The Govt falling this year - any prices in the bookies for this?

bobbysands81

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A quick call out to P.ie gamblers, I know that Paddy Power have odds on when the next election is going to be called... but do any bookies have odds on when the Govt might actually fall?

I wouldn't mind a little wager on them not to last the year...

Thanks.
 


bobbysands81

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I can't click into that in work mate but when I hover over it it says "year of next election" - is there odds for Govt falling this year?

I think that the Govt will fall this year but it'll be next year before there's an election so it's the odds on that I'm looking for.
 

ballot stuffer

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LeDroit

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I can't click into that in work mate but when I hover over it it says "year of next election" - is there odds for Govt falling this year?

I think that the Govt will fall this year but it'll be next year before there's an election so it's the odds on that I'm looking for.
Surfing the net in work? You wouldn't be a civil servant now would ya?!
 

jacko

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most likely day for govt to fall is day of or days after budget

it would fall in 2010 but election would be in first week in January - hence the long odds on a 2010 election
 

culmore

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the sooner they fall the better, hope it is on wedensday of this week
 

bobbysands81

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most likely day for govt to fall is day of or days after budget

it would fall in 2010 but election would be in first week in January - hence the long odds on a 2010 election
That's exactly why I'm not looking for odds as to when the election will take place but when the Govternment will fall. Obviously two completely different things.
 

Baztard

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Everyone is convinced that the Government is not going to go beyond 2011 and could possibly fall this year. On the basis of the odds quoted above then it would appear to be a decent bet

Stick €100 on both 2010 and 2011 (total stake €200)
If its 2010 then you win €750 + original stake €100 less stake on 2011 €100 = €750
or
if its 2011 you win €200 + original stake €100 less stake on 2010 €100 = €200

At the very least you get your money back and could make a nice little earner.
Your b*ll*xed if they get to 2012.
 

Anorakphobia

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If 1/2 on 2011 is available in 10-12 days time, it probably represents as clsoe to buying moneya s you wil get.

The government will do well to survive next two weeks.

Backbenchers fleeing like rats.
Three by elections
Budget
IMF
Route to a Lenihan no vote coronation now totally blocked by Lowry and Healy Rae meaning it's Cowen all the wway to Summer 2012 or a general election. Which do you think is more likely??

This Government hasn't got a rashers of now getting to the finish line in 2012 and privately they already know this.
 

bobbysands81

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15/2 for this year. 2 to 1 on for 2011
That's not for the Govt to fall though, those odds are for an election this year.

I think the Govt will fall this year... but the election won't be until next year. I'm not looking for the odds as to when the election will be but when the Govt will fall.

Are there odds out there for when the Govt will fall?
 

Odyessus

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That's not for the Govt to fall though, those odds are for an election this year.

I think the Govt will fall this year... but the election won't be until next year. I'm not looking for the odds as to when the election will be but when the Govt will fall.

Are there odds out there for when the Govt will fall?
But if the government falls, it is almost inevitable we will have a general election within 30 days, unless the president decides not to dissolve the Dail, but give some other deputy the chance to form a government.

Do you think this is likely?
 

bobbysands81

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But if the government falls, it is almost inevitable we will have a general election within 30 days, unless the president decides not to dissolve the Dail, but give some other deputy the chance to form a government.

Do you think this is likely?
I think it could easily fall some time after the Budget but before Christmas thus an election in the new year...
 

Tom245

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If the government falls an election must be held within min 21 days and max 28 days of the dissolution.
 

redhead101

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I think it could easily fall some time after the Budget but before Christmas thus an election in the new year...
Not sure I understand the significance of the distinction between when this Govt falls and when election takes place. It's usually a matter of weeks between one and the other.
 

Oldira1

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I think it could easily fall some time after the Budget but before Christmas thus an election in the new year...
Highly, Highly unlikely. No party wants to be canvassing over the two week Christmas Holiday. Not a chance.

Budget wull pass on day but will fall over the finance bill early in new year. Election in February.
 


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