have 2 defectors say
O keefe and Gogarty

Govt 81
Opposition 82

Which two people will save Ireland
 

hiding behind a poster

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I just wanted to raise this issue. There appears to be a media interpretation that the government has a majority of 2, after the Donegal SW byelection.

Wrong.

The government has a majority of 3, because the Ceann Comhairle is a FF TD and will always side with the government.

Government - 83 votes
Opposition - 80 votes
No, the Ceann Comhairle only has a casting vote - he only votes in the event of a tied vote. So take him out of the equation, and its 82-80. If for whatever reason you have a tie, say if Lowry and JHR abstained, then he casts his vote. But say Lowry votes against and JHR abstains, then its 82-81 against the government, and they fall. Because you cannot have a tied vote in a parliamentary democracy - there must be a decision every time.
 

BlackLion

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Which two people will save Ireland
which two people will milk this and make sure their deep pockets are never emptied. Oh and do the right thing in helping this country with our little problem.
 

Buddies

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Oh ya thats a better answer than my one!

Will FG stop the waffle though and outrightly reject the deal?

fudge it, do as many backwards deals with backward FF boys to bring it down
 

vanla sighs

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which two people will milk this and make sure their deep pockets are never emptied. Oh and do the right thing in helping this country with our little problem.
Whoever does do it will be hailed a hero, no matter who they are. Even a FF'er who did it now, even after all they've done, would be forgiven by the people. But will any of them have the guts to? Don't any of them recognise the opportunity (if not it'll be a first for an FF'er)
 

breakingnews

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No, the Ceann Comhairle only has a casting vote - he only votes in the event of a tied vote. So take him out of the equation, and its 82-80. If for whatever reason you have a tie, say if Lowry and JHR abstained, then he casts his vote. But say Lowry votes against and JHR abstains, then its 82-81 against the government, and they fall. Because you cannot have a tied vote in a parliamentary democracy - there must be a decision every time.
The CC won't ever vote against the government though? Therefore, he's a guaranteed vote for the government side - majority is 3.
 

Trophonius

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Current state of parties:

Dail vacancies: 3 (Donegal North East, Dublin South, Waterford)

FF: 70
GP: 6
FF/IND: 3 (Devins, Harney, Scanlon)

Total: 79

FG: 51
LAB: 19
SF: 5
IND: 4 (Broughan, Grealish, McGrath, O'Sullivan)

Total: 79

In hands of 4 Ind:

Joe Behan, Mattie McGrath, Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy Rae

It's up to those 4. FF just need 2 to side with them and CC will then cast deciding vote.
 

Squire Allworthy

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Serious question.

If the Greens, or a few of them, in a fit of righteous outrage decided to pull out of government in the current context would it gain them any votes. Not supporting now has to be worth many more votes than supporting.
 

Buddies

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Andrews, Gogarty, O keefe

add in the other 20 who know they are beaten at election time and we as a society can convince 2 to do the right thing

Unless FG or Lab are abstaining on budget day, surely not now though? they can't say it till the day now as they keep saying
 

hiding behind a poster

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The CC won't ever vote against the government though? Therefore, he's a guaranteed vote for the government side - majority is 3.
No, because he only casts his vote in the event of a tied vote from all the others - do you understand that?
 

vanla sighs

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Serious question.

If the Greens, or a few of them, in a fit of righteous outrage decided to pull out of government in the current context would it gain them any votes. Not supporting now has to be worth many more votes than supporting.
There's no doubt it would gain them votes, they forced an election the whole country is crying out for, of course they would gain more votes. Now there's no way they would have the same number of TD's returned but a couple of seats could be safe for them in such a scenario - not so if they did nothing. Then it is a wipeout.
 

delahzo

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It was suggested on Week in Poltics tonight that Trevor Sargeant forced the hand of Gormley saying 'he could not stand this another day' re: the GP being a bit pregnant sinc last Monday.

Maybe Sargeant might jump??? (Some hope I know)
 

breakingnews

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Current state of parties:

Dail vacancies: 3 (Donegal North East, Dublin South, Waterford)

FF: 70GP: 6
FF/IND: 3 (Devins, Harney, Scanlon)

Total: 79

FG: 51
LAB: 19
SF: 5
IND: 4 (Broughan, Grealish, McGrath, O'Sullivan)

Total: 79

In hands of 4 Ind:

Joe Behan, Mattie McGrath, Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy Rae

It's up to those 4. FF just need 2 to side with them and CC will then cast deciding vote.
I think that figure is incorrect.

FF have 74 seats (including Cooper-Flynn,the TDs that lost the whip, the CC)
Greens 6
Ind 3

= 83
 

Buddies

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Serious question.

If the Greens, or a few of them, in a fit of righteous outrage decided to pull out of government in the current context would it gain them any votes. Not supporting now has to be worth many more votes than supporting.
This point was well put the other day, In order to save hides they don't need to jump too high, they are at 2% now, 5% would be a great day for them so thats 3 in 100 people

Would 3 in 100 people vote for them if they went viral? the 2% aren't supporting them because the want to prop up the govt, so they wont lose support that is sure

I think 3% isn't an unreasonable bounce, 3 weeks to polling day, apologise and say enough is enough, seek forgivness and screw FF royally

A week is a long time in politics, if the 'markets' don't react well, this could happen
 

Trophonius

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I think that figure is incorrect.

FF have 74 seats (including Cooper-Flynn,the TDs that lost the whip, the CC)
Greens 6
Ind 3

= 83
Last election FF had 77 plus the CC.

Flynn goes from Ind to FF (78)
Brennan dies (77)
Behan resigns whip(76)
McDaid loses whip (75)
Gallagher becomes MEP (74)
Devins and Scanlon resign whip (72)
Cullen resigns from Dail (71)
McGrath loses whip (70)

Definite Gov vote is 70FF + 6GP +3INDS (Devins, Scanlon and Harney)

McGrath and Behan up in air at moment on how they will vote. Same with ML and JHR
 


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